PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Not to be a big giant wet blanket, but a massive percentage of those 1 foot+ totals is probably phantom snow. It's all falling during the late morning/early afternoon tomorrow while it's 35 degrees.

RGEM actually doesn't look like much phantom snow. All of this falls after 4pm Wednesday.

 

[FroYoBro]

3 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Not to be a big giant wet blanket, but a massive percentage of those 1 foot+ totals is probably phantom snow. It's all falling during the late morning/early afternoon tomorrow while it's 35 degrees.

HEY! This guy is trying to steal our snow?!?!?!!!!!!

 

 

[MossMan]

Down to 31.9. My deck is glazed ice! 

[Doinko]

GFS still looks good. Temps are in the low 20s (probably mid to upper 20s in reality) with heavy snow in west PDX

 

[BLI snowman]

5 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Maybe we'll get our 1/10/17 repeat with the NWS forecasting barely anything

Some of the similarities are hard to ignore. 

[Requiem]

7 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Not to be a big giant wet blanket, but a massive percentage of those 1 foot+ totals is probably phantom snow. It's all falling during the late morning/early afternoon tomorrow while it's 35 degrees.

Not particularly-- most heavier precip swings through (on the Pepto models) while healthy offshore flow and ample temps are in place over the metro area and much of W. Oregon. The bulk on the RGEM, for example, falls after the 4 o clock hour. 

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Some of the similarities are hard to ignore. 

If we get over 4.5" this will be our biggest singular event since then when we had 13".

[Perturbed Member]

2 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Not to be a big giant wet blanket, but a massive percentage of those 1 foot+ totals is probably phantom snow. It's all falling during the late morning/early afternoon tomorrow while it's 35 degrees.

Yep, RGEM and ICON both are counting tomorrow's phantom snow but even after subtracting that, they show significant snow. 

The more recent model runs are showing precip that is more convective in nature and that will always leave open the possibility for totals that are much higher than modeled like the 1/10/17 event here. I don't know where the bullseye will be but someone is likely to really get nailed tomorrow IMO.

[MossMan]

Brrrr. Action foot shot!
DP 31.6 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Seems to be winding down now. Oh well, fun while it lasted.

[joelgombiner]

A tenth of an inch! I'll take it. 

 

[KingstonWX]

34.5 degrees here and absolutely dumping snow. Big wet sloppy fat flakes. 

[Deweydog]

15 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Peaking at the right time. 

Would love that bullseye right over PDX with 3-6 inches while the NWS is still talking about their Bayesian probability model showing a 43% chance of 0.5 inches of snow above 321 ft elevation. 

I read this and IMMEDIATELY checked my elevation online.

Can’t really ignore the westside enhancement potential at this point. It’d be hard to avoid getting 2-3 inches with locally more. Really wants wring things out on the periphery of the gorge frontogenesis which peaks early Thursday morning.

Edited February 22, 2023 by Deweydog

[VancouverIslandSouth]

It's dumping snow up around Nanaimo and other places on the east side of the island now:

[MossMan]

I would give anything for a 2” hit of the white stuff to go on top of my quarter inch of hail! 

[SpaceRace22]

How has no one posted the GFS yet?

[Doinko]

GEM looks great

 

[FroYoBro]

Where is Andrew?

[Slushy Inch]

37 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

You can see that outflow come through

Lightning!

[Perturbed Member]

Yeah GEM goes all in for PDX.

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

GEM looks great

 

For PDX

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The satellite's looking interesting, lots of instability just offshore with streamers originating off the North BC coast:

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Perturbed Member said:

Yeah GEM goes all in for PDX.

9"+ for the entire metro

[Perturbed Member]

Someone post the weatherbell map for GEM

[Slushy Inch]

The one model that is still good for me… Looking slim. 

[MikeInEverett]

Awesome last minute trends for PDX!

[Cold Snap]

This is honestly starting to look like the real deal for Oregon folks.

[BLI snowman]

With that synching of modest cyclogenesis and cold air advection, this could be a really dynamic snowstorm, more like a Midwest/Northeast event....

[Weiner Warrior]

On to Sunday... looks amazing!!

[Slushy Inch]

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

This is honestly starting to look like the real deal for Oregon folks.

Major bust for the NWS.

[BLI snowman]

2 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

This is honestly starting to look like the real deal for Oregon folks.

Looking like most all of SW WA gets in on it as well now.

[OysterPrintout]

Every run is improving down here. A terrifying prospect! The Portland Special®™ of a dusting is on life support.

[SpaceRace22]

6 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Someone post the weatherbell map for GEM

Wow

[Slushy Inch]

4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Major bust for the NWS.

NWS for Seattle and PDX are so pessimistic about snow. Snow busts are common. They need to hedge their bets.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

6 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Someone post the weatherbell map for GEM

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

NWS and PDX are so pessimistic about snow. Snow busts are common. They need to hedge their bets.

There’s such good model consensus for a Portland snowstorm now. Really foolish to ignore it.

[Deweydog]

This sh*t’s only got brief window to trend north to MossMan’s abode. Still likely.

[Christensen87]

Looking better for PDX peeps for sure. The weekend is trending better for everyone too! So far, great 00z run. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

5 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Major bust for the NWS.

For the wind forecast in Southern California too