PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Nice uptick from the EURO for the Tuesday system. Gonna be a fun one! 

Are you on your way back from Hawaii yet?

[SouthHillFrosty]

Nice

[Hawksfan2008]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Are you on your way back from Hawaii yet?

Land around 11pm tonight! 

[Kolk1604]

4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Nice

If only we can trust it. Looks like the south sound is more snowy 

[TacomaWx]

5 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Nice

Going to have a tough time getting more than 3-5” near the Puget banana belt tonight-Wednesday. You’ll probably do a bit better than me. I’m guessing at the end of it we get 3-4” total IMBY over the next few days.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Up to 37 in North Bend and still sunny.  The southward progression of the clouds has stalled as the ECMWF showed.

Just 32 here. 

[MWG]

Currently 42F and sunny! Enjoying this sun before the rain comes in. 

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Land around 11pm tonight! 

Might be a snowy drive home.

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Just 32 here. 

Most of the stations out here are in the upper 30s and low 40s.   Up to 40 now in North Bend.

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

It doesn't even matter if it was 55 degrees today... road surfaces cool down very quickly when precip and cold air arrives.   If the temp/dewpoint support it then snow will stick to roads no matter what the temperatures were beforehand.  

wetbulb is the key, yep

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Most of the stations out here are in the upper 30s and low 40s.   Up to 40 now in North Bend.

Still just 36 at seatac

[joelgombiner]

19 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

Please quarantine this insanity to the political forum thanks

Posters that have lost credibility recently: me 

[fubario]

46 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

no more maps, no more maps, no more maps

But...but.. how will Tim be able to show us temps will be too high for any meaningful snow this week and models reflecting a slight chance of a death ridge in the long range, huh? HUH??

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This is looking like a serious event. The deeper map is after 84 hr period. 

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

This is looking like a serious event. The deeper map is after 84 hr period. 

Cliff mass is ONBOARD. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Cliff mass is ONBOARD. 

The crazy train?

[Cold Snap]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

This is looking like a serious event. The deeper map is after 84 hr period. 

Kind of funny how the 1.33km skunks the Snoqualmie valley. Still have a blue dot of 2 inches over me though.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, fubario said:

But...but.. how will Tim be able to show us temps will be too high for any meaningful snow this week and models reflecting a slight chance of a death ridge in the long range, huh? HUH??

Death ridge?   

And lots of people are posting maps and requesting maps.   I tried to show all aspects of the ECMWF.   I think most people want to know the details.  But if you don't want to know then don't look at the maps.   

 

 

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The crazy train?

WRF is his favorite model 

[Perturbed Member]

48 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

Seems like the theme for the week. Outside of Monday with a bit more traditional set-up these marginal temp south wind events seem usually only good for conversational snow outside of Clark Co/Forest Grove/Gresham areas.

Agree. 

There is a small window of offshore flow combined with possible deformation ahead of the system on Monday but other than that it looks like S/SW wind marginal snow that won't get the job done for anything widespread or metro wide. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

8 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

Posters that have lost credibility recently: me 

I wouldn’t say you’ve lost credibility. I get what you were going for with the post, obviously some are really going to run with the anti-Government thing though, and it turns into a throwing out the baby with the bath water situation.

[fubario]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Death ridge?   

And lots of people are posting maps and requesting maps.   I tried to show all aspects of the ECMWF.   I think most people want to know the details.  But if you don't want to know then don't look at the maps.   

 

 

Oh, Tim. I'm having fun. I love ya, man. C'mon

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Agree. 

There is a small window of offshore flow combined with possible deformation ahead of the system on Monday but other than that it looks like S/SW wind marginal snow that won't get the job done for anything widespread or metro wide. 

Amazing how fast the flow turns to easterly on Sunday evening well into Monday.  As Jim has pointed out... SEA flips from a strong SW wind to below freezing with an east wind in a few hours that night.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, fubario said:

Oh, Tim. I'm having fun. I love ya, man. C'mon

I know.   

I am just giddy about that 90-degree death ridge coming up in mid March!  

[SnarkyGoblin]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Death ridge?   

And lots of people are posting maps and requesting maps.   I tried to show all aspects of the ECMWF.   I think most people want to know the details.  But if you don't want to know then don't look at the maps.   

 

 

I really do respect how well you respond when people go after you.  Bravo. 

I bet one of the the new users' first questions when they discover this place is "why do all these people hate on tt-sea so much?"

There should probably be a FAQ on here with the answer. Who is gonna write it?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

WRF is his favorite model 

That model is good when it's cold enough.  

[KingstonWX]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Death ridge?   

And lots of people are posting maps and requesting maps.   I tried to show all aspects of the ECMWF.   I think most people want to know the details.  But if you don't want to know then don't look at the maps.   

 

 

I demand a map showing 17" of snow for Kingston, and it must be in the short range, none of that phantom long range stuff. If you can't do that, well then, I think we're done here. 

[MillCreekMike]

1 minute ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

I really do respect how well you respond when people go after you.  Bravo. 

I bet one of the the new users' first questions when they discover this place is "why do all these people hate on tt-sea so much?"

There should probably be a FAQ on here with the answer. Who is gonna write it?

Definitely one of my first thoughts when I first joined here about nine years ago

[Gummy]

36 with a 24 dewpoint at my place currently

[Hawksfan2008]

25 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Might be a snowy drive home.

Yeah we took the SUV in anticipation but could be interesting! 

[Olive1010]

Here's Hillsboro oregon meteogram for model comparison of accumulated snowfall.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Yeah we took the SUV in anticipation but could be interesting! 

Good call.  

[Olive1010]

Here's Seattle's

[TT-SEA]

The EPS shows a little less snow than the 00Z run and its still absolutely crazy for the EPS.   

[joelgombiner]

2 minutes ago, Olive1010 said:

Here's Seattle's

Nice! Are these custom graphs that you made or are they available on a site somewhere? 

[Olive1010]

Oh yeah, here's the site: https://meteor.geol.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=kbfi&nam=on&nam_mos=on&namm=on&gfs_mos=on&gfs=on&gfsm_mos=on&gfsm=on&nws=on&rap=on&obs=on&nam4km=on&con=on&archive=on&year=2023&month=02&day=25&hour=05&ratio=11&max_t=on&cobb=on&compaction=on&mean_mt=on&max_mt=on&mean=on

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

The circled blue area is a snow hole and not enhanced snow, right? I can't tell my light blue from my light blue. 

Can anyone explain why? Trying to figure out how bad ny commute through there might be and how early I may need to wake up (or leave work).

[Snownerd3000]

35 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

Posters that have lost credibility recently: me 

You weren't wrong but maybe the wrong venue 

[Snowdome]

GREAT day on Mt Hood! 

[snow_wizard]

Ensemble means and operational models are in excellent agreement on anther very cold trough carving out over the NW early in week two.  We are on a roll!

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, Snowdome said:

GREAT day on Mt Hood! 

THANK YOU for breaking up the tension. Great pic!

[Requiem]

Fwiw there are a grand total of three or so people on this site that I think are a mixture of noncontributory and nonsensically belligerent and none of them are currently online

[SilverFallsAndrew]

49 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Most of the stations out here are in the upper 30s and low 40s.   Up to 40 now in North Bend.

I always feel like the stations in your area must be super over exposed. It’s always like 5-10F warmer than anywhere else north of Medford. Later this afternoon we ll be hearing about how you are approaching the mid 50s. 

Edited February 25 by SilverFallsAndrew

[snow_wizard]

12 minutes ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

The circled blue area is a snow hole and not enhanced snow, right? I can't tell my light blue from my light blue. 

Can anyone explain why? Trying to figure out how bad ny commute through there might be and how early I may need to wake up (or leave work).

That color scheme is kind of dumb.  It's a hole BTW...I think.

[joelgombiner]

Pretty unique 925 mb temp pattern right now, at least from my limited experience. SW winds only bring in slightly warmer air, still likely cold enough for snow. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Ensemble means and operational models are in excellent agreement on anther very cold trough carving out over the NW early in week two.  We are on a roll!

I feel like the models are just latching on to this. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, joelgombiner said:

Pretty unique 925 mb temp pattern right now, at least from my limited experience. SW winds only bring in slightly warmer air, still likely cold enough for snow. 

By late tomorrow morning we are under an extremely chilly upper level airmass again. Probably won’t get above 35 up here tomorrow. 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I always feel like the stations in your area must be super over exposed. It’s always like 5-10F warmer than anywhere else north of Medford. Later this afternoon we ll be hearing about how you are approaching the mid 50s. 

Nah... lots of low to mid 40s out here now.   Sunshine and a light east wind and late February sun angle.     Its real.   And it will be snowing here in a few hours.  

[Weiner Warrior]

18 minutes ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

The circled blue area is a snow hole and not enhanced snow, right? I can't tell my light blue from my light blue. 

Can anyone explain why? Trying to figure out how bad ny commute through there might be and how early I may need to wake up (or leave work).

That's Sammamish. Almost at sea level

[snow_wizard]

With tonight I'm still questioning how relatively dry the ECMWF is.  From my experience when the surface low is north of Hoquiam or so the Central Sound doesn't get that much drying effect, because there is no really significant east wind.  We'll just have to wait and see.