PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[Cloud]

41 minutes ago, Doinko said:

 

Amazing accuracy by the Euro.Predicted 10.1 and 10.8 was actual at PDX?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

This just dropped from Environment Canada.

Quote

4:39 PM PST Thursday 23 February 2023
Special weather statement in effect for:

• Metro Vancouver - central including the City of Vancouver Burnaby and New Westminster
• Metro Vancouver - North Shore including West Vancouver and North Vancouver
• Metro Vancouver - northeast including Coquitlam and Maple Ridge
• Metro Vancouver - southeast including Surrey and Langley
• Metro Vancouver - southwest including Richmond and Delta

Heavy snow is expected Saturday night.

Where: Metro Vancouver, the Fraser Valley, Howe Sound, Sunshine Coast, Whistler, and Sea to Sky highway - from Squamish to Whistler.

When: Saturday night.

Hazards: Total snowfall amounts ranging from 10 to 30 cm.

Remarks: A significant weather system will push across the South Coast this weekend bringing widespread snow to the region. Periods of light snow will start on Saturday and intensify to heavy snow Saturday night. Heavy snow is expected to ease Sunday morning for most regions.

Due to the variability in the track of the low pressure system and the strength of the Arctic outflow winds, there is some uncertainty associated with the exact snowfall amounts. Current guidance suggests total snow accumulations of 10 to 20 cm with near 30 cm possible over upslope regions and higher terrain.

Warnings will be issued as the event draws closer. Be prepared for challenging travel conditions Saturday night to Sunday.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to BCstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #BCStorm.

 

[Doinko]

@SouthHillFrostyThe ICON also showed the potential for some places to get nailed days in advance

 

[snow_wizard]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It will be in the low to mid 40s both days this weekend... that is true.    And it will snow Saturday night.  

Not hard to do with these late season events.  Very 1971 ish.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Just now, Doinko said:

@SouthHillFrostyThe ICON also showed the potential for some places to get nailed days in advance

 

Thanks for sending these. I will send them to him 

[Cloud]

Just saw this afternoon’s EPS. Oh shiit. 
 

 

[Snownerd3000]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Not a stupid question, however I don’t know so here is my contribution. 

He's Canadian so it's valid 

[Snownerd3000]

5 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Just saw this afternoon’s EPS. Oh shiit. 
 

 

Imagine this pattern and airmass hit in Dec or Jan, not late Feb 

[Omegaraptor]

2 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Imagine this pattern and airmass hit in Dec or Jan, not late Feb 

Someone says this with pretty much every late-season event that happens around here.

[Front Ranger]

4 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Someone says this with pretty much every late-season event that happens around here.

Probably has to do with how many impressive late season events there have been compared to mid winter.

[Cascadia_Wx]

24 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

That high of 38 at Eureka today is bonkers. First sub-40 high there since December 1990.

I figured this event would put up some pretty fun numbers for you to chew on assuming you are into cold this week. Pretty rare combo of PNW arctic blast and penetration of cold air well into Southern California, with snow along the southern oregon and Northern California coastline.

[Omegaraptor]

7 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I figured this event would put up some pretty fun numbers for you to chew on assuming you are into cold this week. Pretty rare combo of PNW arctic blast and penetration of cold air well into Southern California, with snow along the southern oregon and Northern California coastline.

It is pretty impressive tracking the numbers on this event. You certainly don't see the coast this cold often, especially that far south. I didn't get much snow out of it but it isn't a big deal. I have bigger things in my life to worry about.

BTW, Saturday looks about as beautiful of a winter day as you can possibly hope for in the Cascades - if you like clear skies and powder at the same time.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Snowing in Thurston.

[TT-SEA]

00Z NAM

[Poulsbo Snowman]

13 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Probably has to do with how many impressive late season events there have been compared to mid winter.

Not just the winter.  Last summer almost lasted to November.

[markjb]

1 hour ago, Cold Snap said:

The Weather Channel names them and they are talking about it on there. It’s name is Piper.

Piper ...WTF ... are you kidding !!!!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

We get winter storm Piper?

[Kolk1604]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

We get winter storm Piper?

 Piper Shaw? 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

 Piper Shaw? 

Piper Perabo?

[Cloud]

Questions for PDX folks. 
 

Saw a bunch of road closures this morning in and out of the city. Did this somehow caught ODOT off guard? Or were the rates too much for them to handle? How did the NWS do? 
 

A week ago, the GFS showed a bunch of pepto across the region and I believe this verified to some extent with a large paint to brush that eventually got pinpointed down.
 

Hard to imagine that this wasn’t coming. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

17.6 with very strong winds. If this wind slacks off we ll hit single digits easy. 

[Front Ranger]

18 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I figured this event would put up some pretty fun numbers for you to chew on assuming you are into cold this week. Pretty rare combo of PNW arctic blast and penetration of cold air well into Southern California, with snow along the southern oregon and Northern California coastline.

First blizzard warning since 1989 for the SoCal mountains: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/blizzard-winter-storm-warnings-la-county-southern-california/

[Requiem]

  Now that the event is finally over, my thoughts. Just an absolutely top tier event-- widespread snow, strong winds, and definitely some of the heaviest accumulation since January 2017. In fact, I think in many ways this is comparable to that event and it's definitely not just a "lite" version. Have to mention the almost ground blizzard-like conditions today as strong easterlies whipped up the snow under some of the prettiest blue skies I've seen in years. I genuinely think a storm like this was worth the wait. From the perspective of our little weather nerd subculture it was incredible to have a storm where near-term models were constantly self-correcting in real time-- obviously a terrible thing for most of the general public as we saw what an unprepared and nearly completely unforecast snowstorm did to the city last night. A video from my neck of the woods below.

 

 

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, Requiem said:

  Now that the event is finally over, my thoughts. Just an absolutely top tier event-- widespread snow, strong winds, and definitely some of the heaviest accumulation since January 2017. In fact, I think in many ways this is comparable to that event and it's definitely not just a "lite" version. Have to mention the almost ground blizzard-like conditions today as strong easterlies whipped up the snow under some of the prettiest blue skies I've seen in years. I genuinely think a storm like this was worth the wait. From the perspective of our little weather nerd subculture it was incredible to have a storm where near-term models were constantly self-correcting in real time-- obviously a terrible thing for most of the general public as we saw what an unprepared and nearly completely unforecast snowstorm did to the city last night. A video from my neck of the woods below.

 

 

I'm pretty sure it's just getting started. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The Portland Timbers season-opening match has been postponed now from Saturday to Monday.

https://www.oregonlive.com/timbers/2023/02/portland-timbers-season-opening-match-against-sporting-kansas-city-postponed-until-monday.html?outputType=amp

[Chewbacca Defense]

56 minutes ago, mtep said:

Down to 25 IMBY. Today was the kind of cold that makes you want to punch your steering wheel, but I still had a good time. The sunny skies/higher sun angles juxtaposed with the extreme wind and cold was pretty cool to see. 

Got down to 20 for me last night and got up to 28 during the day.  I am on the southern/eastern edge of the outflow zone so we usually don't get the full brunt of the winds, but we are getting it today. 

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

The Portland Timbers season-opening match has been postponed now from Saturday to Monday.

https://www.oregonlive.com/timbers/2023/02/portland-timbers-season-opening-match-against-sporting-kansas-city-postponed-until-monday.html?outputType=amp

With more on the way, I’m sure even Monday is questionable.

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Questions for PDX folks. 
 

Saw a bunch of road closures this morning in and out of the city. Did this somehow caught ODOT off guard? Or were the rates too much for them to handle? How did the NWS do? 
 

A week ago, the GFS showed a bunch of pepto across the region and I believe this verified to some extent with a large paint to brush that eventually got pinpointed down.
 

Hard to imagine that this wasn’t coming. 

NWS did terrible. No winter weather advisory, until the snow started, then a winter storm warning way after the snowstorm has began east metro. Many people there got stuck during the day. Then the winter storm warning ended before the heaviest snow arrived west metro, which basically brought blizzard conditions. There were definitely 2"+ hour rates in those bands.

[Cascadia_Wx]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

17.6 with very strong winds. If this wind slacks off we ll hit single digits easy. 

God smiled upon thee today Andrew 

[Doinko]

8 minutes ago, Requiem said:

  Now that the event is finally over, my thoughts. Just an absolutely top tier event-- widespread snow, strong winds, and definitely some of the heaviest accumulation since January 2017. In fact, I think in many ways this is comparable to that event and it's definitely not just a "lite" version. Have to mention the almost ground blizzard-like conditions today as strong easterlies whipped up the snow under some of the prettiest blue skies I've seen in years. I genuinely think a storm like this was worth the wait. From the perspective of our little weather nerd subculture it was incredible to have a storm where near-term models were constantly self-correcting in real time-- obviously a terrible thing for most of the general public as we saw what an unprepared and nearly completely unforecast snowstorm did to the city last night. A video from my neck of the woods below.

 

 

How much did you get in the end? The ground blizzard part of this storm was really fun too, I don't remember that in 2017

[Cascadia_Wx]

8 minutes ago, Requiem said:

  Now that the event is finally over, my thoughts. Just an absolutely top tier event-- widespread snow, strong winds, and definitely some of the heaviest accumulation since January 2017. In fact, I think in many ways this is comparable to that event and it's definitely not just a "lite" version. Have to mention the almost ground blizzard-like conditions today as strong easterlies whipped up the snow under some of the prettiest blue skies I've seen in years. I genuinely think a storm like this was worth the wait. From the perspective of our little weather nerd subculture it was incredible to have a storm where near-term models were constantly self-correcting in real time-- obviously a terrible thing for most of the general public as we saw what an unprepared and nearly completely unforecast snowstorm did to the city last night. A video from my neck of the woods below.

 

 

What park is that? Looks like an awesome view.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Mid NAM run

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

NWS did terrible. No winter weather advisory, until the snow started, then a winter storm warning way after the snowstorm has began east metro. Many people there got stuck during the day. Then the winter storm warning ended before the heaviest snow arrived west metro, which basically brought blizzard conditions. There were definitely 2"+ hour rates in those bands.

Thanks for your answer! This would make a lot of sense and frankly inexcusable. What about media coverage? Did they underplayed this as well? 
 

I swear, there are more useful stuff on here than from the NWS or media. Feel for those that were not prepared for this.

[Omegaraptor]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Mid NAM run

Tiny spot of blue right over Tigard!

[bishbish777]

Looking for some advice from you kind folks. We're pretty new to the area and want to make the drive out to Leavenworth this weekend. Do you guys think I-90 will be passable with a Subaru Outback with snow tires? Don't wanna take any serious risks, but also don't wanna cancel for nothing. We were thinking of leaving around noon as the snow tapers off, but it looks like at least a foot will have fallen over the pass overnight.

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, Omegaraptor said:

Tiny spot of blue right over Tigard!

Looks like the south valley could do well too. 

[Cloud]

4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Mid NAM run

I’m gonna go on a limb and say the “Not Another Mistake” model can’t even make a mistake this weekend. 

[Meatyorologist]

4 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Hoping the cold goes well into April and May!

Why stop the fun there? Let's spend most of July and August cloudy and below 65F! 

[Doinko]

5 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Thanks for your answer! This would make a lot of sense and frankly inexcusable. What about media coverage? Did they underplayed this as well? 
 

I swear, there are more useful stuff on here than from the NWS or media. Feel for those that were not prepared for this.

KPTV and Mark Nelsen went with T-3" the day before which was better than the NWS forecasting nothing but still way off. However the morning of the event Mark clearly communicated that the potential for a surprise snowstorm was definitely there and that people should head home as early as they can.

[Requiem]

8 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

What park is that? Looks like an awesome view.

Council Crest! Some of the best views in Portland, imo.

[Requiem]

9 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Mid NAM run

The model is dead to me after yesterday

[joelgombiner]

3 minutes ago, bishbish777 said:

Looking for some advice from you kind folks. We're pretty new to the area and want to make the drive out to Leavenworth this weekend. Do you guys think I-90 will be passable with a Subaru Outback with snow tires? Don't wanna take any serious risks, but also don't wanna cancel for nothing. We were thinking of leaving around noon as the snow tapers off, but it looks like at least a foot will have fallen over the pass overnight.

 

Saturday looks fine but, I won't be surprised if they will close the pass on Sunday for at least a few hours. It often closes with around a foot of snow due to accidents, so it really depends on how people drive and whether they have the right vehicles. Chains might be required on Sunday. 

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

KPTV and Mark Nelsen went with T-3" the day before which was better than the NWS forecasting nothing but still way off. However the morning of the event Mark clearly communicated that the potential for a surprise snowstorm was definitely there and that people should head home as early as they can.

Here's a good timeline

https://www.kptv.com/2023/02/22/first-alert-live-blog-afternoonevening-forcasts-brings-worries/

[SunAndSnow]

22 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Questions for PDX folks. 
 

Saw a bunch of road closures this morning in and out of the city. Did this somehow caught ODOT off guard? Or were the rates too much for them to handle? How did the NWS do? 
 

A week ago, the GFS showed a bunch of pepto across the region and I believe this verified to some extent with a large paint to brush that eventually got pinpointed down.
 

Hard to imagine that this wasn’t coming. 

NWS said trace-1”. Local mets too. Mark caved and said trace-4” right before. No winter storm warning issued until it was already underway. It caught ODOT/PBOT completely off guard. 

[thisisacreativename]

East winds are strong enough here to actually be heard inside.

[Cloud]

4 minutes ago, Doinko said:

KPTV and Mark Nelsen went with T-3" the day before which was better than the NWS forecasting nothing but still way off. However the morning of the event Mark clearly communicated that the potential for a surprise snowstorm was definitely there and that people should head home as early as they can.

Was just going through the NWS PDX Twitter page. Just some horribly communicated stuff. Even when the advisory was put up they said T-1” below 500’. Then later attributed to the very high totals due to the front stalling out. 
 

The models showed this stall 36-48 hours prior. Incredible. 

[dhoffine]

Just now, thisisacreativename said:

East winds are strong enough here to actually be heard inside.

Its been blowing 24 hours straight out here in Enumclaw, longest prolonged wind event I can remember out here for a long time.  Its just won't stop...  Lost some shingles off the roof last night and today.

[TacomaWx]

28 now. Kind of disappointed we didn’t manage a high a bit cooler than 36…but for a late season blast it’s impressive. Temps still dropping quick despite strong east wind here. 

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Was just going through the NWS PDX Twitter page. Just some horribly communicated stuff. Even when the advisory was put up they said T-1” below 500’. Then later attributed to the very high totals due to the front stalling out. 
 

The models showed this stall 36-48 hours prior. Incredible. 

The biggest traffic problems were probably people in the west metro trying to get back home in the central and east metro when snow started falling there and not in the west metro. Then it starting snowing in the hills and everyone got stuck on US-26, and then the blizzard conditions in the hills/west metro after midnight just made it worse.

 

Overall it looks like the Metro ended up with 4-12" on average.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Ended up with a subfreezing high here today. Feels like a shallow win after getting shafted in the snow department. Amazing event north of here. My parents sent these pictures from Nanoose today where there was over a foot of snow.