PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[SpaceRace22]

7 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

We’re like eight miles from there. That’s an insane difference.

That temp of 34 is 100% wrong though.

Really? You sure about that? The lack of snow is allowing it to warm up more than surrounding areas. Multiple other weather stations in the area confirm this.

 

[BLI snowman]

9 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

We’re like eight miles from there. That’s an insane difference.

That temp of 34 is 100% wrong though.

Yeah, I've got 30 here right now and I'm further from the gorge. Salmon Creek is probably 30-31.

[Deweydog]

14 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Went out to lunch and to do some shopping since the roads are clear now. The snow has pretty much all melted and it's 34 degrees here in NW Vancouver.

I'm super stoked for everyone else in the NW right now but I'd be lying if I said this one doesn't sting pretty bad.

That’s pretty crazy. Salmon Creek/Felida is usually money for being a Clark County hotspot for accumulations.

[Blizzard777]

Fun landing in Seattle with the east winds!  Just as we were about to touch down the wind grabbed the plane tilting the right wing toward the ground! Needless to say he aborted the landing.  Secondary attempt was rough as well but he put it down with passengers clapping  ! Picture of us cutting over Seattle to do short final rather than the long final around the space needle.  

[SpaceRace22]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

That’s pretty crazy. Salmon Creek/Felida is usually money for being a Clark County hotspot for accumulations.

Yeah. To be fair, I was in town for the April snowstorm as well, and I'm pretty sure we did better than literally anyone else that day. Ended up with like 9" here or something stupid like that.

[Slushy Inch]

Weird that a weak ish front brings such cold air aloft.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

12z GRAF IBM has PDX barely getting above freezing tomorrow afternoon but temps drop back down to the teens early Saturday morning.

[WhoNeedsAC]

54 minutes ago, Doinko said:

At least Mark Nelsen acknowledged that there was real potential for a snowstorm. He even mentioned we could get a January 2017 surprise and clearly communicated that everyone should leave and get home early. The NWS just put out some random percentages in their AFDs

That is true. Mark didn't bite for the longest time, but when he finally - sort of - came around he was one of the few local mets that warned everyone to go home early.

[SpaceRace22]

3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Yeah, I've got 30 here right now and I'm further from the gorge. Salmon Creek is probably 30-31.

The areas without snowcover are warming up a lot faster today, kind of understandably. It's not really about the Gorge influence I think.

[SpaceRace22]

4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I can’t understand why anyone who flew up here on a whim specifically to see snow would spend all day in the least snowy part of town when there are widespread 8-10” totals just several miles away.

Maybe because I didn't fly up here specifically to see snow, lol. I maybe chose to time my trip for right now because of the snow, but I had to come up here within the next couple weeks anyway for totally unrelated reasons. I apologize for not sharing the finer details of my personal life on a public forum.

You realize I just came from California where the mountains less than an hour away are currently getting 7-10 feet of snow, right? If I wanted to travel 100% for snow there was a much better option available to me.

[Blizzard777]

Fun rolling clouds somewhere over Texas and the second picture shows where the snow started.  Right side was nothing and the left looked to be a dusting but it continued to thicken all the way in the NW.  Just funny how theirs and actual line.  Winners and losers of snow 

[LowerGarfield]

I know Moss had snow but did any places in Thurston or Pierce co get some good snow. I'm having a debate with a coworker who says it's quiet because of school district closures.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Maybe because I didn't fly up here specifically to see snow, lol. I maybe chose to time my trip for right now because of the snow, but I had to come up here within the next couple weeks anyway for totally unrelated reasons. I apologize for not sharing the finer details of my personal life on a public forum, lol.

You realize I just came from California where the mountains less than an hour away are currently getting 7-10 feet of snow, right? If I wanted to travel 100% for snow there was a much better option available to me.

Maybe I misread your posts yesterday or even missed some, I definitely wasn’t on all day. I was under the impressive you flew up here due to the imminent snowstorm. Makes sense that there were other reasons too.

[BLI snowman]

7 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

That’s pretty crazy. Salmon Creek/Felida is usually money for being a Clark County hotspot for accumulations.

There was a pretty prominent hole from Hazel Dell to Ridgefield once we got cold enough for accumulations in the late afternoon. Hours of really light stuff with a lot more precip on both sides of it. Sounds like Scappoose was reporting 6" and Battle Ground down to Orchards also had 5-6".

[TigerWoodsLibido]

3 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Maybe because I didn't fly up here specifically to see snow, lol. I maybe chose to time my trip for right now because of the snow, but I had to come up here within the next couple weeks anyway for totally unrelated reasons. I apologize for not sharing the finer details of my personal life on a public forum.

You realize I just came from California where the mountains less than an hour away are currently getting 7-10 feet of snow, right? If I wanted to travel 100% for snow there was a much better option available to me.

Welcome to the forum.

[PuyallupChris]

46 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

So EPS is snowier now? wtf?

What on earth?? I know this is clown range, but... what are the odds this far out?  I got maybe 1/4" last night but after a few relative busts in the swamp I'd love a solid few inches on winter's way out. But getting snow in early/mid march requires just about everything to go perfectly, and I feel like we've seen constant "snow 2 weeks from now" models this winter. 

[PuyallupChris]

4 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

I know Moss had snow but did any places in Thurston or Pierce co get some good snow. I'm having a debate with a coworker who says it's quiet because of school district closures.

Puyallup schools were 2 hours late. They announced it an hour after snow had already stopped last night. I assume they were worried about ice, because we got a dusting that barely stuck to roads at all.

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, PuyallupChris said:

What on earth?? I know this is clown range, but... what are the odds this far out?  I got maybe 1/4" last night but after a few relative busts in the swamp I'd love a solid few inches on winter's way out. But getting snow in early/mid march requires just about everything to go perfectly, and I feel like we've seen constant "snow 2 weeks from now" models this winter. 

This is very different than snow forecasted two weeks from now.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Pretty insane to see PDX holding at 28 with full sunshine at 1pm on February 23. 

[SpaceRace22]

8 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I can’t understand why anyone who flew up here on a whim specifically to see snow would spend all day in the least snowy part of town when there are widespread 8-10” totals just several miles away.

You know what? **, actually. I flew up here because my mother is dying and she needs my help around the house right now. I am not going to leave my mom at home while I go drive to the other side of town to sit in a snowy Fred Meyer parking lot, what the ****.

I wanted to see some decent snow here because it would be a small silver lining during what is otherwise a very painful and difficult time for me and my family. My mom really likes snow too and I was hoping that this storm would be something that I could look back on fondly as one of the last happy memories I had with my mother. I am so very sorry that my disappointment is upsetting to you.

[OysterPrintout]

absolutely no chance for those small cells to the south, completely torn apart as they enter the metro

[TigerWoodsLibido]

43F so we should see a pretty solid negative temp departure given the normal high is 53F.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

You know what? **, actually. I flew up here because my mother is dying and she needs my help around the house right now. I am not going to leave my mom at home while I go drive to the other side of town to sit in a snowy Fred Meyer parking lot, what the ****.

I wanted to see some decent snow here because it would be a small silver lining during what is otherwise a very painful and difficult time for me and my family. My mom really likes snow too and I was hoping that this storm would be something that I could look back on fondly as one of the last happy memories I had with my mother. I am so very sorry that my disappointment is upsetting to you.

My condolences. I dealt with the death of my own mother last summer.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

2 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

You know what? **, actually. I flew up here because my mother is dying and she needs my help around the house right now. I am not going to leave my mom at home while I go drive to the other side of town to sit in a snowy Fred Meyer parking lot, what the ****.

I wanted to see some decent snow here because it would be a small silver lining during what is otherwise a very painful and difficult time for me and my family. My mom really likes snow too and I was hoping that this storm would be something that I could look back on fondly as one of the last happy memories I had with my mother. I am so very sorry that my disappointment is upsetting to you.

Seriously, lay into him. I'm not kidding. He's kicking a bunch of people in the south valley while they're down too. I don't get it.

[JW8]

5 minutes ago, PuyallupChris said:

Puyallup schools were 2 hours late. They announced it an hour after snow had already stopped last night. I assume they were worried about ice, because we got a dusting that barely stuck to roads at all.

I thought schools were closed for "President's Week"? Which is why traffic has been so much better the last few days.

[Deweydog]

7 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

There was a pretty prominent hole from Hazel Dell to Ridgefield once we got cold enough for accumulations in the late afternoon. Hours of really light stuff with a lot more precip on both sides of it. Sounds like Scappoose was reporting 6" and Battle Ground down to Orchards also had 5-6".

Yeah, we did really well with the morning stuff, then caught the first part of the afternoon stuff but dynamics focused south after sunset. We got maybe an inch after that.

[umadbro]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Seriously, lay into him. I'm not kidding. He's kicking a bunch of people in the south valley while they're down too. I don't get it.

Par for the course for him. 

[Requiem]

3 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

absolutely no chance for those small cells to the south, completely torn apart as they enter the metro

Some fairly robust easterlies out there, didn't notice in all the excitement over the storm. PDX was reading S33G45 a bit ago.

[SpaceRace22]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Same thought crossed my mind. Don’t even want to bother going down that rabbit hole though. It’s a beautiful day. 

What an absolutely bizarre thing to doubt, but okay you do you. Congrats on your snow. Maybe you can rub it in more next to some of the Eugene posters after you drive me out of here.

[Margaritaville]

14 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

I know Moss had snow but did any places in Thurston or Pierce co get some good snow. I'm having a debate with a coworker who says it's quiet because of school district closures.

Olympia School District is closed today. Not sure about any others in Thurston.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

5 minutes ago, umadbro said:

Par for the course for him. 

And Fred and co still put up with it. Now he insults people mourning loved ones. I don't get it.

[Hawksfan2008]

36 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

Crazy to see a buoy reporting 36 way out there in the Pacific. This is how we get SW winds over the weekend with limited warming potential. 

Wow great call 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, SpaceRace22 said:

What an absolutely bizarre thing to doubt, but okay you do you. Congrats on your snow. Maybe you can rub it in more next to some of the Eugene posters after you drive me out of here.

I would like nothing more to see Eugene get a big event. And my condolences about your mother. You have to understand from the posts yesterday it seemed like you based your decision to come up here mostly on the snowstorm. I didn’t have any other details of your trip, so you can understand why I would be confused that you didn’t travel to a snowier part of town. Now that I have the details it makes sense. Apologies if I upset you. Hope the rest of your trip goes well.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Still holding 32 at bremerton  and shelton, 30 at home.

[MillCreekMike]

Ahh the toxic side of this place is showing

[joelgombiner]

Convective cell developing on p. 211. Take cover. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Dewey needs to post puppy photos asap 

[LowerGarfield]

6 minutes ago, Margaritaville said:

Olympia School District is closed today. Not sure about any others in Thurston.

Ty and Chris! My work centers around those two counties and Spokane so that's really helpful.

[Mr Marine Layer]

Almost up to 212 pages. This topic is boiling.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, MillCreekMike said:

Ahh the toxic side of this place is showing

Cruelty is a difficult trait for some to overcome.

[RCola]

1 hour ago, joelgombiner said:

The "National Blend of Models" strikes me as a useful, but flawed, tool. Blending together models with different skill levels, and models that are optimized for different purposes is not a great way IMO to generate forecast probabilities. 

 

I've been thinking about this a lot lately. One way that could be better is if the weighting of the models changed as a function of how far out the forecast was. Perhaps the mesoscale models are great for what happens over the next few hours, while the global models are not weighted as strongly. For one to four days out, the global models are weighted above ensemble and mesoscale models. After five days, the ensembles should probably get the most weight. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

In other news it is snowing moderately again here in Salem. 

[LowerGarfield]

18 minutes ago, PuyallupChris said:

Puyallup schools were 2 hours late. They announced it an hour after snow had already stopped last night. I assume they were worried about ice, because we got a dusting that barely stuck to roads at all.

Much appreciated. How much did you get? Icy roads in your area this am?

[Gradient Keeper]

This sums up how it is out here. It's a ground blizzard with East wind gusts 40-50mph with 11 1/2" on the ground! AMAZING! I do hate that the wind blew most of the snow off the trees though. 12z Euro/EPS keeps the threat of lowland snow very real several times over the next 10 days! WOW! Moses Lake 19 F at 1 PM under clear skies and bright sunshine. That's incredible for late Jebruary. It's a Jebruary to remember!

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Still should post a solid negative temp departure. A lot nicer than racking up the NFL players in the summer.

[DRG]

Woke up to about 5" in Gasquet this morning.  Warmed up down here a fair amount this morning, lots of melting.  Then winds kicked up and now it's trying to stick again (vid).

House in PDX had 10"+ this morning according to neighbors (pic).

[SpaceRace22]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

This sums up how it is out here. It's a ground blizzard with East wind gusts 40-50mph with 11 1/2 on the ground! AMAZING! Click on [720] for HD quality. I do hate that the wind blew most of the snow off the trees though. 12z Euro/EPS keeps the threat of lowland snow very real several times over the next 10 days! WOW! Moses Lake 19 F at 1 PM under clear skies and bright sunshine. That's incredible for late Jebruary. It's a Jebruary to remember!

MVI_3376.MOV 29.7 MB · 2 downloads  

 

 

[joelgombiner]

4 minutes ago, RCola said:

I've been thinking about this a lot lately. One way that could be better is if the weighting of the models changed as a function of how far out the forecast was. Perhaps the mesoscale models are great for what happens over the next few hours, while the global models are not weighted as strongly. For one to four days out, the global models are weighted above ensemble and mesoscale models. After five days, the ensembles should probably get the most weight. 

It may already work that way to some degree. They state that  it's "bias-corrected" but I don't see an explanation of how that works or what it means. 

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Dewey needs to post puppy photos asap 

Here is one of dogs refusing to come back in this morning! 

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, DRG said:

Woke up to about 5" in Gasquet this morning.  Warmed up down here a fair amount this morning, lots of melting.  Then winds kicked up and now it's trying to stick again (vid).

House in PDX had 10"+ this morning according to neighbors (pic).

It's a Winter wonderland. What river/creek is that? Looks like an amazing place to live. I'd be busy fishing.