PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Taking a break from my philanthropy to check the forum. 

Not two-fisting it?

[RentonHill]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Taking a break from my philanthropy to check the forum. 

You kinda look like the guy who led his kids to live that 1800s lifestyle as part of an experiment in The Village 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

A period of offshore flow on Monday morning looks like a pretty good bet to me ahead of that storm.

Should guarantee another round of sticking snow IMO for most places including PDX. That plus the fact that I'll be 2000 miles away.

Monday evening into Tuesday looks like the real deal. I’m more excited about that period than Sunday morning. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Taking a break from my philanthropy to check the forum. 

My Philanthropy Phriday idea has really been taking off Andrew.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

6 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

I think we've talked about this before but we both went to the same school (USU). I grew up in the SLC area and lived in Northern Utah for quite a while and moving to somewhere without regular snow was a highly motivating factor at the time. I love snow now but lord knows I do not miss 6 months of shoveling and scraping my car off every morning. The shine comes off that apple real quick.

Yeah, Logan winters are enough to make one want less winter!

[Deweydog]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Taking a break from my philanthropy to check the forum. 

I doubt any of those schleps know the 00z just started.

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Monday evening into Tuesday looks like the real deal. I’m more excited about that period than Sunday morning. 

Sunday morning looks pretty quick and pointless outside of some favored Coast Range areas. 

#meltbymidmorning

[Gummy]

Step back on snow totals for the 00z. It is all unraveling now.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

On 2/23/2023 at 4:44 PM, TacomaWx said:

Also easy to forget overrunning events are almost always underdone. I’d be surprised if we got less than 1.5-2” 

I don’t even want to think of how buried I’ll get if the models are underdoing it up here!

[Perturbed Member]

12 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

A period of offshore flow on Monday morning looks like a pretty good bet to me ahead of that storm.

Should guarantee another round of sticking snow IMO for most places including PDX. That plus the fact that I'll be 2000 miles away.

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, Gummy said:

Step back on snow totals for the 00z. It is all unraveling now.

Looks slightly better to me?

[MillCreekMike]

2 minutes ago, Gummy said:

Step back on snow totals for the 00z. It is all unraveling now.

Looks basically the same as the 18z run

[Cold Snap]

23 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Did they just update this? The tweet of his I shared earlier looked way more meager than this.

The tweet was from 7 hours ago. But it was tweeted on the UW dawgcast twitter not Anthony’s.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Not two-fisting it?

Matt Templeman from Kezi is the emcee.  

[Cloud]

Still looks good for a solid 1-3” here.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Matt Templeman from Kezi is the emcee.  

Ah so he came and took one of them from you.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Sunday morning looks pretty quick and pointless outside of some favored Coast Range areas. 

#meltbymidmorning

I’m hoping to pick up a few inches, but the real potential is a day later. 

[WildrootParable]

40 minutes ago, KingstonWX said:

As much as the NWS frustrates me, I'd hate to be the one to have to make the call on whether or not to issue watches and warnings in a situation like this. Despite the pepto models, it's still looking to be a marginal event, especially at this time of year, and the reactions from the public when they over-warn or hype everyone up for something that busts at the last minute is sometimes worse than the outcry they are getting right now for under-warning. For some reason the public loses more trust from the former than the latter, in my observations anyway.

I think about this a lot. 

When the consequences for being wrong are so hazardous, I really don't know why you wouldn't want to err on the side of over-caution. The worst that happens if they're wrong is that people canceled plans and stocked up on bread and milk for no reason. Right? But they're still alive, at home, and uninjured, albeit maybe a bit miffed. The consequences for being wrong in the other direction--no warnings, forecast bust--are downright scary, and we've seen it play out many times.  

[Mr Marine Layer]

4 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Something tells me most of us will get some 60-burgers next month.

You never know with climate change

[MillCreekMike]

Deformation band not packing as much of a punch when compared to the 18z

[Cloud]

Tuesday’s system trajectory is perfection for south and central sound.

[Mr Marine Layer]

Progressive storm systems typically move from the left to the right. The AR in California is regressing.

[SunAndSnow]

3 hours ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

You know I've never talked about it on here but my dream at a young age was to be a meteorologist but my parents could not afford college so i did what was natural for me and became a auto technician. At age 10 i wanted to learn about weather. To this day it still breaks my heart i didn't get to do that.

 

This hits home, except I didn’t meet the weather bug until I was in my late 20’s. If I could go back I would have gotten a meteorology degree instead. Weather is one of the things that I’m most excited about. I always joke with my husband if we strike it rich I’m quitting my job and going back to school for that!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

00Z Goofus is better for the central Sound Saturday night. A little worse for me but still plenty snowy.

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Anybody ellse gett that feeling that their brain is somtimes movning around alllo ve rte body? Been felling thatt alot ovr yhe past couple weweks and itt's been bad in wavees todday.

[Cascadia_Wx]

12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Matt Templeman from Kezi is the emcee.  

Karl Bonner and DJ Food Stamps cancelled?

[Doinko]

KATU is forecasting 2-7"?? Seems kind of ridiculous. Everyone is now scared after the bust earlier

[Snownerd3000]

This Sat through Wednesday looks like a lot of fun. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Still looks good

[RCola]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Still looks good

Wondering why my map is less than yours for presumably the same model, same hour.

[Blizzard777]

1 hour ago, Christensen87 said:

Lake Wilderness.

Cold but beautiful evening. Grabbing a beer now. Heading to Ellensburg tomorrow, driving back Sunday morning should be fun. Cheers to many snowy days ahead OR & WA peeps! 

Love that shot!!! 

[Deweydog]

12 minutes ago, Doinko said:

KATU is forecasting 2-7"?? Seems kind of ridiculous. Everyone is now scared after the bust earlier

Classic.

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Classic.

I can send them your email in case they need some advize.

[snow_wizard]

No doubt the mid level temps get a bit dicey for parts of the Puget Sound area tomorrow night.  I think the more borderline areas may only get an inch or so.  The Monday night / Tuesday morning thing could be a pretty deal for areas that might get shafted a little bit tomorrow night though.  Let's not forget the ECMWF has been showing snow between Seattle and Tacoma late Sunday night as well.

[Kolk1604]

18z EMCWF looks great 

[MillCreekMike]

Not weather related but I think some on here might appreciate this. Apparently the WSDOT used to make tapes of them driving state highways back in the 80s/90s and this guy has been uploading them to YouTube. This is the upload of SR-527 (Bothell Everett Highway) in 1983, and there is tons and tons of other highways on that channel. I’ve always wanted to know what the roads I grew up on looked like way back in the day so this is super cool for me.

https://youtu.be/SXDq7mUbNow

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I can send them your email in case they need some advize.

They already have it thanks to all my sensor manifesto emailz.

That said, what’s ur call?

[snow_wizard]

11 minutes ago, RCola said:

Wondering why my map is less than yours for presumably the same model, same hour.

Weird.  The bottom one look more smoothed for some reason.

[Cold Snap]

GEM nails the central sound early Tuesday morning.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Party keeps going with snow still falling…

[snow_wizard]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

Party keeps going with snow still falling…

SW WA gets crushed on this run.  Might trend a bit north.

[Kolk1604]

If you believe the GFS and a 10:1 Ratio, Longview gets hammered 

[GoldenEars]

I love seeing the increase in snow depth on the mountains on days like this. 

[Cold Snap]

4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Party keeps going with snow still falling…

That looks like it would be historic for March. It also seems to spread north right after that as well.

[snow_wizard]

This run is going Drunkle on us!

[SouthHillFrosty]

BOOM

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Cold Snap said:

That looks like it would be historic for late March. It also seems to spread north right after that as well.

It's early March, but still really good for that!

[VancouverIslandSouth]

2 hours ago, Cloud said:

You can probably get the best of both worlds. Lake WA is massive and plenty of neighborhoods with waterfronts. I personally love Newcastle or Mercer Island. 

For those willing to jump across the border the Lantzville-Comox stretch on Vancouver Island may have some of the best ocean front housing anywhere in the PNW. The views across the Stait are amazing, there's warm sandy beaches all the way along, tons of parks and trails, the marine layer is generally blocked and the Strait warms up near 70F in the summer so it doesn't have the bite of other coastal regions. That area also gets more summer convection than other parts of the island. Plus they almost always get Strait-effect snow going into Arctic air followed by cool crisp days.

I may try living at my parents ocean front place there when they move to the new place they're building nearby. This is right on the ocean but still regularly gets more snow than elevated areas further south. This is how it looked there yesterday and the one below is last week:

[snow_wizard]

I think the GFS and ECMWF have made it abundantly clear most if not all people on the forum will be seeing snow next week.

[Cascadia_Wx]

10 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

They already have it thanks to all my sensor manifesto emailz.

That said, what’s ur call?

Alright, it’s a little Rush Limbaugh but here goes...

2/22 - 42/33 Trace!

2/23 - 38/31 BIGGER Trace!

Feeling confident!!

 

Edited February 25 by Cascadia_Wx