PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, westcoastexpat said:

Hmmm not sure about that? Latest Euro spitting out an inch or two of slop - and that's assuming every wet flake mixed with rain sticks to the ground.

Not what I'm seeing.

[ShawniganLake]

The snow tonight put my winter total over 40”.  Still a ways to go before I’d consider it a big winter, though. 

[GHweatherChris]

Up to 1" now, snow intensity picking up.

[snow_wizard]

For the record the ECMWF shows it easily being cold enough for snow Monday night.  I think 30 is cold enough...right?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

21 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Photos?

[smerfylicious]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

For the record the ECMWF shows it easily being cold enough for snow Monday night.  I think 30 is cold enough...right?

Watch out or it'll be 2kold2snow

[PuyallupChris]

After 46 degrees at 5 PM, it’s now 35. App says it’s snowing, but no flakes actually falling yet. This happened last event too, where it was said to be “snowing” for a solid several hours before any made it onto rooftops. 
 

Still, evaporative cooling is hard at work!

[snow_wizard]

Monday night and Tuesday snow!

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

For the record the ECMWF shows it easily being cold enough for snow Monday night.  I think 30 is cold enough...right?

I think Monday evening through Tuesday morning is going to be fine for snow in terms of temps.   

[Perturbed Member]

Starting to come down in the coast range

[westcoastexpat]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Not what I'm seeing.

Here is the hourly Euro output for Seattle (Monday PM into Tuesday AM), if this helps:

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I post this with some hesitancy because a few certain people might jump all over me for posting any map with lighter snow.  I got in big trouble earlier today having some fun with your "so we are just to ignore" thing.  

I don't think this period ever had much heavy snow except the runs which showed that deformation band. 

[Cold Snap]

FWIW Wunderground keeps upping my totals for Monday and Tuesday. Showing me getting 2 inches both of those days now.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Monday night and Tuesday snow!

I would go with Kuchera for that period... it will be a wet snow.  

[westcoastexpat]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

I would go with Kuchera for that period... it will be a wet snow.  

Yes good point - it will be wet. 10:1 ratio will give misleadingly high totals. 5:1 much more realistic given the temperature profile.

[smerfylicious]

Precip line in the north gettin' real close to Randy

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I would go with Kuchera for that period... it will be a wet snow.  

I'm a bit confused though, because the surface obs say it will be 30 in this area for much of that.  At any rate the next run will be different anyway.

[Requiem]

20 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Total snow for Monday night and Tuesday (through 4 p.m.)... a little less for Seattle than the 12Z run but better to the north.    This is the same general theme as the GEM.

Not bad!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Red Bluff, CA yesterday. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Here’s a photo from Squamish, where it’s been dumpity dump dump dumping. Nearly a foot already there!

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm a bit confused though, because the surface obs say it will be 30 in this area for much of that.  At any rate the next run will be different anyway.

If you look at the precip loop... its dry when it drops to 30.   Maybe it clears out briefly?  The main precip band comes through between 4-7 a.m. and it shows 34 at 4 a.m.   

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

If you look at the precip loop... its dry when it drops to 30.   Maybe it clears out briefly?  The main precip band comes through between 4-7 a.m. and it shows 34 at 4 a.m.   

It shows a lot of snow falling fairly early Monday night though.

[Randyc321]

Light, very light snow falling here on Bainbridge now.  

[TT-SEA]

Saturday looks much more interesting on this ECMWF run.   Precip is much farther east... but its during the day so temps are more challenging.  

[snow_wizard]

I guess it's kind of ridiculous to be splitting hairs aver an event a couple of days out when we have snow tonight.  I feel good about the Monday night / Tuesday prospects though.

[lowlandsnow]

NWS issued a winter storm warning for Whatcom county 

Winter Weather Advisory for Western Whatcom county upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning. Locations away from the water...Lynden, Sumas Ferndale now forecast to get 3 to 6 inches of snow tonight into Sunday morning

[snow_wizard]

Just now, lowlandsnow said:

NWS issued a winter storm warning for Whatcom county 

Winter Weather Advisory for Western Whatcom county upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning. Locations away from the water...Lynden, Sumas Ferndale now forecast to get 3 to 6 inches of snow tonight into Sunday morning

Another great Whatcom County winter for sure.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It shows a lot of snow falling fairly early Monday night though.

You are right... there is an initial band between 4-7 p.m. that evening.    I was wondering earlier if that might be convective.   Its in the mid 40s on Monday afternoon and then temps drop to mid 30s that evening with that precip.     Don't think that would be 10:1 snow.

[SnowWillarrive]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I guess it's kind of ridiculous to be splitting hairs aver an event a couple of days out when we have snow tonight.  I feel good about the Monday night / Tuesday prospects though.

I feel much better about Monday night once I see what tonight brings. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Saturday looks much more interesting on this ECMWF run.   Precip is much farther east... but its during the day so temps are more challenging.  

Saturday trended better on the GFS too. 

Looking at the ensembles it isn't a mystery as to why. 

[SnarkyGoblin]

Snowing at a decent clip in north Seattle 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I guess it's kind of ridiculous to be splitting hairs aver an event a couple of days out when we have snow tonight.  I feel good about the Monday night / Tuesday prospects though.

Monday night and Tuesday are much more challenging for the models because it comes down to the track of a surface low.   Tonight is a much easier scenario for the models.   I think that system has the best potential this week for sure... but you are right that the details just can't be known yet.  

[westcoastexpat]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm a bit confused though, because the surface obs say it will be 30 in this area for much of that.  At any rate the next run will be different anyway.

Always remember to look aloft! - 925 mb height temps are above freezing on the Euro.

Can see a fairly definitive warm nose aloft that would "slopify" the snowflakes as they move through that layer.

 

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

You are right... there is an initial band between 4-7 p.m. that evening.    I was wondering earlier if that might be convective.   Its in the mid 40s on Monday afternoon and then temps drop to mid 30s that evening with that precip.     Don't think that would be 10:1 snow.

Sounds like a layer of slushy mush, then a freeze, then some mode slush just in time for the morning commute? Won't take much accumulation to make a mess on the roads if that's the case. Dense slop is awful for driving.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

Snowing at a decent clip in north Seattle 

Very good news!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

NWS issued a winter storm warning for Whatcom county 

Winter Weather Advisory for Western Whatcom county upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning. Locations away from the water...Lynden, Sumas Ferndale now forecast to get 3 to 6 inches of snow tonight into Sunday morning

¡Qué una sorpresa!

[snowbustcity]

Starting to see some very light flake action in NE Seattle. Wind has picked up considerably. 
 

edit: snow coming down a lot harder than initially realized, just very fine. 

[Chewbacca Defense]

2 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

NWS issued a winter storm warning for Whatcom county 

Winter Weather Advisory for Western Whatcom county upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning. Locations away from the water...Lynden, Sumas Ferndale now forecast to get 3 to 6 inches of snow tonight into Sunday morning

The NWS is such a hot mess....I got the alert about 10-20 minutes ago, pulled it up and said it was for the foot hills, Mt. Baker Ski area, etc.  Now I when I check, it aligns with what you posted...not  the first time this has happened this winter...

[Cascadia_Wx]

24 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We shall see.  Maybe this will be a long overdue dry spring.  I know I'll skewered for saying that though.

Hell yeah you will. We literally just had our driest spring in recorded history two years ago. Last year was cold and wet but it was our first such spring in 10 years. Spring 2019 and 2020 were also incredibly dry.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, westcoastexpat said:

Always remember to look aloft! - 925 mb height temps are above freezing on the Euro.

Can see a fairly definitive warm nose aloft that would "slopify" the snowflakes as they move through that layer.

 

It drops quickly though.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Temp has rose all the way up to 40.1 and not one drop of precip yet 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Saturday trended better on the GFS too. 

Looking at the ensembles it isn't a mystery as to why. 

All of next weekend is much wetter on the ECMWF compared to its 12Z run.    The trough is much less suppressed on the 00Z run.  

[seattleweatherguy]

No snow but strong gusts of winds..

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Hell yeah you will. We literally just had our driest spring in recorded history two years ago. Last year was cold and wet but it was our first such spring in 10 years. Spring 2019 and 2020 were also incredibly dry.

I guess spring is when I have no tolerance for gloom.  By far my least favorite season here.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Temp has rose all the way up to 40.1 and not one drop of precip yet 

Been a slow but steady drop here all evening.  Right at 36 now.

[thisisacreativename]

Temps and dew point beginning to drop here as well.

[MossMan]

Snowing! 

[TacomaWx]

40 here…lot of small flakes. Locations to the north and west are cooling off under heavier precip. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

I guess spring is when I have no tolerance for gloom.  By far my least favorite season here.

That doesn’t mean we’re well overdue for a dry spring. It’s factually incorrect.

[SnowySeeker50]

Back up to 39. Does not want to drop yet and no snowflakes seen.