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PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale


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2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

They issued a WWA.

The WWA they issued appears to be for this mornings snow. They don’t say anything about tonight in it.

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2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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Back at the house there's just a trace. Got about an inch here at work in Westlake. Looks like this evens the seasonal snowfall gap in the immediate metro area that was created by December's transitional event that favored the north end of the city, as well as the marginal overrunning events of Nov/Dec which dotted my house but barely brought a mix to the city.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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If you decide to kick the totals prior to say 4PM here as snow in the air but non sticking you still result with mostly 2-4" solutions so the maps would look a lot more "realistic" in that scenario. Obviously other areas in the metro are gonna do better.

Sylvan Hill had wet non-sticking snow. Mostly a mix on the way out to 185th.

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1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Nothing on the ground here and it's stopped snowing, but the GRAF looks fantastic. Almost 10" of snow here

 

GRAF_SNOW_12z.jpg

And note that it’s FOX 12 running those maps and calling them plausible. They are normally conservative on snow amounts. Just can’t understand the official NWS forecast. Even east Portland is going to be an icy mess in that scenario when 2" of snow and slush freeze solid on the streets.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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14 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

March 1951 repeat except it starts the last week of February?

It's looking like a March 1952 repeat down this way, which is interesting since this is the coldest Nov-Feb 20th since the winter of 1951-1952.

March of 1951 we got 21" of snow

March of 1952 we got 121" of snow. 

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Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

And note that it’s FOX 12 running those maps and calling them plausible. They are normally conservative on snow amounts. Just can’t understand the official NWS forecast. Even east Portland is going to be an icy mess in that scenario when 2" of snow and slush freeze solid on the streets.

Those are auto-generated maps, they have maps for the GFS/Euro and GRAF. They don't show all on air though, but this model nailed the valentine's day snow so it's definitely a pretty accurate one

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1 minute ago, OysterPrintout said:

If you decide to kick the totals prior to say 4PM here as snow in the air but non sticking you still result with mostly 2-4" solutions so the maps would look a lot more "realistic" in that scenario. Obviously other areas in the metro are gonna do better.

Sylvan Hill had wet non-sticking snow. Mostly a mix on the way out to 185th.

Good point, I keep wondering how much of the snow from the maps with the mega totals is forecast to fall around peak “warming” today. I think much of the metro under 500’ will struggle to see accumulation from about 11-4.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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56 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

So no one is going to mention that the Canadian RDPS just spit out 3 ******* FEET of snow in Portland? Shows the temps dropping below freezing by noon and then absolutely nukes the city.

hrdps-portland-total_snow_kuchera-7222000.png

Could be overdone.  I like the HRDPS but all of the Canadian models tend to run a little moist a lot of the time.  Placement could be right on the heaviest band but just over juiced on the amounts. 

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12 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

They issued a WWA.

What are your thoughts on this as to why models switched back to a more convective solution? Do you buy the solutions the models are spitting out right now?

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Good point, I keep wondering how much of the snow from the maps with the mega totals is forecast to fall around peak “warming” today. I think much of the metro under 500’ will struggle to see accumulation from about 11-4.

In the case of the Euro - about half of it. In the case of the recently run GFS - more than that even looks like.

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3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Well this winter is now at A- status with the nearly 3” unforecasted stunt that Mother Nature pulled this morning! My truck covered in snow under the carport equals a north wind! Love that sight! 

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Wow 3” that’s pretty solid. That’s going to stick around all week and you’ll probably get snow Sunday and beyond. 

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2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Most places north of Seattle are below freezing…just above south. Still light snow here in Redmond…sea tac at 32 and light snow. it’s early in the day but I suspect today won’t get out of the 30s especially if we maintain some cloud cover. 

28 here!

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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1 minute ago, Requiem said:

What are your thoughts on this as to why models switched back to a more convective solution? Do you buy the solutions the models are spitting out right now?

Hard to say, just model noise I suppose. I think the west side will see plenty of enhancement overnight as the offshore flow slowly deepens and meaningful advection kicks in. Even 24 hours from now dynamics are still pretty decent.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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That was a classic NWS Seattle moment as a WWA was issued after the peak of the event. I know this wasn’t really in the models but it was clear there was a good setup at around 5 or 6 this morning.

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(Previous name: MillCreekMike)

Everett, WA (elev. 180’)

2023-2024 Snowfall:

1/11: Tr.

1/18: Tr.

Go M’s

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