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PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

Anti Marine Layer

By Anti Marine Layer
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Posted by The Ms. Anthrop,

Really, really lovely cumulonimbus action tonight! I just happened to have my drone in the car and got some solid shots of DT Seattle/Lake Washington/Mercer Island/Bellevue looking north from Skyway. Alas, the focal length of the lens doesn't do the vertical height justice and my WB was off rendering it into semi-gross HDR territory, but still... fun looking weather! It was quite windy- I was flying right at 390 ft and the drone was giving me all sorts of warnings about sustained winds/gusts. 

insta pin. glorious cloud pics!

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Posted by Gradient Keeper,

A most incredible snow storm. At times the snowfall rates have been as heavy or slightly heavier than January 2017. Temp 27.5, Dewpoint: 27.1 with gusty east wind and very heavy snow continuing. I'm at 11 1/2" now! UNBELIEVABLE!!!! This pic does no justice at all.

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

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Posted by ajreich,

NBM is quite an interesting product! Their weighting algorithm is moderately complex and dynamic, though does has some drawbacks as we saw yesterday. For those who don't know, NBM is an attempt by NOAA to create a super probabilistic forecast model that ingests output from all the models above and outputs forecast guidance for local offices that help them to gauge the relative odds of particular weather outcomes. The 'special sauce' is the post-processing, normalization and weighting that they d
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Posted by BLI snowman,

18 at PDX. First low in the teens there since January 2017.
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Gradient Keeper
Gradient Keeper

A most incredible snow storm. At times the snowfall rates have been as heavy or slightly heavier than January 2017. Temp 27.5, Dewpoint: 27.1 with gusty east wind and very heavy snow continuing. I'm a

OysterPrintout
OysterPrintout

WHAT an event. Huge overperformance for us at this location. Measured 5.5" of snow. Just incredible.   

SilverFallsAndrew
SilverFallsAndrew

Saw this posted on social media. 

Posted Images

Perturbed Member Grand Master

Perturbed Member

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Doinko said:

UKMET kind of has something similar to the ICON to the north of the river too. Most models seem to think we'll do well here

Yeah, enough models have shown these solutions where we get some explosive/convective heavy bands dropping several inches somewhere in NW OR that we can't rule out the possibility but I'm not gonna bet on it. 

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted

Oh here we go. 

C588F0CE-A34D-40C1-90AD-FA9A80E24468.jpeg

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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OysterPrintout Experienced

OysterPrintout

Posted
Posted

On one hand I'm really rooting for the west and south metro to do well considering how badly they've busted when I've managed to do pretty well in the last few years. On the other hand, if they score and I bust, I'm required by forum rules to become completely unbearable until the next event here.

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted

Maybe a bit less for some valley spots, but looks like about 4-6” up here. Dang. 

398A3C8B-F5F1-400E-9095-AD180105C977.jpeg

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

One thing for sure is the ECMWF is most certainly cold enough for the weekend system to produce snow.  The question is will it turn to rain before the precip ends.  Also loving the fact it shows a hard freeze for most places Sunday night again.

This is shaping up to be a respectable event overall.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Doinko Grand Master

Doinko

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

One thing for sure is the ECMWF is most certainly cold enough for the weekend system to produce snow.  The question is will it turn to rain before the precip ends.  Also loving the fact it shows a hard freeze for most places Sunday night again.

This is shaping up to be a respectable event overall.

If we can get some snow into the cold down here and then maybe an inch or so going out then that will be great

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

Meanwhile....the GEFS shows 850s of -5 or lower continuing indefinitely.  Quite impressive!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted
Just now, Doinko said:

If we can get some snow into the cold down here and then maybe an inch or so going out then that will be great

I think you will have some snow on Wednesday night.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

Just incredible how every system shown on the ECMWF has the entire column cold enough for snow for most areas.  Every night is shown to freeze at this point.  Nice!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Some snow next week too

 

sn10_024h-imp.us_nw.png

California gets SLAMMED!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

I see the Seattle folks are still pouting.  Pretty surprising given all of the opportunities coming up and how cold it's going to get.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

The temp has dropped a couple of degrees here in just the last few minutes.  It's coming!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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MossMan Grand Master

MossMan

Posted
Posted

A dark night without the Christmas lights! Battery backup for our Elon internet is working great though. Not going to bother with the generator until the morning if it’s still out. 

D52EA4C0-A2E6-4C38-A753-58A4F28235C5.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Gummy Rising Star

Gummy

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I see the Seattle folks are still pouting.  Pretty surprising given all of the opportunities coming up and how cold it's going to get.

It has been a steady stream of pink snow maps with not much to show for it this winter.  The overrunning event on Sunday shows some promise but that is still a ways out.

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted

Nice trough, heading south at the end of the EURO. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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NWbyNW Grand Master

NWbyNW

Posted
Posted

Wind calmed down a few hours ago here, but there is a ton of unrelated police activity that I keep watching outside.  No idea what they are up too.  Keep looking in the woods.  Also some dolt drove into a light pole right in front of the cop and then tried to speed off like nothing happened.  Weird night. 

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Skagit Weather Veteran

Skagit Weather

Posted
Posted

Wind gusted to 40 mph and picked up just over an inch of rain today. That means about a quarter of my rainfall for the year so far fell today. Looking forward to cold temps and hopefully a dusting of snow in the coming days.

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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Frontal Snowsquall Grand Master

Frontal Snowsquall

Posted
Posted
38 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Sunday AM event

sn10_024h-imp.us_nw.png

 

38 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Maybe a bit less for some valley spots, but looks like about 4-6” up here. Dang. 

398A3C8B-F5F1-400E-9095-AD180105C977.jpeg

Good to see!  The weekend snow event looks to be coming into focus now. There will probably even be snow cover on the ground from the midweek snowstorm as well.

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SouthHillFrosty Grand Master

SouthHillFrosty

Posted
Posted

Just spent the last 2 hours trying to save a 10x20ft tent that I had set up in backyard for my finances baby shower this past weekend. Every pole was broken on it even though it was tied and weighed down properly. Big mess up on my part🙃

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Crystal clear here. 42F.  I’d appreciate a kuchera snow map from the euro for up this way, if you have a chance. 

For when?  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Crystal clear here. 42F.  I’d appreciate a kuchera snow map from the euro for up this way, if you have a chance. 

Here is first round

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_snow_kuchera-7175200.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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