PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GeM is way better than the GFS in the mid range 

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I call this Rhododendron Tim since it is always sad when it’s too cold or too hot. It loves 75 degree days and damp nights. 

So funny... I was just looking at our rhodies and they look the same.   They always looks like that when it's below freezing.  I assume it's a protective mechanism.    And they always perk right up when it warms up.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, Cold Snap said:

Welp, here we go again. Seems like the totals in the Seattle area are too light.

The totals just about everywhere are too light on that map.

Seems like not only the Portland office has a bad case of NBM-itis.

[Cold Snap]

3 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

I always thought lows hitting the columbia was a good sign for Seattle snow.  What am I missing with this setup?

You are right the reason the last one wasn’t good for the Seattle area was the dry east winds. Though it looks like that won’t be a problem this time around so I think Seattle would get in on the action too.

[Snownerd3000]

2 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Welp, here we go again. Seems like the totals in the Seattle area are too light.

I want a PDX level failure right here. Bury me in cold, fluffy snow.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Regional 

[Snownerd3000]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

Regional 

I'm in the PINK

[Cold Snap]

Boom!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

LOL

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

LOL

The bad news is that this is trending north and will probable continue.

[Gummy]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The bad news is that this is trending north and will probable continue.

Yea, playing catch up to the euro.

[clipper_range]

1 hour ago, TacomaWx said:

Looks like we will only manage 25 this morning. Not sure if we will have high clouds tonight but if we stay clear and the winds slack…could get colder tonight. 

We hit 17 in Bonney Lake, surprised you didn't get atleast 2 degrees lower than us.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, Gummy said:

Yea, playing catch up to the euro.

Going to be close though, all models show it crossing between portland and olympia.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

10 below at my cabin area. 

[LowerGarfield]

Took my son to school by sled. I run like a sled dog and he rides. The lighter accumulation is actually better for it. His teacher saw us coming with a smile and mentioned to him about riding in the sled when dropping him off.

Heck if a workout though. Takes about twenty minutes to recover from when I get back. Going there is fun but having to walk back isn't.

But this is cool. My wife said our son said last week, he was praying for snow so I could take him to school in the sled. So worth it.

[SouthHillFrosty]

5 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Took my son to school by sled. I run like a sled dog and he rides. The lighter accumulation is actually better for it. His teacher saw us coming with a smile and mentioned to him about riding in the sled when dropping him off.

Heck if a workout though. Takes about twenty minutes to recover from when I get back. Going there is fun but having to walk back isn't.

But this is cool. My wife said our son said last week, he was praying for snow so I could take him to school in the sled. So worth it.

Dad of the year

[MossMan]

22 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Definitely not tired of it. I think it helps that I moved from an area where snow was increasingly fleeting and hard to come by. Makes me appreciate it more, even after 56 inches has fallen this season. My family still yells "Dad it's snowing outside!" and we all gather around the window to look. It's so ingrained in our collective conscious that I don't think that will ever change.

I do miss the hubub that surrounds snowstorms in the PNW though. While you will hear people mention "the storm" at the local grocery store in the days leading up to it (particularly ones like this past one, which was hyped as historical) there is just not the same sense of "OMG THE CITY WILL SHUTDOWN, PEOPLE WILL BE STRANDED ON THE FREEWAY, BUSSES WILL SLIDE DOWN HILLS" type of hysteria, which really makes things more fun. Instead it's like a "here we go again" with a sigh type of vibe. Just not the same in that regard.

Love it, thanks! Like you I don’t think my view of snow/cold would ever change from what it is now no matter where I live. If I lived where you are I’m sure my neighbors would think I was some freak that is constantly outside with his phone taking random pictures of his deck and driveway along with dirty icicles attached to my vehicles, etc but oh well lol! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The GFS digs that trough next weekend way further out over the ocean, thus it is not as cold, looks like the ensemble mean isn't as cutoff looking. 

[LowerGarfield]

13 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Dad of the year

Haha thank you. I was regretting it a bit after dropping him off and walking the four blocks back but when my wife told me he'd been praying for snow I was like 'yes!!!' and it was so worth it even if you feel like you ran a marathon.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Uw WRF-GFS shows a non event for most of the PS close to the water. Looks great for foothills

Edited February 24 by SouthHillFrosty

[Prairiedog]

13 hours ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Here we go again! WOW. PDX metro Widespread 6-10" highest totals east of I-205.

Maybe I can build on my 1/16" snowpack. 

[Cold Snap]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Uw WRF-GFS shows a non event for most of the PS

We will probably lose Cliff Mass then.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hard to be all that upset about the operational GFS when the ensembles look improved. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

BRRR! All locations west of the Cascades are still freezing or below as of 9am. Going to be a nice cold and crisp winter day! ️

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This front on Sunday actually looks to have some good juice. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Major ensemble improvement for next weekend. 

[Cold Snap]

GEM looks good for the Seattle area on Tuesday.

[SouthHillFrosty]

The NAM looked great

[Doinko]

Still a good amount of snow

 

[Cold Snap]

Great looking deformation band on the NAM. Too bad it’s out over the water mostly.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

43 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Love it, thanks! Like you I don’t think my view of snow/cold would ever change from what it is now no matter where I live. If I lived where you are I’m sure my neighbors would think I was some freak that is constantly outside with his phone taking random pictures of his deck and driveway along with dirty icicles attached to my vehicles, etc but oh well lol! 

Meh. Been there, done that. It gets old. Just as glad to live someplace where snow is more of an occasional treat than a daily grind.

[bainbridgekid]

29 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Uw WRF-GFS shows a non event for most of the PS close to the water. Looks great for foothills

Wouldn’t call this a non event for the Central Sound. This pattern doesn’t favor the South Sound/Swamp as much though for sure. 

 

[ShawniganLake]

There have been times over the past couple days that every station in Canada has been below freezing.  Not actually a common occurrence 

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Wouldn’t call this a non event for the Central Sound. This pattern doesn’t favor the South Sound/Swamp as much though for sure. 

 

Looks amazing actually!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS operational is a pretty significant outlier from its mean next weekend. 

[OysterPrintout]

1 hour ago, Cold Snap said:

Could the Portland area actually get another big snow out of this? The setup looks pretty similar.

Low just kinda plows onshore instead of sliding south so you end up with some south winds and 34/35 which is a low confidence scenario in most times of the year let alone last week of Feb. Could work out but has more of that "snow in the air when precip picks up" feel to me.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

End of the GFS. Hopefully this is not an outlier. 

[SnarkyGoblin]

8 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Wouldn’t call this a non event for the Central Sound. This pattern doesn’t favor the South Sound/Swamp as much though for sure. 

 

Just a wicked rain shadow.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

36 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Uw WRF-GFS shows a non event for most of the PS close to the water. Looks great for foothills

Looks pretty good to me

[smerfylicious]

It keeps taking away more and more from here. Maybe I'll just not look at the models and get 4'. Seems to be the NWS strategy.

[PuyallupChris]

1 hour ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Regional 

Swamp alert. Someone should have told me about the swamp when I moved to the south end. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Looks like the official low at PDX was 25, same as yesterday. Hopefully they can improve on that by midnight tonight.

Still just 30 there currently, which is impressive. I’m guessing they top out in the 36-38 range today.

[Cascadia_Wx]

42 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Hard to be all that upset about the operational GFS when the ensembles look improved. 

A little birdie told me the operational is a massive outlier by next weekend.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

A little birdie told me the operational is a massive outlier by next weekend.

Jesse, you would not believe it!

[SouthHillFrosty]

21 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Wouldn’t call this a non event for the Central Sound. This pattern doesn’t favor the South Sound/Swamp as much though for sure. 

 

Non event from Olympia to almost Bellingham close to the water. Green= very marginal snow. Foothills look good tho.  East of I-5 should do well north of Seattle again 
 

 

Edited February 24 by SouthHillFrosty

[ShawniganLake]

Abbotsford dropped to 18, which is decent considering they kept the wind all night. 
 

Nanaimo lost the wind and dropped to 10F

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Central Oregon looks ridiculously cold today. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

PDX, EUG, SLE all sitting at 30. They had lows of 25,24,23 respectively. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF

[MillCreekMike]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Non event from Olympia to almost Bellingham close to the water. Green= very marginal snow. Foothills look good tho. 
 

 

Yeah, not super optimistic for my area, but I know I’ll probably be a 10 minute drive to much higher snowfall amounts lol