PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

 

Not looking good for Portland. The FV3 is great for QPF in my experience just like the ICON. It's going to be too dry when it matters.

 

 

Ok this kicks things up a notch… Also I am shocked how anemic this front is.  Not a good sign. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

11 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

 

Not looking good for Portland. The FV3 is great for QPF in my experience just like the ICON. It's going to be too dry when it matters.

 

 

The FV3 looks great for folks south of the metro area, but it would be a very hollow victory to see everyone up there left out.

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The FV3 looks great for folks south of the metro area, but it would be a very hollow victory to see everyone up there left out.

The only model left that gives PDX meaningful QPF tomorrow afternoon and evening is the GRAF. I think the best we can hope for up here is 1-2 spotty inches. Most areas will get skunked or get very little. Better odds south of us, but I am not convinced that anybody from Eugene to Salem will score big either. Much better odds at a widespread couple of inches though in my opinion.

Thursday sure looks cold for the Portland area either way. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

The only model left that gives PDX meaningful QPF tomorrow afternoon and evening is the GRAF. I think the best we can hope for up here is 1-2 spotty inches. Most areas will get skunked or get very little. Better odds south of us, but I am not convinced that anybody from Eugene to Salem will score big either. Much better odds at a widespread couple of inches though in my opinion.

Thursday sure looks cold for the Portland area either way. 

Yeah, I am hoping things turn out better for snowfall than the valentines trough. Overall this will or at least should be a bigger event either way. 
 

I have been impressed with how quickly the cold airmass moved in. We were still 40 at 1a, but are now down to 33. Anything that falls from here on will be snow. 

[MossMan]

Fired up the generator. Currently 39 degrees. 59 in the house. Other than some branches it looks like we did just fine around the property. 

[TacomaWx]

Still think we atleast get a trace to 1/2” here this week. Sunday morning looks pretty good for now…maybe 1-2”. hopefully some of the longer range stuff works out. Looking like just about everyone on the forum will get atleast some snow in the next few days…but Oregon will likely get the best of this event overall. 

[TacomaWx]

It was fairly breezy last night but nothing insane. Unless it’s winds of the offshore variety…40-50mph southerly winds just aren’t too exciting for me anymore. Once we get into high wind warning territory then it’s more interesting. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

It was fairly breezy last night but nothing insane. Unless it’s winds of the offshore variety…40-50mph southerly winds just aren’t too exciting for me anymore. Once we get into high wind warning territory then it’s more interesting. 

The wind ripped here all day and evening.  Elevation played a role. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

62mph and Whidbey island was max gust 

Edited February 21, 2023 by MR.SNOWMIZER

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The wind ripped here all day and evening.  Elevation played a role. 

We had 35-45mph gusts all day and night…but atleast IMBY it’s not something we don’t see atleast a few times a year. Tacoma is a pretty windy location once the southerlies start rolling compared to most places in the Seattle area. 

[LowerGarfield]

7 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Those mountains have been sort of shafted this winter compared to the Sierras, often getting the warm sector of the storm track. Nice to see them score a cold system, too.

I guess we were wrong about the mtns and foothills in CA. NWS Bay area issued a WS watch for their mts and the high hills for the upcoming system.

[MossMan]

8 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

We had 35-45mph gusts all day and night…but atleast IMBY it’s not something we don’t see atleast a few times a year. Tacoma is a pretty windy location once the southerlies start rolling compared to most places in the Seattle area. 

I don’t know for sure but by sound I would guess we hit around the 55mph mark with the westerly surge. They were not quite at powerful as the one in early November but it was enough to still knock out the power. Not many outages left so I can’t imagine it will be too long. Going on about 9hrs now. 

[LowerGarfield]

14 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

62mph and Whidbey island was max gust 

I had 67 here according to WSU. though no flickers or anything like that.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Icon…

[ShawniganLake]

26 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

62mph and Whidbey island was max gust 

Trial Island Lighthouse, just off Victoria, gusted to 76mph. 

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Icon…

 

[Prairiedog]

9 hours ago, Requiem said:

I'm gonna go for a rather gutsy 2-4 inches-- could definitely be one of our better snow events since February 2021 (not counting April 2022, where snow didn't really stick around for too long afterwards)

Is that for your elevation at almost 1K or us poor lowlanders?  2-4" for you would be a safe bet I'm thinking unless this shifts south or west of I-5

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

 

Still looks good for here

[bainbridgekid]

12z GFS is delayed on both Tidbits and Pivotal.

[MWG]

It was pretty warm the whole night. Finally tems are coming down currently 43F, rain and breezy. 

[ShawniganLake]

Arctic front is between Clinton (18F) and Cache creek (36F)

[MossMan]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

 

I’m in the grey

[MossMan]

7 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

12z GFS is delayed on both Tidbits and Pivotal.

It must be on the same grid as my house. 

[Doinko]

GEM

 

[MossMan]

Just now, Doinko said:

GEM

 

I’m in the grey as well! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, MossMan said:

I’m in the grey as well! 

This is starting to smell like a significant bust. 

[Timmy]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This is starting to smell like a significant bust. 

Andrew is high on his modeled snow supply and acting a fool. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS

[TT-SEA]

12Z GEM... WB version

[Timmy]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS

Solid.  Although I wonder if the high res models are more accurate at this point.  Should be an interesting 48 hours.  

[Doinko]

Just now, Timmy said:

Solid.  Although I wonder if the high res models are more accurate at this point.  Should be an interesting 48 hours.  

RGEM and GRAF are pretty solid and they performed well the last few times I think

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS

Give me a break.

[ShawniganLake]

Wind shift at Cache creek.  Continental air is penetrating the Fraser canyon

[BLI snowman]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS

 

GFS to its credit has probably been the most consistent model with this one so far.

[ShawniganLake]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS

A bit of a pullback there. Only 6-10” here.  Still likely way overdone. 

[Doinko]

So far the ICON shows about 5", GFS around 4", GEM around 3", RGEM around 2" for my location

[Anti Marine Layer]

To spring or not to spring? That is the question. 

[Doinko]

KPTV is forecasting Dusting to 5". I guess they'll narrow it down by this evening

[Timmy]

Canada goes nuts, this is just this weekend.

 

Edited February 21, 2023 by Timmy

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Timmy said:

Canada goes nuts, this is just this weekend.

 

WB version... pretty impressive out here.    It does show temps into low 40s on Sunday afternoon though.