PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[ShawniganLake]

20 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

As I watched it I couldn’t help hearing in my head the bus driver repeating “sorry” over and over in a heavy Canadian accent.

 

[TT-SEA]

Just a lovely start to February... mostly sunny and 45.   

But unlike 4 years ago today there is no real cold or snow in sight.  

[RentonHill]

Interesting..

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Interesting..

EPS is definitely more meaningful than the GEFS.    Unfortunately it trended worse in the mid range with more focus on CA.    Sort of feels like a chasing the carrot situation right now.   Two weeks ago we thought early February was going to be the time to shine.   Sometimes it's a delayed not denied situation though.   And other times it's just ends up being denied.  

[Doinko]

1 hour ago, TacomaWx said:

I don’t get some people saying this is the most boring winter ever (western WA folks) Do you guys even remember 2012-2013 or 2015-2016? Even 2019-2020 was worse than this one…maybe a little better in PDX with the mid March event. 

2019-2020 was a bit snowier than this winter but I'd take this winter, the high of 25 degrees in December was pretty great.

I kind of liked 2015/2016. PDX topped 15" of rain in December 2015 and it was their wettest month ever. Then in January we had a subfreezing high with a small snow event. Nothing else besides that but November to January was fun.

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

EPS is definitely more meaningful than the GEFS.    Unfortunately it trended worse in the mid range with more focus on CA.    Sort of feels like a chasing the carrot situation right now.   Two weeks ago we thought early February was going to be the time to shine.   Sometimes it's a delayed not denied situation though.   And other times it's just ends up being denied.  

Agree...SW first..then maybe some sliders for us starting to show up in the long range

[RentonHill]

[RentonHill]

[Deweydog]

Gorgeous day!

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, RentonHill said:

Going to end up being a pretty blockbuster winter for California and the Sierras.

[ShawniganLake]

36 and cloudy. The snow is drippy  

[Phil]

2 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

Might be they’re one and only. Nothing else in sight and the pattern looks pretty unfavorable as a whole as we move deeper into February. Of course they can occasionally get pounded in March so they have a little more time to play with.

Oh I’m sure it’ll be March. Textbook La Niña/+QBO evolution w/ IPWP MJO blowtorching the entire east coast mid/late Feb while W1 strat ongoing, then flip to cold/stormy 1st week of March.

Last 3 -ENSO/+QBO w/ W1 dominant Feb (2016/17, 2013/14, 2008/09) all had March as the dominant “winter” month out here.

But before that, mid/late Feb is gonna blowtorch massively out here. Possibly record breaking.  

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

More cold air in BC on this run... that is definitely an improvement.   

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, Phil said:

Oh I’m sure it’ll be March. Textbook La Niña/+QBO evolution w/ IPWP MJO blowtorching the entire east coast mid/late Feb while W1 strat ongoing, then flip to cold/stormy 1st week of March.

Last 3 -ENSO/+QBO w/ W1 dominant Feb (2016/17, 2013/14, 2008/09) all had March as the dominant “winter” month out here.

But before that, mid/late Feb is gonna blowtorch massively out here. Possibly record breaking.  

Sounds like a nice SE ridge in mid/late February then. Let’s see how that works out for us.

[Phishy Wx]

black ice from previous events with a skiff of snow on top, the worst.

 

we had that yesterday and this morning.  wrecks all over town.  glad I work from home.  wife's commute is usually 7 min, took 30 this morning

[Gradient Keeper]

Canadian ensembles Alert

[Gradient Keeper]

Welcome to February (The green thing is supposed to be Fred the Yard Slug)

Fox12 7-Day Forecast

Well, it looks like Fred the Yard Slug(c)Rob 2022 may see his shadow yet again this year. Just like last year I have no idea what this means in terms of a late Winter or an early arrival of Spring. Why a Yard Slug you might ask? Well there aren't any Ground Hogs in my back yard. I did copyright it though, but I will allow permission for you to use it. Neat.

[SouthHillFrosty]

4 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Canadian ensembles Alert

Post it

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 hours ago, Skagit Weather said:

The lack of snowfall, especially on the East Coast, inspired a discussion earlier this week about whether or not parts of the country have had a "good" winter. I was intrigued to see if I could visually represent how much snow had fallen, especially compared to average.

NOAA through the National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center (NOHRSC) has a product available for the last few years that estimates the amount of snow that falls each season.

National Map

Interactive (zoomable) Map

I'm not exactly sure everything that goes into the algorithm, but it sounds like it uses a combination of official station snowfall records, CoCoRahs observations, radar estimates, and an algorithm that accounts for terrain and historic precipitation. I imagine the estimates aren't perfect, but in my experience that actually do a pretty good job at snowfall estimations in Western WA. I believe the resolution of the data is around 3km, but it may be slightly higher than that.

I don't love the color bounds presented by the official data, so one of the first things I did was make the bins finer so that we could see snowfall differences between 6" and 12" and changed the color scheme slightly. Here's the map of the snowfall up to Jan 29th for the PNW:

You can see how much of Washington north of Everett has picked up above 8" of snow this winter while PDX to SEA has seen 1-4" and there's not much south of PDX.

NOHRSC has data for every winter from 2008-09 to 2022-23. Obviously that's not completely representative of historical climate norms, but 15 years should be relatively representative of the current climate state. I took the data from all 15 years and averaged it together to get both an average seasonal snowfall (how much snow usually falls during the water year (Oct 1-Sept 30) and how much snow falls usually during the season to date (Jan 29 was when I first got my data).

Here is the average season to date snowfall for the PNW (so 9/30-01/29):

And here is the average seasonal snowfall (total) for the PNW:

For the entire season the Seattle area averages 6-8", BLI averages 8-12", PDX averages 4-6". I also highlighted the max average value (both in this image and nationally) which to no-one's surprise is Mount Baker with 835" of annual snowfall (look for the star). There might be specific locations that receive greater snowfall, but they were not detected with this resolution of data.

And here's the national average seasonal snowfall:

Those maps really underscore how much snowier this winter has been IMBY than in the region as a whole

[Gradient Keeper]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Post it

I will when it's done. It was looking really good, but the ridge gets too far west. It's coming!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Welcome to February (The green thing is supposed to be Fred the Yard Slug)

Fox12 7-Day Forecast

Well, it looks like Fred the Yard Slug(c)Rob 2022 may see his shadow yet again this year. Just like last year I have no idea what this means in terms of a late Winter or an early arrival of Spring. Why a Yard Slug you might ask? Well there aren't any Ground Hogs in my back yard. I did copyright it though, but I will allow permission for you to use it. Neat.

If Fred sees his shadow he gets afraid of drying out, he heads back underground, and it portends an early summer dry season.

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

If Fred sees his shadow he gets afraid of drying out, he heads back underground, and it portends an early summer dry season.

That makes sense!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

That makes sense!

This needs to go viral. We need 2-2 to be Slug Day in the Northwest.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z CMCE still ripe with potential

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

This needs to go viral. We need 2-2 to be Slug Day in the Northwest.

I agree yes.

[Cascadia_Wx]

34 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Welcome to February (The green thing is supposed to be Fred the Yard Slug)

Fox12 7-Day Forecast

Well, it looks like Fred the Yard Slug(c)Rob 2022 may see his shadow yet again this year. Just like last year I have no idea what this means in terms of a late Winter or an early arrival of Spring. Why a Yard Slug you might ask? Well there aren't any Ground Hogs in my back yard. I did copyright it though, but I will allow permission for you to use it. Neat.

If PDX stays at 55 or lower the next 7-days it will be their longest such stretch since 2016-17.

[T-Town]

2 hours ago, TacomaWx said:

There’s a stormy joke in there somewhere. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

49 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

black ice from previous events with a skiff of snow on top, the worst.

 

we had that yesterday and this morning.  wrecks all over town.  glad I work from home.  wife's commute is usually 7 min, took 30 this morning

Bet you can’t wait until you can move to a place with colder and snowier winters/milder winters.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, RentonHill said:

That block over the Beaufort Sea/Western Arctic plays a crucial role insofar as continental cold is concerned.

[RentonHill]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

That block over the Beaufort Sea/Western Arctic plays a crucial role insofar as continental cold is concerned.

Like in terms of keeping it bottled up? if anything tries to retro

[TacomaWx]

February is ON the table for something possibly. 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

February is ON the table for something possibly. 

Have to say that it feels pretty spring-like out there in the sun today.   Might also be noticing the slight increase in sun angle as well.     Quite the contrast from how this period looked a couple weeks ago when it seemed like winter might come roaring back just as the calendar turned to February.  

[MossMan]

Well if we get a decent to epic event in February then I will call the 2022/23 season a success! And if we do get measurable snowfall in February then we will have had (at my house) measurable snowfall each month from November-February! Yesterday’s snowfall was a stretch but I would definitely call it enough to be measurable. 

[MossMan]

Tim is ready for his vacation! I forgot how much he dislikes snow after January! 

[TacomaWx]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Have to say that it feels pretty spring-like out there in the sun today.   Might also be noticing the slight increase in sun angle as well.     Quite the contrast from how it looked a couple weeks ago when it seemed like winter might come roaring back just as the calendar turned to February.  

Yeah, we will see. There’s definitely a chance something happens later this month though despite how it feels right meow. 

[TacomaWx]

Still some ice in the pond here in federal way! 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Yeah, we will see. There’s definitely a chance something happens later this month though despite how it feels right meow. 

For sure... its probably likely that something more is coming.   

[Deweydog]

I’d be VERY surprised if someone somewhere didn’t see something before the end of the month. Something somewhere at some point is coming.

[TacomaWx]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I’d be VERY surprised if someone somewhere didn’t see something before the end of the month. Something somewhere at some point is coming.

Next time I’ll try to be even more vague with my prediction for you

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Tim is ready for his vacation! I forgot how much he dislikes snow after January! 

I actually wish it was more nasty in the lead up to our trip.   It's too nice to make me really want to escape right now.   I find myself wandering around the yard in shorts enjoying the sun while it lasts and starting to get the itch to do spring yard work. 

[TT-SEA]

But I also know not to take the snowblower back down to the dilapidated shed for at least another 6 weeks.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

But I also know not take the snow blower back to the dilapidated shed for at least another 6 weeks.

I’d actually appreciate it if you do that so it’ll end up snowing plz. Randy take the plow off the tractor as well thanks. 

[MossMan]

6 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I’d actually appreciate it if you do that so it’ll end up snowing plz. Randy take the plow off the tractor as well thanks. 

I did think about putting the mower deck back on and doing some mowing after that January heat! 

[TacomaWx]

Just now, MossMan said:

I did think about putting the mower deck back on and doing some mowing after that January heat! 

Well atleast we know who to blame for this event turning into an arctic fart instead of a blast. 

[TT-SEA]

Another sign that it's still winter... de-icer stripes on the road.   They did this on Sunday night in preparation for a freeze up but it just dried out quickly and was not really needed.   Usually the rain washes it away in 3 or 4 days but that has not happened yet. 

[Deweydog]

17 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Next time I’ll try to be even more vague with my prediction for you

If we’re sticking with the very controversial 2006 analog, we had the big cold-*ss trough in early March. We’ve been on a bit of an accelerated timeline since the jet retraction started during the final 1/3 of January instead of early February…

[TT-SEA]

Looks like we had a fairly climo spring in 2006... which would be massive improvement over 2022.    Out here, we had about 35 more dry days in the spring of 2006 compared to the spring of 2022.     Climo would seem heavenly compared to the mess that was last spring and early summer.    

[Tyler Mode]

31 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I actually wish it was more nasty in the lead up to our trip.   It's too nice to make me really want to escape right now.   I find myself wandering around the yard in shorts enjoying the sun while it lasts and starting to get the itch to do spring yard work. 

Same here.  I've walked my yard 3 times already, deciding where to plant new things etc.  If it ain't gonna snow, might as well be spring haha.

[TacomaWx]

13 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

If we’re sticking with the very controversial 2006 analog, we had the big cold-*ss trough in early March. We’ve been on a bit of an accelerated timeline since the jet retraction started during the final 1/3 of January instead of early February…

I’d take a February 2thousandsix redux. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

4 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

Same here.  I've walked my yard 3 times already, deciding where to plant new things etc.  If it ain't gonna snow, might as well be spring haha.

Sunny and warm here too, the kind of weather that gets downvotes from many in these forums.