Jump to content

PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale


Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Sunday snow... but its mainly an early morning event.   

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow_24hr_kuchera-7456000 (2).png

It'll come in with the breeze on Sunday morning 

  • Snow 1

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Sunday morning is pretty borderline below 500’. SLE and PDX are 33/34 when precip is falling. 

Yeah... its close.  Seattle is in the mid 30s before dawn on Sunday but dewpoints are initially low so that should do the trick.    The snow in the Seattle area falls between about 2-6 a.m.  

  • Like 2

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Sunday snow... but its mainly an early morning event.   

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow_24hr_kuchera-7456000 (2).png

Fun

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... its close.  Seattle is in the mid 30s before dawn on Sunday but dewpoints are initially low so that should do the trick.    The snow in the Seattle area falls between about 2-6 a.m.  

925mb temps are certainly cold enough.  850s and 925s both fall significantly when the precip arrives.  Excellent model agreement on that being a snow event.  We'll see how the temps actually end up evolving on Sunday during the day.  The nice thing is freezes up Sunday night as well.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My dog is dreaming of summer…

Hopefully I will stay in the blue for Sunday, I’m done with this grey amounts of slop. 
 

Nighty night everyone! 

5E99DD20-5CB4-4114-A226-57F6D8CAEFDA.jpeg

BA4809FF-6212-4049-9189-6EACAAA4CFE6.jpeg

  • Like 4
  • Excited 1
  • Weenie 2

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... it shows gusts to 40 mph in Seattle by late morning.  

Oh sorry it was a No Doubt reference-- but yes, you're right 

  • Like 1
  • lol 1

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Side note... the ECMWF still shows solid snow cover across all of western Oregon on Monday afternoon.  This is going to be a long stretch with snow on the ground.

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow_depth-7531600.png

  • Like 8
  • Confused 1
  • Sad 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Not much of a transition event though... there is some shown on Sunday night again.

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow_6hr-7488400.png

I'm in the sweet spot?  WTF?

  • Like 3

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, KingstonWX said:

wtf

 

This is the new Randy spider photo.

Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm betting the ECMWF is overdoing the south winds on Sunday.  Seen it many times particularly in my location.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

00Z ECMWF shows my area getting maybe 3 inches of snow over the next week.    Meanwhile it shows most of the Portland area over a foot.    Pretty awesome flip of usual script if it works out.  👍

  • Like 6

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The ECMWF is certainly showing King County getting some benefit from cold outflow winds early next week.  Sunday and Monday nights are both pretty darn cold still.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

38 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That is massive improvement over the 12Z run... really impressive.

I really haven't been paying attention on this event, been looking at the weekend event for Western Washington.  But I'm starting to think this event tomorrow might over perform up this way and around the sound. 

  • Like 3

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm very happy with the pattern evolution coming up.  Little if any crappy weather.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I can understand that the mets are cautious about wanting to forecast something that is iffy but they are not even paying attention to the models at all. I have never seen such a discrepancy between what the models are saying and what the weather service is saying. It's going to be interesting to see how this plays out.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

After seeing the Euro, people in the Portland area are about to get nailed. I’m calling for at least 4-6” across that region. Would absolutely not be surprised from higher amounts but I just think 4-6” is the most reasonable scenario based off the models right now.

  • Like 2

2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, RCola said:

And called it. So predictable that Euro. 🙃

Seattle gets snow.  Not sure what you're talking about.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Sandy rocks said:

I can understand that the mets are cautious about wanting to forecast something that is iffy but they are not even paying attention to the models at all. I have never seen such a discrepancy between what the models are saying and what the weather service is saying. It's going to be interesting to see how this plays out.

I think they're being a bit absurd at this point.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, ShawniganLake said:

Maybe a quick inch or so for the sound to Make this a regional event. 

Models are showing 1.5 to 3.5 for a pretty good part of the area.  Everyone keeps trying to downplay the weekend event for Seattle.

  • Like 3

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

per NWS Spokane:

snow continues to circulate around a low pressure circulation spinning over the
Columbia Basin into the Spokane Area, Coeur d'Alene Area, and
Northeast Mountains. These three zones have been extended through
4 AM Wednesday.

 

Mesolow parked over us this evening.  been snowing at various intensities since 5pm, accumulating since 5:30ish.  who knows how much with 20-40mph winds.  WWA extended until 4am. interesting night

 

  • Like 2
  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Seattle gets snow.  Not sure what you're talking about.

Snow depth is a half inch at best for downtown come Monday morning. Lowest amount in the entire lowland region. I can absolutely see this being a pattern where Seattle misses to the south and then to the north. 

While this viewpoint isn't based on hard scientific evidence, I'm a believer in atmospheric memory. The theme this winter has been to keep Seattle on the fringe, and right now, I don't see the weekend being any different. But let's see!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...