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PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale


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  • Longtimer

Currently 25.9 degrees with a DP of 13. Was windy all night as the wind chimes were going! 

Looking forward to Saturday night! 

B4F89BED-C98E-4158-BC6E-F50E73EF409B.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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3 minutes ago, Timmy said:

I thought tim said Seattle got some overnight. The radar showed good echos Seattle/west

Moisture got eaten alive once it got north of tacoma. Just about 1/4” here. Airmass was extremely dry…DP is 1F at sea tac and 8F in Tacoma. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-25

Coldest min-19

Sub 40 highs-14

Sub 32 highs-2

Sub 32 lows-42

Total snowfall-7.6”

Monthly rainfall-2.38”

Wet season rainfall-20.77”

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AA06FE39-24F6-4634-AF68-EE50AF9A53FA.jpeg

I didn't see any flakes last night due to the dry air, but I did get a good vantage point to view the virga shield overhead. That last minute jog north the low made, along with a stronger than expected high in eastern WA, caused a stronger E-W pressure gradient than expected, and as a result stronger east winds and drying in the low levels.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50" 🥳

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"*

-Most recent snowfall: 1”; February 26th, 2023

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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  • Staff
13 minutes ago, Timmy said:

I thought tim said Seattle got some overnight. The radar showed good echos Seattle/west

Seattle got snow yesterday morning.    Those radar echoes were deceiving last night... north of the King/Pierce county line it was pretty much all virga.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Longtimer
40 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Looks like 6.1" from this storm total. Definitely an amazing storm, that snow overnight was extremely heavy. So much wind and a lot of drifts outside. Received 3-4" from 1 to 3 am with those bands

Nice, you beat me! About 4" here total we with some melting yesterday. Depth stands just over 3" in the grass.  Hoping to maybe equal that Saturday overnight.

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  • Longtimer

Down to 22 now. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 70.5"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 hour ago, smerfylicious said:

I didn't even get a flake in Gold Bar, but that's okay. I got 16" in November, so I can't be too greedy I guess. I'm just happy for everyone else. Maybe I'll score this weekend or something.

Just flurries here but the models have been very consistent that my best chances come later.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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Should be some very respectable min/maxes the next few days then remain pretty chilly in the longer range. Going to be a close call if we manage to stay below freezing today. Think we end up hitting 33…but we will see. Likely won’t see 40 degrees until Sunday. Getting excited for the Saturday night system. Probably going to have to pull an all-nighter for that one. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-25

Coldest min-19

Sub 40 highs-14

Sub 32 highs-2

Sub 32 lows-42

Total snowfall-7.6”

Monthly rainfall-2.38”

Wet season rainfall-20.77”

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  • Staff
1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

4.7 inches! But what's impressive is the current tenp of 23.

20230223_072330.jpg

20230223_072314.jpg

You have lots of trucks! 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Nice, you beat me! About 4" here total we with some melting yesterday. Depth stands just over 3" in the grass.  Hoping to maybe equal that Saturday overnight.

Most of our snow fell around 1-2 am when it was in the mid 20 so no melting yet. I wasn't expecting much after the initial 2" of snow but then that extremely heavy band overnight was a great surprise. Never seen snow that heavy.

 

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I'm pretty sure La Nina is dead SST wise gonna a take 4 weeks for atmospheric pattern to change up so likely gonna be very Nina like thru at least late March somewhere 20th of March on up pattern may change. 

Screenshot_20230223-073612.png

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Know thyself and you shall know the Gods!!!!

All things are possible, who you are is limited by who you think you are!!!!

☥𓂀

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  • Staff
6 minutes ago, ChrisAmunRA said:

I'm pretty sure La Nina is dead SST wise gonna a take 4 weeks for atmospheric pattern to change up so likely gonna be very Nina like thru at least late March somewhere 20th of March on up pattern may change. 

Screenshot_20230223-073612.png

Yeah... significant warming over the last week.

cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

nino34.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Longtimer
9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

You have lots of trucks! 

Some people are addicted to sports, landscaping, hiking,  bicycling, I'm addicted to vehicles. It's also advertising because I do a bunch of performance work on trucks. One of those is my womans.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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38 minutes ago, markjb said:

As usual… just a dusting here in university place… U.P. Sucks for snow !!

Yeah, it seems like we don't do as well as other areas quite often.  I live one block east of the UP/Fircrest border just south of the golf course.

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13F and cold outside.

Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2022-2023 snowfall totals: 13.9 inches

Highest snow total (per event): 2.20 inches (12/19/22 & 12/20/22)

Most recent accumulating (non Trace) .10 on 3/08/23

Days with trace or more snow: 11/1/22 (1 inch), 11/28/22 (.80), 12/01/22 (T), 12/02/22 (T), 12/4/22 (.20), 12/5/22 (1.5), 12/14/22 (1.6), 12/18/22 (T), 12/19/22 (2.10), 12/20/22 (.10), 12/23/22 (2.0), 01/03/2023 (T), 1/22/23 (T), 2/21/23 (.10), 2/22/23 (.80), 2/23/23 (.20), 2/24/2023 (.50), 2/28/23 (.90), 3/5/2023 (2.0), 3/8/2023 (.10)

First freeze: 11/3/22 (yes, after the first snowfall)

Coldest low: 0F (12/21/2022)

Last sub freezing high:  2/23/23

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location  (I've also had a White Christmas in 2017 when I lived in Stanwood and a White Christmas at a hotel in Moscow, ID in 2020). 

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12 minutes ago, ChrisAmunRA said:

I'm pretty sure La Nina is dead SST wise gonna a take 4 weeks for atmospheric pattern to change up so likely gonna be very Nina like thru at least late March somewhere 20th of March on up pattern may change. 

Screenshot_20230223-073612.png

La Nina is definitely just about done. CPC has raised odds of Nino next winter to 65%.

Ensembles definitely hinting at a strong +PNA sometime in mid March. An early spring would be great, I've never been a fan of cool springs as it delays the trees!

Screenshot_20230223-075040~2.png

Screenshot_20230223-075025~2.png

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Heading to Whistler tomorrow and the wind chill is -48 up top right now. Told my friends who are already there to stay on the lower runs today if they don’t want literal frostbite. Hopefully they take me seriously. 😅

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 85"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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I think birds coming in for spring maybe 10-15 days late on arrival vs normal this year with the weather. First few of Swallows should have showed up a few days ago around parts of Puget Sound Region but nothing yet. 

Know thyself and you shall know the Gods!!!!

All things are possible, who you are is limited by who you think you are!!!!

☥𓂀

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9 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Higher elevations of the Santa Cruz Mountains tend to get an accumulating snowfall every other year or so. Unusual, but not super-rare, either.

Its obviously Elevation dependent.  I lived 5 years around 1000' in Lompico area of Felton.  never saw a flake, but the higher mtns over 3k-3500k get snow pretty much every winter

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  • Longtimer

I still haven’t had any takers for last years celery…

Temp down to 25.5. Crazy to go from nearly 3” of rain just a few days ago, to a windstorm,  to a surprise snowstorm, to the air and ground being sooo dry and cold now! 

D14DB8E8-1AD6-4DD6-A2AD-4C8686DF827A.png

6486E75B-941F-4662-BCC2-6FE3281B6EC8.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1 minute ago, clipper_range said:

Sure hope the trends continue for regional snow Sat/Sun period. The wind stole the snow from the E. P.S.. Better consensus coming up!

It’s looking like the most solid snow set up this winter so far across the region. It’s an overrunning event unfortunately, but there will probably be some low elevation snow at times next week as well. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-25

Coldest min-19

Sub 40 highs-14

Sub 32 highs-2

Sub 32 lows-42

Total snowfall-7.6”

Monthly rainfall-2.38”

Wet season rainfall-20.77”

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3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

It’s looking like the most solid snow set up this winter so far across the region. It’s an overrunning event unfortunately, but there will probably be some low elevation snow at times next week as well. 

I agree, my optimism says: " It could be a fun storm non the less". Late winter fun is better than none.

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6 minutes ago, clipper_range said:

I agree, my optimism says: " It could be a fun storm non the less". Late winter fun is better than none.

Yeah in late February/early March any snow chance is awesome. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-25

Coldest min-19

Sub 40 highs-14

Sub 32 highs-2

Sub 32 lows-42

Total snowfall-7.6”

Monthly rainfall-2.38”

Wet season rainfall-20.77”

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7 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

One of the better snowstorms in Portland's history.

Wow! The last thing I remember is Andrew saying it was gonna bust. :lol: Remind me never take him seriously again.

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13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

A few shots from this morning. 

E9279187-8C08-4F1B-B9C7-27A6839EDC55.jpeg

49229AA7-2E41-4D67-815C-6A5022E2D128.jpeg

5C924948-83E6-4D7C-BC5C-9094B6017ABE.jpeg

82A15175-937E-47F1-8859-D7EF1B5ADDBF.jpeg

Why does doggo look upset?

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Home Weather Station Stats (starting Dec. 25 2021)

High - 90.7 (some data missing)

Lowest High - 23.6

Low - 15.6

Sub 40 highs - 13

Sub-freezing highs - 5

Lows below 25 - 6

Lows below 20 - 1

2021-2022 Snowfall - 10.9''

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On 2/21/2023 at 4:49 PM, Perturbed Member said:

Just keeping the NWS PDX forecast here so we'll be able to evaluate it tomorrow 

image.png.8f52f168364aa391b35b8de5c0077d5b.png

image.thumb.png.9d2733309f3bc8c08d3bca2309a10e9e.png

Here was the PDX NWS's forecast the night before this crazy snowstorm. Now we can evaluate how they did. 

I have what looks like about 6 inches, will get an exact measurement soon. Amazing event. 

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  • Longtimer
4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Wow! The last thing I remember is Andrew saying it was gonna bust. :lol: Remind me never take him seriously again.

You have to read his mood and adjust accordingly! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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