PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[JW8]

Anyone out there able to post a Washington snow map from the 18z Euro?? I didn't see it anywhere

[MWG]

Finally temps are going down currently 37F wind chill 32F.

I'm ready for my trace of snow!!!  

 

[MossMan]

33.4

DP 33.1

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, JW8 said:

Anyone out there able to post a Washington snow map from the 18z Euro?? I didn't see it anywhere

 

[RentonHill]

5 minutes ago, JW8 said:

Anyone out there able to post a Washington snow map from the 18z Euro?? I didn't see it anywhere

 

[Dave]

7 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The 100ft won't change anything.  If so then the tip of the tallest tree in your neighborhood will be covered with snow. 

I've got plenty of 100' trees in my neighborhood, including a huge Doug fir in my yard. I suppose I'll be tree climbing to get the goods.

[JW8]

1 minute ago, RentonHill said:

 

[Dave]

Splat test positive. A good sign. 38 degrees. 

[Cloud]

43 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Its currently 43 at BLI and snowing at PAE.    Interesting.

So you mean it doesn’t need to be freezing for it to snow? now that’s interesting given the narrative of the GFS. 
 

Now actually sticking is another matter.

[smerfylicious]

Positive splits at everett target to.

 

[Cloud]

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Snowing hard right now on US30 at Bradley Wayside. Temp at 32.9F.

[Requiem]

7 minutes ago, Cloud said:

 

Lol absolutely absurd that even NWS Seattle is highlighting the potential for some higher than expected accumulations out of the bullseye while PDX is

[HuskyMaestro]

9 minutes ago, Cloud said:

 

I feel like Port Angeles has been scoring a good anount of snow events lately when that’s one of the last places I’d move for snow. Maybe I’m wrong tho.

[BLI snowman]

33 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Nice 4" here on the HRRR. Happy we're finally seeing an event where I'm not on the edge like 2/2021 or in the middle of the coast range rain shadow like 12/2021

You should be in a good spot for sure. Been a long time since the SW metro area was really favored.

[BLI snowman]

5 minutes ago, HuskyMaestro said:

I feel like Port Angeles has been scoring a good anount of snow events lately when that’s one of the last places I’d move for snow. Maybe I’m wrong tho.

Been lots of Fraser River dominant arctic outflow events since 2018. They do very well with those as the NE winds pile moisture up against the Olympics.

[Cold Snap]

16 minutes ago, Cloud said:

 

I’m surprised the yellow circle isn’t farther south closer to what the Euro/WRF-GFS are showing.

[BLI snowman]

00z NAM still south but jumped north a fair amount from the 18z.

[Perturbed Member]

52 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Honestly feels pretty good to me and I'm on board for a widespread 3-6" around the whole metro area with some 6-8" spots likely to the south and far west. Still believe the models may be overdoing the speed at which the column mixes out tomorrow evening as the low begins to deepen. I think there is potential for a lot more explosive lift and a juicy dendritic growth layer there, with a strongish (997mb) low spinning in the sweet spot and moderately but not crazy deep offshore flow advecting into it.

 

Should be fun to watch the NWS scramble to fix their forecast and add advisories/warnings. They currently still think its a total nonevent north of SLE and a trace-1 inch south of there unless you have elevation. I really can't understand their logic.

[snow_wizard]

Just saw they have a snow squall warning in effect for Spokane.  Sounds pretty cool!

[bainbridgekid]

8 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

I’m surprised the yellow circle isn’t farther south closer to what the Euro/WRF-GFS are showing.

They honestly probably drew it in the North Sound since that’s the usual spot that’s favored rather that further South where models are favoring right now. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Just now, bainbridgekid said:

They honestly probably drew it in the North Sound since that’s the usual spot that’s favored rather that further South where models are favoring right now. 

NAM removes any snow from the South Sound 

[snow_wizard]

You can just tell there are going to be surprises in the Central Puget Sound over the next 12 to 18 hours.  A lot of moisture in play right now, and a sliding C-Zone in the cards.

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

NAM removes any snow from the South Sound 

It’s radar time. 

[Snownerd3000]

19 minutes ago, HuskyMaestro said:

I feel like Port Angeles has been scoring a good anount of snow events lately when that’s one of the last places I’d move for snow. Maybe I’m wrong tho.

They always get snow from Fraser outflows.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

NAM removes any snow from the South Sound 

It's picking up the King County thing the ECMWF has been seeing.  Puts me on the edge of it at least.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Hail in East Van this evening.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

They honestly probably drew it in the North Sound since that’s the usual spot that’s favored rather that further South where models are favoring right now. 

I suppose, but a displaced C-Zone south of the normal location seems pretty possible given the situation.

[BLI snowman]

1 minute ago, Perturbed Member said:

Should be fun to watch the NWS scramble to fix their forecast and add advisories/warnings. They currently still think its a total nonevent north of SLE and a trace-1 inch south of there unless you have elevation. I really can't understand their logic.

Store was refreshingly calm tonight when I went. Kinda nice to not have the big pre-event hype.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

It’s radar time. 

There will be surprises I'm thinking.

[snow_wizard]

Some notable bullseyes over King County on the NAM.  Same as the 18z ECMWF more or less.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

There will be surprises I'm thinking.

Pretty much always is. Hopefully in a good way. Get the feeling moisture might end up being a little underdone compared to the models over the next 48 hours. 

[snow_wizard]

12 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Should be fun to watch the NWS scramble to fix their forecast and add advisories/warnings. They currently still think its a total nonevent north of SLE and a trace-1 inch south of there unless you have elevation. I really can't understand their logic.

I can't imagine them being overly confident given the situation.  You would think they would cover their bases at least.

[MossMan]

32.5 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

38.8°F and mixed precip. Temperature is starting to tumble. Getting some reports of wet snow not far to my east.

[Doinko]

25 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

You should be in a good spot for sure. Been a long time since the SW metro area was really favored.

Would being more on the NW side hurt my chances a bit?

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It's picking up the King County thing the ECMWF has been seeing.  Puts me on the edge of it at least.

Unfortunately that is the band that is happening right now.    There is nothing more after that on this run and its already lifting north.

[TacomaWx]

3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

38.8°F and mixed precip. Temperature is starting to tumble. Getting some reports of wet snow not far to my east.

Outflow starting in Bellingham. 39 DP 26. 

[Deweydog]

19 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Should be fun to watch the NWS scramble to fix their forecast and add advisories/warnings. They currently still think its a total nonevent north of SLE and a trace-1 inch south of there unless you have elevation. I really can't understand their logic.

It’s without a doubt the best thing the metro area has going for it right now.

[Requiem]

3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Would being more on the NW side hurt my chances a bit?

You'll do fine methinks. You're in the Bethany area, right? I think you'll see at least a couple inches of snow.