PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[ShawniganLake]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Here is first round

Thanks. Looks like 3-5” here.  Not too worried about snow maps for next weekend at this point. 

[snow_wizard]

The EPS shows at least 50% more snow for Sunday than the 12z run.  That one is looking solid at this point.

[SpaceRace22]

Here's some cherry picked hopium for you Portlanders. Pepto is still in the cards!

[snow_wizard]

You would almost think this is the GEFS, but it's the EPS!

[Meatyorologist]

48 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

Over 8 feet of snow in the San Berdoos over the next 10 days!

Those mountains have been sort of shafted this winter compared to the Sierras, often getting the warm sector of the storm track. Nice to see them score a cold system, too.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Here's some cherry picked hopium for you Portlanders. Pepto is still in the cards!

I've seen stranger things.

[snow_wizard]

I think people are going to look back on this Feb 15 to March 15 period as being top drawer when it's all said and done.  A second sharper round of cold looks very possible in early March, and it's nothing but cold until then as well.

[snow_wizard]

I'm going to be very interested to see if snow actually verifies on the N Cal coast or not.  It sure seems possible.

[snow_wizard]

I'm feeling all warm and fuzzy about this.  I hope it's a theme for the coming spring.

 

[SpaceRace22]

9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm going to be very interested to see if snow actually verifies on the N Cal coast or not.  It sure seems possible.

I've been super intrigued by this too. Eureka stands a real shot at getting absolutely buried. Their all time snowfall record is only 3.4", but they could easily double or triple that if temps are even half a degree cooler than modeled or if the timing lines up right.

This is almost all terrain bleed, but the Euro Ensembles are pretty hilarious for Eureka/Arcata.

[ShawniganLake]

Power came back. Wind is easing off here!

[Phil]

2 hours ago, MossMan said:

This was about 15min ago, much stronger now, trees are cracking and power is surging! 

Sounds like the ocean.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The real event for Washington will be this wind storm, been blowing hard here all day. 

[Perturbed Member]

06z NAM still believes this is a complete nonevent for basically everyone. Its handling of the low looks pretty wildly different than all other models. 

[Doinko]

Nam is still way worse than every single other model

 

 

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The real event for Washington will be this wind storm, been blowing hard here all day. 

We got off easy here.  This low took a highly unusual path, and resulted in some localized very windy conditions.  In the end I think cold and snow will be a bigger deal than people are envisioning right now.  We're talking about some of the lowest temps on record for Seattle this late in the season.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

06z NAM still believes this is a complete nonevent for basically everyone. Its handling of the low looks pretty wildly different than all other models. 

Not going to happen like that.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

We got off easy here.  This low took a highly unusual path, and resulted in some localized very windy conditions.  In the end I think cold and snow will be a bigger deal than people are envisioning right now.  We're talking about some of the lowest temps on record for Seattle this late in the season.

The cold will definitely be noticeable but from the looks of it I'd be surprised if we see much of any snow this week at all. This weekend is a different story though. That looks to deliver.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Not going to happen like that.

Way to dry.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I was hoping to get a snow event over at my cabin this weekend but the angle this system is coming in is not good for there this weekend.  Cascades will block almost everything.  I've seen atmospheric river events drop 3 feet of snow at Steven's pass and the east slopes and only get a dusting at my cabin, incredible really.

Edited February 21, 2023 by MR.SNOWMIZER

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Looks like Thursday and Friday at my cabin will be about 12-18 for a high and around -10 range for a low. Impressive for late season. 

[Doinko]

RGEM is farther south, probably won't be great for PDX but the valley should do good on this run

[snow_wizard]

11 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Looks like Thursday and Friday at my cabin will be about 12-18 for a high and around -10 range for a low. Impressive for late season. 

Yeah....people are really losing sight of what an impressive late season event this is going to be.  Besides that it looks to go on for a long time.  Even when it moderates it will still be well below normal, and we might see another round of much below normal later on.

We could be looking at an impressively cold Nov - Mar average this time around.

[Doinko]

Never mind, I spoke too soon. 6"+ for me!

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This is my wife's 69 camaro I built for her and she absolutely loved the car. I was in the process of installing modern disk brakes on the front of the car and during the project she passed away from the cancer. The car has sat in the same spot taken apart since August of 2016 and I finally got the will power do start working on it again. Still tough to deal with after all these years.

[Doinko]

ICON is going to be great for PDX, especially west metro. Not as good as the 00z but still nice

[snow_wizard]

Just love the analogs to the coming pattern.  Many from the 50s, 60s, and 70s.  Almost all 1991 or earlier.

[Dave]

10 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Never mind, I spoke too soon. 6"+ for me!

 

A lot for me, TWL, Eujunga, and PaulB.

[SpaceRace22]

Still not great for all of Portland, but it's worth noting that the 3km NAM is wildly different from its 12km counterpart. The 3km says that this is absolutely not a non-event for much of the southern metro area.

 

[SpaceRace22]

06z GFS. Nothing earth shattering in either direction, except maybe for areas north of Seattle now which are a little more blue.

[Dave]

10 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

06z GFS. Nothing earth shattering in either direction, except maybe for areas north of Seattle now which are a little more blue.

Definitely snowier down here. I would love for everyone to get at least an inch or two, if not more. Since this event will be showery in nature, there will always be winners and losers.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

There is a pretty clear trend starting to develop with this. The moisture could be pretty anemic unfortunately. 

[Dave]

Looks like the NWS is going with a non zero chance of single digits down here in Eugene. I'd assume this would indicate some snow on the ground. I'm still gonna roll the dice. I'll disconnect my hoses, but leave my sprinkler system unwinterized.

 

[umadbro]

6z euro

[snow maniac]

Light winds all day yesterday, and barley a 10th of rain. Rainshadow in full effect. Not expecting any snow whatsoever here.

[MossMan]

Still powerless. Will need too fire up the generator soon.

Wind has been blowing all night but nothing like we had late last evening. 

[MossMan]

3 hours ago, SpaceRace22 said:

06z GFS. Nothing earth shattering in either direction, except maybe for areas north of Seattle now which are a little more blue.

That is a decent improvement for my area. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z NAM looks way too dry.

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

 

Not looking good for Portland. The FV3 is great for QPF in my experience just like the ICON. It's going to be too dry when it matters.

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Model trends are definitely not our friend in the past 12-18 hours. I’d say folks should be concerned, but not upset. Yet…