PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18 hours ago, Phil said:

I bet I know where we can find Tim weeks 3/4.  

Nome, Alaska?!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Tim can you post a total ECMWF snow map in inches please

[TacomaWx]

36 here, pretty confident we atleast see 40 today despite high clouds. Won’t matter since the DP is 23 and evaporative cooling is going to be doing its thing tonight. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hey are we just going to ignore the 12z GEFS?

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Hey are we just going to ignore the 12z GEFS?

No 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

36 here, pretty confident we atleast see 40 today despite high clouds. Won’t matter since the DP is 23 and evaporative cooling is going to be doing its thing tonight. 

Yep, if dew point stays that low the temp won't matter much. I've seen it snow hard at 40 degrees with a very low dewpoint. Temps will crash fast tonight. Might get back into the upper 20's in places under heavy bands. 

[TT-SEA]

Thursday system still looks a little too warm for lowland snow for the Seattle area.

[OysterPrintout]

6 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

This looks really good for Clark County and @BLI snowman who I think will be out of town...

Looks decent for the northern and western parts of Washington County too.

Seems like the theme for the week. Outside of Monday with a bit more traditional set-up these marginal temp south wind events seem usually only good for conversational snow outside of Clark Co/Forest Grove/Gresham areas.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Tim can you post a total ECMWF snow map in inches please

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

So many ECMWF snow maps I'm confused.  The cm ones really confused me lol  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Thursday system still looks a little too warm for lowland snow for the Seattle area.

Omg even more here. This is another Feb 2019 type pattern out here, just a little warmer and later.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Thursday system still looks a little too warm for lowland snow for the Seattle area.

Mostly to warm here it looks like, which dovetails nicely with the NWS forecast for 2000' snow levels that day. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

So many ECMWF snow maps I'm confused.  The cm ones really confused me lol  

Have to blame @bainbridgekid for that one.  

[TT-SEA]

There is post frontal snow to the north on Friday morning... this is exactly what the 00Z run showed as well.   Getting good consistency on the ECMWF overall with the Tuesday system being the wild card because it all comes to precise location of the surface low.  

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

 

I'm almost speechless.  It would be cool if we could pinpoint an area for a total. Is that possible? Looking at colors I would say about 15 or 16 here which is ubsurd and approaching record territory for this time of year.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

There is post frontal snow to the north on Friday morning... this is exactly what the 00Z run showed as well.   Getting good consistency on the ECMWF overall with the Tuesday system being the wild card because it all comes to precise location of the surface low.  

SCORE.

 

[TT-SEA]

High temps on Friday and that pesky SW wind is still going in the Seattle area.

[TT-SEA]

Snow depth on Friday evening... not a great deal for my area.   My area is very exposed to the SW wind.   Places that are protected from the SW wind will do much better at preserving snow cover this week.  

[ShawniganLake]

8 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Yep, if dew point stays that low the temp won't matter much. I've seen it snow hard at 40 degrees with a very low dewpoint. Temps will crash fast tonight. Might get back into the upper 20's in places under heavy bands. 

Lighter precip rates could hinder the evaporative cooling effect especially if things are getting mixed with any type of south wind. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Projecting SLE's temps the rest of the month they would end up with a -3.6 departure. They would also end up exactly 2F colder than this January. It would rank 17th coldest, which is pretty decent considering period of record is about 130 years. 

[OysterPrintout]

4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I'm almost speechless.  It would be cool if we could pinpoint an area for a total. Is that possible? Looking at colors I would say about 15 or 16 here which is ubsurd and approaching record territory for this time of year.

Pivotal lets you do that tho who knows with how much actual accuracy.

 

[bainbridgekid]

This is one of the most ridiculous Advisories I’ve ever seen. “Up to 10 inches” with no lower bound including cities like Covington? Just terrible communication coming out of the NWS right now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Snow depth on Friday evening... not a great deal for my area.   My area is very exposed to the SW wind.   Places that are protected from the SW wind will do much better at preserving snow cover this week.  

Hard to tell exactly, but looks like 12-15" here. 

[TT-SEA]

Up to 37 in North Bend and still sunny.  The southward progression of the clouds has stalled as the ECMWF showed.

[BurienSnowGlobe]

At ocean shores with the fam through midday tomorrow. What do you guys think our drive is looking like back to Seattle?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

Pivotal lets you do that tho who knows with how much actual accuracy.

 

The only downside is their Kuchera maps are not as generous as WB. LOL

[MWG]

Looking back at all this memories seems like almost all our snow are in February.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

This is one of the most ridiculous Advisories I’ve ever seen. “Up to 10 inches” with no lower bound including cities like Covington? Just terrible communication coming out of the NWS right now.

I totally agree and the same thing earlier today.   It's ridiculous to pick one spot near Gold Bar that could get 10 inches and just blanket say the entire EPSL could get 10 inches.   Hurts their credibility when most of the EPSL has bare ground tomorrow afternoon. 

[AlTahoe]

storm total 21" another 30-55" forecast this week. can you find the black lab in the photo?

[KingstonWX]

3 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

This is one of the most ridiculous Advisories I’ve ever seen. “Up to 10 inches” with no lower bound including cities like Covington? Just terrible communication coming out of the NWS right now.

WTF LOL... and it's not even a WSW, just a WWA. For up to 10". Someone make it make sense. 

[Requiem]

I think my area could do alright this week with a couple periods of snowfall. What an awesome pattern to get one of our latest and greatest snowstorms followed up by some prime powder and foothill show.

[Weiner Warrior]

I only look at 10:1 maps. Makes me feel better.

[Cold Snap]

30 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Another run showing a roaring SW wind in Seattle on Tuesday afternoon with a really strong c-zone along the King/Snohomish line.  

Nice to see it’s been showing a decent CZ over MBY for a few runs now. Would be nice to score some more after the main event!

[IMoveALot_Weather]

I'm gonna be in the Hood River area the week after next. Gimme something.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Quite a few record lows in W. Oregon this morning. Looks like some records from last year were broken. 

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OREGON
1034 AM PST SAT FEB 25 2023

...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES SET SATURDAY MORNING, FEB 25...


LOCATION          LOW TEMPERATURE (F)       PREVIOUS RECORD/YEAR
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Hillsboro, OR             16                      19 / 2022
Vancouver, WA             17                      20 / 1993
Portland, OR              18                      23 / 1969
Eugene, OR                20                      23 / 2022


Close, but not quite there...
Astoria, OR               23                      22/1890

Yesterday:

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OREGON
452 AM PST SAT FEB 25 2023

...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES SET FRIDAY...


LOCATION          LOW TEMPERATURE (F)       PREVIOUS RECORD/YEAR
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Hillsboro, OR             16                      24 / 1967
Vancouver, WA             18                      22 / 1922
Portland, OR              25 (TIE)                25 / 1969

Pendleton Area yesterday:

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON, OR
430 PM PST FRI FEB 24 2023

...MULTIPLE NEW DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES TODAY...

...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT YAKIMA WA...

A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 8 WAS SET AT YAKIMA WA TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 9 SET IN 1993.

...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT WALLA WALLA WA...

A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 9 WAS SET AT WALLA WALLA WA TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 11 SET IN 1962.

...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT PASCO WA...

A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 10 WAS SET AT PASCO WA TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 12 SET IN 1962.

...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT HERMISTON OR...

A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 5 WAS SET AT HERMISTON OR TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 11 SET IN 2003.

...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT PENDLETON OR...

A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 2 WAS SET AT PENDLETON OR TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 10 SET IN 1993.

...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT ELLENSBURG WA...

A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 5 WAS SET AT ELLENSBURG WA TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 8 SET IN 2011.

Seattle Yesterday:

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE
0129 AM PST SAT FEB 25 2023

...SEVERAL RECORD LOW FEBRUARY 24 TEMPERATURES SET ACROSS WESTERN 
WASHINGTON...

RECORD LOW FEBRUARY 24 TEMPERATURES WERE SET TODAY AT BELLINGHAM, 
SEATTLE-TACOMA AIRPORT, WFO SEATTLE, AND QUILLAYUTE.

LOCATION                  FEB 24 2023      PREV. RECORD / YEAR
                          LOW TEMPERATURE         
-----------------------------------------------------------------
BELLINGHAM AIRPORT           20 (T)           20  /  2011
SEATTLE-TACOMA AIRPORT       22               24  /  2011
WFO SEATTLE                  25               26  /  1917 
QUILLAYUTE AIRPORT           24 (T)           24  /  1993

Spokane yesterday:

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
515 PM PST FRI FEB 24 2023

...RECORD MORNING COLD LOW TEMPERATURES SET FOR FEBRUARY 24...

LOCATION                    NEW RECORD  OLD RECORD  YEAR
SPOKANE WA AIRPORT               3 (TIED)    3      2011
WENATCHEE WA PANGBORN FIELD     12          13      1993

[Hawksfan2008]

Nice uptick from the EURO for the Tuesday system. Gonna be a fun one! 

[Cold Snap]

20 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

 

Honestly starting to get kind of excited the fact that the Euro has shown pepto for me for multiple runs now.

[ShawniganLake]

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Snow depth on Friday evening... not a great deal for my area.   My area is very exposed to the SW wind.   Places that are protected from the SW wind will do much better at preserving snow cover this week.  

Looks like a steady diet of 1-4” snowfall potential here this week.  Should be fun watching it fall.  I sort of like these numerous smaller events.  

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Nice uptick from the EURO for the Tuesday system. Gonna be a fun one! 

Are you on your way back from Hawaii yet?

[SouthHillFrosty]

Nice

[Hawksfan2008]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Are you on your way back from Hawaii yet?

Land around 11pm tonight! 

[Kolk1604]

4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Nice

If only we can trust it. Looks like the south sound is more snowy 

[TacomaWx]

5 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Nice

Going to have a tough time getting more than 3-5” near the Puget banana belt tonight-Wednesday. You’ll probably do a bit better than me. I’m guessing at the end of it we get 3-4” total IMBY over the next few days.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Up to 37 in North Bend and still sunny.  The southward progression of the clouds has stalled as the ECMWF showed.

Just 32 here. 

[MWG]

Currently 42F and sunny! Enjoying this sun before the rain comes in. 

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Land around 11pm tonight! 

Might be a snowy drive home.

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Just 32 here. 

Most of the stations out here are in the upper 30s and low 40s.   Up to 40 now in North Bend.

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

It doesn't even matter if it was 55 degrees today... road surfaces cool down very quickly when precip and cold air arrives.   If the temp/dewpoint support it then snow will stick to roads no matter what the temperatures were beforehand.  

wetbulb is the key, yep

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Most of the stations out here are in the upper 30s and low 40s.   Up to 40 now in North Bend.

Still just 36 at seatac