PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[LowerGarfield]

Took my son to school by sled. I run like a sled dog and he rides. The lighter accumulation is actually better for it. His teacher saw us coming with a smile and mentioned to him about riding in the sled when dropping him off.

Heck if a workout though. Takes about twenty minutes to recover from when I get back. Going there is fun but having to walk back isn't.

But this is cool. My wife said our son said last week, he was praying for snow so I could take him to school in the sled. So worth it.

[SouthHillFrosty]

5 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Took my son to school by sled. I run like a sled dog and he rides. The lighter accumulation is actually better for it. His teacher saw us coming with a smile and mentioned to him about riding in the sled when dropping him off.

Heck if a workout though. Takes about twenty minutes to recover from when I get back. Going there is fun but having to walk back isn't.

But this is cool. My wife said our son said last week, he was praying for snow so I could take him to school in the sled. So worth it.

Dad of the year

[MossMan]

22 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Definitely not tired of it. I think it helps that I moved from an area where snow was increasingly fleeting and hard to come by. Makes me appreciate it more, even after 56 inches has fallen this season. My family still yells "Dad it's snowing outside!" and we all gather around the window to look. It's so ingrained in our collective conscious that I don't think that will ever change.

I do miss the hubub that surrounds snowstorms in the PNW though. While you will hear people mention "the storm" at the local grocery store in the days leading up to it (particularly ones like this past one, which was hyped as historical) there is just not the same sense of "OMG THE CITY WILL SHUTDOWN, PEOPLE WILL BE STRANDED ON THE FREEWAY, BUSSES WILL SLIDE DOWN HILLS" type of hysteria, which really makes things more fun. Instead it's like a "here we go again" with a sigh type of vibe. Just not the same in that regard.

Love it, thanks! Like you I don’t think my view of snow/cold would ever change from what it is now no matter where I live. If I lived where you are I’m sure my neighbors would think I was some freak that is constantly outside with his phone taking random pictures of his deck and driveway along with dirty icicles attached to my vehicles, etc but oh well lol! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The GFS digs that trough next weekend way further out over the ocean, thus it is not as cold, looks like the ensemble mean isn't as cutoff looking. 

[LowerGarfield]

13 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Dad of the year

Haha thank you. I was regretting it a bit after dropping him off and walking the four blocks back but when my wife told me he'd been praying for snow I was like 'yes!!!' and it was so worth it even if you feel like you ran a marathon.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Uw WRF-GFS shows a non event for most of the PS close to the water. Looks great for foothills

Edited February 24 by SouthHillFrosty

[Prairiedog]

13 hours ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Here we go again! WOW. PDX metro Widespread 6-10" highest totals east of I-205.

Maybe I can build on my 1/16" snowpack. 

[Cold Snap]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Uw WRF-GFS shows a non event for most of the PS

We will probably lose Cliff Mass then.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hard to be all that upset about the operational GFS when the ensembles look improved. 

[hawkstwelve]

8 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Love it, thanks! Like you I don’t think my view of snow/cold would ever change from what it is now no matter where I live. If I lived where you are I’m sure my neighbors would think I was some freak that is constantly outside with his phone taking random pictures of his deck and driveway along with dirty icicles attached to my vehicles, etc but oh well lol! 

It's funny you say that! I've gone out during a few storms when it's dumping, windy, and freaking colder than all hell and I'm taking pictures, measuring, sometimes just standing out there and soaking it all in. There's been more than a couple times where I think about my neighbors looking outside and saying "What the heck is that weird guy doing out there?" but I don't care. No matter if it's the first storm of the season or the fifth, I will enjoy the snowstorm as I have enjoyed all snowstorms - experiencing it first hand! And no amount of Midwestern judgement will change that.  

[Frontal Snowsquall]

BRRR! All locations west of the Cascades are still freezing or below as of 9am. Going to be a nice cold and crisp winter day! ️

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This front on Sunday actually looks to have some good juice. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Major ensemble improvement for next weekend. 

[Cold Snap]

GEM looks good for the Seattle area on Tuesday.

[SouthHillFrosty]

The NAM looked great

[Doinko]

Still a good amount of snow

 

[Cold Snap]

Great looking deformation band on the NAM. Too bad it’s out over the water mostly.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

43 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Love it, thanks! Like you I don’t think my view of snow/cold would ever change from what it is now no matter where I live. If I lived where you are I’m sure my neighbors would think I was some freak that is constantly outside with his phone taking random pictures of his deck and driveway along with dirty icicles attached to my vehicles, etc but oh well lol! 

Meh. Been there, done that. It gets old. Just as glad to live someplace where snow is more of an occasional treat than a daily grind.

[bainbridgekid]

29 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Uw WRF-GFS shows a non event for most of the PS close to the water. Looks great for foothills

Wouldn’t call this a non event for the Central Sound. This pattern doesn’t favor the South Sound/Swamp as much though for sure. 

 

[ShawniganLake]

There have been times over the past couple days that every station in Canada has been below freezing.  Not actually a common occurrence 

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Wouldn’t call this a non event for the Central Sound. This pattern doesn’t favor the South Sound/Swamp as much though for sure. 

 

Looks amazing actually!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS operational is a pretty significant outlier from its mean next weekend. 

[OysterPrintout]

1 hour ago, Cold Snap said:

Could the Portland area actually get another big snow out of this? The setup looks pretty similar.

Low just kinda plows onshore instead of sliding south so you end up with some south winds and 34/35 which is a low confidence scenario in most times of the year let alone last week of Feb. Could work out but has more of that "snow in the air when precip picks up" feel to me.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

End of the GFS. Hopefully this is not an outlier. 

[SnarkyGoblin]

8 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Wouldn’t call this a non event for the Central Sound. This pattern doesn’t favor the South Sound/Swamp as much though for sure. 

 

Just a wicked rain shadow.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

36 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Uw WRF-GFS shows a non event for most of the PS close to the water. Looks great for foothills

Looks pretty good to me

[smerfylicious]

It keeps taking away more and more from here. Maybe I'll just not look at the models and get 4'. Seems to be the NWS strategy.

[PuyallupChris]

1 hour ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Regional 

Swamp alert. Someone should have told me about the swamp when I moved to the south end. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Looks like the official low at PDX was 25, same as yesterday. Hopefully they can improve on that by midnight tonight.

Still just 30 there currently, which is impressive. I’m guessing they top out in the 36-38 range today.

[Cascadia_Wx]

42 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Hard to be all that upset about the operational GFS when the ensembles look improved. 

A little birdie told me the operational is a massive outlier by next weekend.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

A little birdie told me the operational is a massive outlier by next weekend.

Jesse, you would not believe it!

[SouthHillFrosty]

21 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Wouldn’t call this a non event for the Central Sound. This pattern doesn’t favor the South Sound/Swamp as much though for sure. 

 

Non event from Olympia to almost Bellingham close to the water. Green= very marginal snow. Foothills look good tho.  East of I-5 should do well north of Seattle again 
 

 

Edited February 24 by SouthHillFrosty

[ShawniganLake]

Abbotsford dropped to 18, which is decent considering they kept the wind all night. 
 

Nanaimo lost the wind and dropped to 10F

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Central Oregon looks ridiculously cold today. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

PDX, EUG, SLE all sitting at 30. They had lows of 25,24,23 respectively. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF

[MillCreekMike]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Non event from Olympia to almost Bellingham close to the water. Green= very marginal snow. Foothills look good tho. 
 

 

Yeah, not super optimistic for my area, but I know I’ll probably be a 10 minute drive to much higher snowfall amounts lol

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Abbotsford dropped to 18, which is decent considering they kept the wind all night. 
 

Nanaimo lost the wind and dropped to 10F

10°F is insanely cold for this late in the season.

Got down to 19°F here. Even that is very respectable considering.

[Cold Snap]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF

Looks like it cut back on totals in the south sound a bit and added a bit to the totals up north.

[dhoffine]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF

Grrr, just can't buy a good snowstorm...

[MossMan]

7 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

A little birdie told me the operational is a massive outlier by next weekend.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF

Is snow still falling at this hour? 

 

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF

It’s okay, but I’m sticking with the WRF! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

WoW

[Gummy]

Euro precip amounts are much lower than the GFS, 0.25 vs 0.39 in Seattle.

[ShawniganLake]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF

Vancouver BC’s turn. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Is snow still falling at this hour? 

 

For another 1-2 hours in western OR.    Western WA is being blasted by the SSW wind and the main front is through by 5 a.m.

Here is snow through 10 a.m.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF

This snow shadow is always a bummer for my location. I am in the Port Angeles foothills at 1000' and will be riding the edge of this precip line. Should be cold enough for snow most of the week, just need to get lucky and not get shadowed. Historically, I end up with very little in this setup. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

For another 1-2 hours in western OR.    Western WA is being blasted by the SSW wind and the main front is through by 5 a.m.

Here is snow through 10 a.m.

I am pretty convinced this will not have accumulating snow south of PDX. Clark County might do okay, I think even up here it may start as rain and quickly transition to snow. 

Edited February 24 by SilverFallsAndrew

[ShawniganLake]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I am pretty convinced this will not have accumulating snow south of PDX. Clark County might do okay, I think even up here it may start as rain and quickly transition to rain. 

The rain to rain transition is always a tricky call.