PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[Doinko]

Midnight high of 31 at PDX with full sunshine throughout the day is crazy. Last time there was a subfreezing high this late was the 29 degree high in March 1960 which involved precip during the day

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

Also easy to forget overrunning events are almost always underdone. I’d be surprised if we got less than 1.5-2” 

widespread 2-5 inches easy. 4-8 around the canal and another 4-8 around the canal sunday night through wednesday.

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Also easy to forget overrunning events are almost always underdone. I’d be surprised if we got less than 1.5-2” 

This is such a strange overrunning situation.   Normally there is cold air in place and the system is coming in from the southwest with an east wind ahead of the system and an air mass battle ensues.    With this situation... there is basically no cold air left on Saturday afternoon.   The only thing that makes this event happen is the dry air in place.   There won't be an extended air mass battle this time.   The wind is roaring from the south by 4 a.m. on Sunday immediately after the front passes.    But its polar maritime air mass so it won't warm up significantly either.    Strange deal.

[Front Ranger]

5 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Areas that will struggle with snow sunday will be places right near the sound and less than 200ft elevation.

Timing of precip arrival should help at least.

[snow_wizard]

Managed to pull off a high of 32 here today for the latest freezing max temp I've ever recorded here.  To do that without snow cover is really quite something this late in the season.  No doubt the east wind helped out considerably.

[TacomaWx]

This winters a B+ for me so far. Might get to A- status depending on how the sunday system and the potential snows later next week works out. 
 2 sub freezing highs, 13 sub 40 highs so far with 2 significant arctic outbreaks. Rare ice storm.  Haven’t managed a big snow event so far this winter and it likely isn’t in the cards…but I can’t complain. A lot of small events which were all fun. Can’t remember a year with such a number of light snowfalls with more likely coming up. 
 11/29 0.7”

11/30 1.2”

12/1   0.8”

12/2  1.2”

12/3 0.2”

12/4 1.1”

12/20 0.3”

12/21 0.5”

1/28 TR.

1/31 TR.

2/13 0.2”

2/22 TR.

2/23 0.2”

 

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

This is such a strange overrunning situation.   Normally there is cold air in place and the system is coming in from the southwest with an east wind ahead of the system and an air mass battle ensues.    With this situation... there is basically no cold air left on Saturday afternoon.   The only thing that makes this event happen is the dry air in place.   There won't be an extended air mass battle this time.   The wind is roaring from the south by 4 a.m. on Sunday immediately after the front passes.    But its polar maritime air mass so it won't warm up significantly either.    Strange deal.

This is a weird one.  Models have been very consistent on widespread snowfall, but have waffled a bit on some details.  Interestingly the GFS improved with snow amounts on every run today while the ECMWF improved 6z over 0z, but then dropped some on the 12z and 18z.

Another weird thing is after the south wind it freezes again Sunday night.

[Front Ranger]

8 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

36/27 temp spread today…suns not down yet and it’s already 33. Going to get very cold tonight even without snowcover. 

Looks like this thing could actually rival 2011 in spots. Beastly.

And it's not localized at all, either. I posted it in the mountain west thread, but DEN put up a 7/-11 today, which is historic for this late in the season - only one event, Feb 1962, has been colder later.

Late Feb 2011, on the other hand, was basically a non event here.

[MossMan]

35/25 on the day, currently 31. DP of 18. My current snow situation. 

[Cold Snap]

8 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

widespread 2-5 inches easy. 4-8 around the canal and another 4-8 around the canal sunday night through wednesday.

How do you think I will do next week after the Sunday storm at 408’ elevation?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The Sunday system is a pretty straightforward snow maker up here. Not usually something that produces snow below 500-1000’, I would be surprised if Salem had accumulating snow, but who knows the worm has turned. 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

This winters a B+ for me so far. Might get to A- status depending on how the sunday system and the potential snows later next week works out. 
 2 sub freezing highs, 13 sub 40 highs so far with 2 significant arctic outbreaks. Rare ice storm.  Haven’t managed a big snow event so far this winter and it likely isn’t in the cards…but I can’t complain. A lot of small events which were all fun. Can’t remember a year with such a number of light snowfalls with more likely coming up. 
 11/29 0.7”

11/30 1.2”

12/1   0.8”

12/2  1.2”

12/3 0.2”

12/4 1.1”

12/20 0.3”

12/21 0.5”

1/28 TR.

1/31 TR.

2/13 0.2”

2/22 TR.

2/23 0.2”

 

I think A and A- are out of reach.  Just comparing to what an A or A- winter would be historically speaking.  I think B+ is still doable though.

BTW...a lot of snow chances are coming and one of them could be a big one.  The EPS and GEFS are just ridiculous with 850s sustained in the -5 to -8 bracket for the next two weeks.

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Looks like this thing could actually rival 2011 in spots. Beastly.

And it's not localized at all, either. I posted it in the mountain west thread, but DEN put up a 7/-11 today, which is historic for this late in the season - only one event, Feb 1962, has been colder later.

Late Feb 2011, on the other hand, was basically a non event here.

Atleast IMBY and most of western WA this ain’t close to 2011. We had a 30/25 day on 2/25/11…coldest day will likely be 36/27 today on this one. Really impressive numbers in SW BC and down in southern WA/OR. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

 

[Doinko]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Managed to pull off a high of 32 here today for the latest freezing max temp I've ever recorded here.  To do that without snow cover is really quite something this late in the season.  No doubt the east wind helped out considerably.

Afternoon high of 28 at Hillsboro today.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Looks like this thing could actually rival 2011 in spots. Beastly.

And it's not localized at all, either. I posted it in the mountain west thread, but DEN put up a 7/-11 today, which is historic for this late in the season - only one event, Feb 1962, has been colder later.

Late Feb 2011, on the other hand, was basically a non event here.

I wasn't able to pull off a freezing max in 2011 even with snow on the ground.  This airmass is actually colder...at least at the low levels.

[Doinko]

Looks like a high of 30 here for the day

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Atleast IMBY and most of western WA this ain’t close to 2011. We had a 30/25 day on 2/25/11…coldest day will likely be 36/27 today on this one. Really impressive numbers in SW BC and down in southern WA/OR. 

I did 32/24 today.  I think 2011 had more of a northerly component which favors your area for colder max temps.  This one is a bit more of an easterly component which favors my area for cold max temps.  That one also had snow cover to help with the temps.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

8 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

How do you think I will do next week after the Sunday storm at 408’ elevation?

A couple chances for 1-2 inches for sure it looks like.

[snow_wizard]

The 12z ECMWF and 12z EPS were both showing another pretty legit cold airmass around day 10 with 850s falling to -8 or so.  We are in a groove!

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

A couple chances for 1-2 inches for sure it looks like.

I agree.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The Sunday system is a pretty straightforward snow maker up here. Not usually something that produces snow below 500-1000’, I would be surprised if Salem had accumulating snow, but who knows the worm has turned. 

The worm is on a acid trip and getting crazy!

[snow_wizard]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The Sunday system is a pretty straightforward snow maker up here. Not usually something that produces snow below 500-1000’, I would be surprised if Salem had accumulating snow, but who knows the worm has turned. 

We have a pretty exceptional cold air mass in place though.  At least up here the dp's are exceptionally low as well.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I did 32/24 today.  I think 2011 had more of a northerly component which favors your area for colder max temps.  This one is a bit more of an easterly component which favors my area for cold max temps.  That one also had snow cover to help with the temps.

I did a 30/23. The heavy snow and 23 degrees was a treat, ended up with 4.7 inches of top grade powder.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

New ECMWF weeklies... maybe a return to something a little closer to normal eventually?    Maybe the cold is not just entirely focused in the west?

Another year where winter peaks at the spring equinox here? Knock me over with a feather.

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

The 12z ECMWF and 12z EPS were both showing another pretty legit cold airmass around day 10 with 850s falling to -8 or so.  We are in a groove!

Hopefully this will end up being one of the best late season weather for the ages. Probably already so for PDX with that insane stuff yesterday and more is on the way!

[snow_wizard]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I did a 30/23. The heavy snow and 23 degrees was a treat, ended up with 4.7 inches of top grade powder.

That upsloping along the east slopes of the Olympics worked wonders last night.  Sounds almost continental.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

5 below at sherman pass! 1 above at my cabin.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

That upsloping along the east slopes of the Olympics worked wonders last night.  Sounds almost continental.

Yep, just 10 miles east at work only 1.5 inches. 

[snow_wizard]

I am very thrilled there is no drippy gloom anywhere in sight right now.  Great pattern!

[Cloud]

Fwiw, the OR snowstorm yesterday was worthy of a named winter storm (do they still do those?) but I’m seeing very little national media coverage. If this was in the NE, they’d be all over it. Sadge 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I am very thrilled there is no drippy gloom anywhere in sight right now.  Great pattern!

Probably just sets us up for that to be the main theme from April - June.  

[Front Ranger]

12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I wasn't able to pull off a freezing max in 2011 even with snow on the ground.  This airmass is actually colder...at least at the low levels.

Depends on where you're talking. SEA had a 31/20 and OLM had a ridiculous 31/5 and 30/8 in 2011. I believe both spots had decent snow cover, though.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Fwiw, the OR snowstorm yesterday was worthy of a named winter storm (do they still do those?) but I’m seeing very little national media coverage. If this was in the NE, they’d be all over it. Sadge 

Yup.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Hey, anybody got any snow maps I can send the lead nws for PDX? I deleted all of mine already.

 

[MossMan]

I will say part of my A- grade has to do with the epic west wind event at the beginning of November along with a few other good blows that month, and again this weeks wind event up here! 

[Phil]

50 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Question for Phil. Is the polar vortex causing this?

Well, the lack of a polar vortex (thanks to the SSW) has helped to free some of the arctic air from the pole, and is indirectly responsible for the pattern producing the snow (by activating the MJO via MC acceleration).

So, technically yes, it is responsible.

[snow_wizard]

Already back down to 29 here.  This wind is Kold!

[MossMan]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Already back down to 29 here.  This wind is Kold!

That east wind today was bone chilling! 

[Ziess]

Stupid question here but how thick is this cold air currently? 

[Front Ranger]

17 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Atleast IMBY and most of western WA this ain’t close to 2011. We had a 30/25 day on 2/25/11…coldest day will likely be 36/27 today on this one. Really impressive numbers in SW BC and down in southern WA/OR. 

You don't think you'll get below 27 by midnight?

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

I will say part of my A- grade has to do with the epic west wind event at the beginning of November along with a few other good blows that month, and again this weeks wind event up here! 

Good point.  There is more that goes into grading a winter than just cold and snow.  In my mind though an A- winter is one like 1928-29, 1936-37, or 1955-56.  An A would be 1949-50 or 1968-69.

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Ziess said:

Stupid question here but how thick is this cold air currently? 

Not a stupid question, however I don’t know so here is my contribution. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

I will say part of my A- grade has to do with the epic west wind event at the beginning of November along with a few other good blows that month, and again this weeks wind event up here! 

Grading winters is like debating what kind of pizza or ice cream you like.  There is no right or wrong answer.   

[joelgombiner]

4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Hey, anybody got any snow maps I can send the lead nws for PDX? I deleted all of mine already.

 

Here's something I found in a minute just looking through the forum

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Ziess said:

Stupid question here but how thick is this cold air currently? 

Very.  I noticed some places in the Willapa Hills that are quite cold at only 2000 feet, and it just gets colder from there.

[Phil]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Probably just sets us up for that to be the main theme from April - June.  

Transition to +ENSO statistically favors a warm summer in the PNW. However the Hadley Cell low pass state is drastically improved compared to the last 3 years, so the 4CH likely won’t be a steroidal monster this year.

Could be a 1997 or 2019 type pattern for J/J/A.

[Cloud]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Grading winters is like debating what kind of pizza or ice cream you like.  There is no right or wrong answer.   

Is it okay to grade summers?  

I love ice cream in the summer time! 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Cloud said:

Is it okay to grade summers?  

I love ice cream in the summer time! 

Grading summers is just as pointless.  

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Transition to +ENSO favors a warm summer in the PNW. However the Hadley Cell low pass state is drastically improved compared to the last 3 years, so the 4CH likely won’t be a steroidal monster this year.

Could be a 1997 or 2019 type pattern for J/J/A.

So a wetter than normal summer?