PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[Phil]

55 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

This is a first: There was a solid dusting on the ground when I went to bed last night. This morning, almost none of it remains. It was below freezing all night. Dry outflow wind at work. 26.1˚F.

I can’t count how many times we’ve lost inches snow due to sublimation in cold/dry air. It sucks.

42 minutes ago, ChrisAmunRA said:

I'm pretty sure La Nina is dead SST wise gonna a take 4 weeks for atmospheric pattern to change up so likely gonna be very Nina like thru at least late March somewhere 20th of March on up pattern may change. 

La Niña is dead, period. I’m leaning more towards El Niño now, big big big shake-up in the tropical circulation thanks to the SSW.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

Wow! The last thing I remember is Andrew saying it was gonna bust.  Remind me never take him seriously again.

Whatever Phil. Who told all y’all the real deal was coming. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Nice!

[SouthHillFrosty]

Or

[TT-SEA]

Sunday event per 12Z ICON and 12Z GEM.

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Whatever Phil. Who told all y’all the real deal was coming. 

Conflicting reports bro.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Or

The Sunday event is solid... but after that you can see how the GFS just compounds its low resolution issues with marginal temps.

[Timmy]

Just now, Phil said:

Conflicting reports bro.

Hey did say it was coming, then that it wasn’t, then it was, then it wasn’t, then it was, then it wasn’t, then it was…

[Phil]

I knew it must’ve been something good when I saw like 20 new/unread pages. Congrats guys.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

The Sunday event is solid... but after that you can see how the GFS just compounds its low resolution issues with marginal temps.

Lotsa snow coming up here. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Sunday event per 12Z ICON and 12Z GEM.

Even Dr. No has me getting almost 10" Sunday! Now to get the Euro on board with such amounts.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

West Salem getting hammered. Hopefully this band can drop an inch or two on McMinnville. 

[Phishy Wx]

Dang never happened at 1000' when I lived there

 

 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Even Dr. No has me getting almost 10" Sunday! Now to get the Euro on board with such amounts.

Looks pretty amazing for the northern areas and probably the Hood Canal. 

[T-Town]

Maybe half an inch here. Wind is whipping this morning and 28 degrees. 

[TacomaWx]

3 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

Why does doggo look upset?

He’s like “ugh stop posting pics of me on the forum with your weather nerd friends dad”

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

West Salem getting hammered. Hopefully this band can drop an inch or two on McMinnville. 

Wow... its still going!

McMinnville is under the strongest part of that band right now.  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

(2017 isn’t on the list because the forecast office didn’t get so much that event.)

[Phishy Wx]

 

[RCola]

Is this a different version GFS? I'm only seeing 3" Kuchera for Seattle on my maps at hour 159.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wind switch happened with this band. Amazing how quick we flipped from clear skies to snow again. 

[dhoffine]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks pretty amazing for the northern areas and probably the Hood Canal. 

How do you think we do in the EPSL and foothills Sunday?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Saw a report of 8” in Pacific City. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, dhoffine said:

How do you think we do in the EPSL and foothills Sunday?

We should get 2-3 inches with the main front.   Interestingly the models show the strongest SW wind gusts in the foothills on Sunday.    But it will be a cold SW wind with convective precip and sun breaks.     There could be occasional snow out here in the post-frontal action despite a roaring SW wind.   Unusual set up.

[Chris]

4 am this morning

[LowerGarfield]

44 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Final total in Salmon Creek. Less than 1". It's actually impressive how awful this area did relative to everyone else in the metro area. Congrats to everyone else, enjoy! I expect the sun will have most of this melted here by the afternoon.

I'm still glad you got something after being shadowed earlier. I was going to search your posts to see if you got any last night.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Lotsa snow coming up here. 

For sure, going to be a bunch of 32/33 degrees snow here next week it looks like.  Sunday looks like a solid regional event.

[Christensen87]

Would be rad to see a Winter Storm Watch posted soon for the Sunday system. 

[icyasf]

1/2” in Corvallis

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Still cant believe i had heavy snow for hrs and 23 degrees. Just so rare.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

McMinnville getting hit hard now. 

[Dave]

Yet another crappy dusting. This winter can eat a dickk. I'll see you all later this summer when the forests are on fire.

[dhoffine]

5 minutes ago, Christensen87 said:

Would be rad to see a Winter Storm Watch posted soon for the Sunday system. 

They will wait until the last moment...

[dhoffine]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

We should get 2-3 inches with the main front.   Interestingly the models show the strongest SW wind gusts in the foothills on Sunday.    But it will be a cold SW wind with convective precip and sun breaks.     There could be occasional snow out here in the post-frontal action despite a roaring SW wind.   Unusual set up.

Hey, 2-3 inches is something, but D**n, wanted more . 

[WildrootParable]

Well, that was unexpected! It's about 26 degrees out there and I think we got a solid 3 inches! It's VERY fluffy and powdery. Reminds me of being in the mountains. I guess our 500' elevation helped us out, this time around!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4 minutes ago, dhoffine said:

Hey, 2-3 inches is something, but D**n, wanted more . 

This period from sunday through next week is very much like a period i had in feb 19. There will be a ton of wet snow here next week above 500ft. Between sunday and friday i would imagine i should get 10-14 inches total.

[ChrisAmunRA]

DP 6 here in Belltown Seattle 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

On 2/19/2023 at 2:17 PM, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I'd guess you will get between 8-14 inches. My prediction,   13 inches of snowfall between Monday night and Thursday morning.

Boom!! 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Stunning morning here. Partly sunny and 25 degrees after a low of 24. East winds coming in gusts of 35-40mph and swirling snow everywhere. Haven’t gone out and measured since last night, but it looks like we ended up right around 10”, maybe a little more.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Boom!! 

This was for Andrew's area. He got 11.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, ChrisAmunRA said:

DP 6 here in Belltown Seattle 

This ridiculously dry air is what sets the stage for Saturday night.    The upper levels are not that cold with that system and it would just be cold rain for the most of the lowlands without this pre-existing air mass.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Stunning morning here. Partly sunny and 25 degrees after a low of 24. East winds coming in gusts of 35-40mph and swirling snow everywhere. Haven’t gone out and measured since last night, but it looks like we ended up right around 10”, maybe a little more.

FUKKK YES!!!

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

This ridiculously dry air is what sets the stage for Saturday night.    The upper levels are not that cold with that system and it would just be cold rain for the most of the lowlands without this pre-existing air mass.  

Dynamics!!!!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

This ridiculously dry air is what sets the stage for Saturday night.    The upper levels are not that cold with that system and it would just be cold rain for the most of the lowlands without this pre-existing air mass.  

And we are going into another chilly post shower air mass so the snow wont just melt very fast.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

21 hours ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Thinking there will be some totals in the sw washington nw oregon area in the 10-16 range when this is over.

BOOM AGAIN!!!!!

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

And we are going into another chilly post shower air mass so the snow wont just melt very fast.

Yeah... the models show low 40s on Sunday but with a dewpoint around 30.     Can't remember that much dewpoint suppression with a strong SW wind.    The ECMWF shows the SW wind could gust close to 50 mph in the foothills on Sunday afternoon and yet any precip would likely be some sort of frozen variety.  

[Cascadia_Wx]

Pretty wild to see PDX holding at 26 degrees as of 9am. If there’s a day they have a shot at their first ever sub-freezing high in the last week of February, it’s today. Widespread 8-10” on the ground, clouds at times, and raging east winds along with stout CAA.

Also pretty curious to see what happens with lows the next couple nights.

Edited February 23 by Cascadia_Wx

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

6 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Stunning morning here. Partly sunny and 25 degrees after a low of 24. East winds coming in gusts of 35-40mph and swirling snow everywhere. Haven’t gone out and measured since last night, but it looks like we ended up right around 10”, maybe a little more.

This was my favorite event of the winter so far. 

Because it was snowing in many places not just my area.

It was 23-24 degrees with wind and snow, very rare,

it wont get above freezing today at home with 5 inches on the ground. Very rare. 

[Phishy Wx]

Summit of HWY 17 in Santa Cruz Mtns around 1800'

 

 

[MillCreekMike]

This event reminds me of Feb 3rd/4th of 2019 up here. Had heavy 23 degree snow from a deformation band with a super brisk northerly wind for hours that resulted in 8 inches of beautiful powdery snow.