PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Both the nam and fv3 lift this very nice snow band through the sound Tuesday morning. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

You may want to look at the short range models instead of the longer range. Short range should have a better handle on how much moisture these systems will produce. 

ECMWF is by far the best model for surface details within 3 days.    It may go out to 10 days... but the absolutely best part of the ECMWF is its accuracy with the surface details in the short range.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Bremerton and Shelton both hit 17 degrees.  

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Both the nam and fv3 lift this very nice snow band through the sound Tuesday morning. 

I think Monday night and Tuesday is the main period to watch for some crazy things to happen.  

[TacomaWx]

9 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The ECMWF is struggling with the low placement Tuesday morning.  Every model has it between Olympia and Astoria and ECMWF has it near port angles. 

We will see if it comes around. Could really be the difference between a decent event or a more significant one. 

[Cold Snap]

FWIW the NBM is showing some 6”+ amounts in the EPSL through next Sunday.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

We will see if it comes around. Could really be the difference between a decent event or a more significant one. 

Yeah... the Tuesday situation is just hard for the models in general.   Similar to the situation in Portland earlier this week.   The potential for a major event somewhere is really high that day and even the ECMWF will bounce around with that scenario.  

[The Cats Meow]

I want that sucker to wind up and lift some snow bands from Olympia to Seattle and bury the region in a heavy wet snow.

Let's do this!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

Check out these D8-14 500mb analogs.  

March 1951… this map is Jim-approved!

[Cold Snap]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I think Monday night and Tuesday is the main period to watch for some crazy things to happen.  

Just hoping the precip shield can extend farther east than what these are showing. Though it’s probably very hard for the models to nail exactly how far east it goes.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I think Monday night and Tuesday is the main period to watch for some crazy things to happen.  

This is Monday morning I posted.  Just noticed 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

06Z models say I probably get 8–10" tonight. Actually they say I get a bit more than that but I’m being conservative in my forecast.

 

[TacomaWx]

Gfs going with 1.4” here tonight. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

12 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

FWIW the NBM is showing some 6”+ amounts in the EPSL through next Sunday.

Wow I'm in that pepto! That is impressive for the NBM. Shows almost a foot.

Edited February 25 by MR.SNOWMIZER

[Rubus Leucodermis]

38 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ICON for the system tonight.

Dr. No has become Dr. Yes!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

So far the 12z gfs looks great. 

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

March 1951… this map is Jim-approved!

I have always been fascinated with 1951.    After an insanely cold and snowy period in early March... it turned into a spectacular spring.   It rained on only 4 days out here in April with numerous days in the 70s.   And it was just a gorgeous summer.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

38 minutes ago, luterra said:

17 in Corvallis with no snow cover.  I thought snowy areas might be colder.

We hit 17 with 10” depth. We were 5 deg colder yesterday. 

 

32 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

12z Meso models all improved. Love to see it as 9/10 times it feels like it goes the other way right before the event. Here we go! 

If you don’t hear from me this week, please send a plow. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I have always been fascinated with 1951.    After an insanely cold and snowy period in early March... it turned into a spectacular spring.   It rained on only 4 days out here in April with numerous days in the 70s.   And it was just a gorgeous summer.

I looked at late a March 1951 and it actually wasn’t super warm up here, but given we peaked with almost 40” snow depth on the 10th, I have a feeling snow cover would have held temps down a bit up here. 

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I looked at late a March 1951 and it actually wasn’t super warm up here, but given we peaked with almost 40” snow depth on the 10th, I have a feeling snow cover would have held temps down a bit up here. 

Yeah... the rest of March was not warm.    But it really dried out during the second half of the month.   The warmest temp at SEA was 63.     But April was just crazy.   It did not rain at all at SEA until the 18th and only rained on 4 days that month.     Many days at 65+ degrees but with chilly nights which kept the overall average cool.    Based on the temps it must have been a very sunny month.  

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS for the Monday night and Tuesday period.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This is a text book winter storm track for the Puget Sound.  Could be a major event. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

12Z GEM and GFS say I get over a foot tonight.

[Snownerd3000]

I love how everywhere around me has a WWA. Pretty rare to have Woodinville not included in EPSL advisories.

 

Also, I've been telling my wife about this weekend all week and she only now believes bc her app shows snow starting tonight at 8 lol. Got to love it. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Ended up with a very impressive low of 16 here. Clear and calm with several inches of snow still around. Great to see PDX finally hit teens as well after a couple swings and misses this winter.

Still just 19. Will be interested to see how chilly today stays with increasing clouds later on.

[TT-SEA]

Partly sunny morning with some thin high clouds.  The crusty remains of our snow cover should get a nice boost by tomorrow morning.

[The Cats Meow]

2 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

I love how everywhere around me has a WWA. Pretty rare to have Woodinville not included in EPSL advisories.

 

Also, I've been telling my wife about this weekend all week and she only now believes bc her app shows snow starting tonight at 8 lol. Got to love it. 

My app shows rain starting at about 7pm.

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

This is a text book winter storm track for the Puget Sound.  Could be a major event. 

Yep... that will be a very interesting day.  

[T-Town]

28 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Gfs going with 1.4” here tonight. 

That works. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

It’s rare to see such model consistency, particularly for the big dumping that’s heading my way. Emotionally I still have a hard time believing I’m going to score so big twice in one season, but rationally, model consensus is model consensus.

[Kolk1604]

17 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We hit 17 with 10” depth. We were 5 deg colder yesterday. 

 

If you don’t hear from me this week, please send a plow. 

I'll send Randy and his army of snow blowers. 

[MillCreekMike]

This is a weird graphic. Not a single gray “snow” block for anyone Michael Snyder replied to this saying “this isn’t a forecast”

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yep... that will be a very interesting day.  

The timing is good, that loop is from 9pm to 6am Tuesday morning I believe. 

[The Blob]

So how much snow do you guys think Portland will get tonight?

[umadbro]

Pdx NWS has downgraded tonight to a WWA above 500’. Apparently they’ve learned nothing.

[Christensen87]

GFS keeps showing basically the same thing that’s happening tonight - Tuesday, happening again on Thursday - next weekend. 

[joelgombiner]

3 minutes ago, MillCreekMike said:

This is a weird graphic. Not a single gray “snow” block for anyone Michael Snyder replied to this saying “this isn’t a forecast”

The graphic doesn't match the text in the tweet either. Time for NWS to give it a rest with the NBM probabilities... they're clearly inaccurate and they are in no way "probabilities". 

[luterra]

30 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We hit 17 with 10” depth. We were 5 deg colder yesterday. 

 

If you don’t hear from me this week, please send a plow. 

You must have been protected from the NE winds yesterday.  We were stable at 24 all night with consistent mixing and some serious wind chill.

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The timing is good, that loop is from 9pm to 6am Tuesday morning I believe. 

For sure... that is all happening when its dark.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Next weekend definitely trending colder. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z GEM for tonight and then for Tuesday system.

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Next weekend definitely trending colder. 

Yesterday’s 12z GFS ensembles called it.

[Phil]

From 80+ degrees to snow in 36hrs

 

[TacomaWx]

12 minutes ago, MillCreekMike said:

This is a weird graphic. Not a single gray “snow” block for anyone Michael Snyder replied to this saying “this isn’t a forecast”

Why can’t they just put out the forecasted accumulation maps like they normally do instead of this probability graph BS. This also gives the impression there won’t be sticking snow in western WA tonight which is definitely not the case. In some places this actually might be a significant snow event especially out on the kitsap peninsula, up north near the border and in the foothills. 

[snowbustcity]

Seems like seattle is a toss up huh 

[TeacherLori]

What is EPSL?

[TacomaWx]

Just now, TeacherLori said:

What is EPSL?

East Puget sound lowlands. Basically areas closer to the foothills east of 405 roughly. 

[TeacherLori]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

East Puget sound lowlands. Basically areas closer to the foothills east of 405 roughly. 

Ahh! Thank you! I was trying to work it out, and figured East Puget Sound, but couldn't get that L!

[ShawniganLake]

34 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS for the Monday night and Tuesday period.

That’ll shift north  

[FroYoBro]

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Next weekend definitely trending colder. 

Neat.