PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

I expect squat up here tomorrow night.  This is just not my year.

I see what you are doing.

[SnowySeeker50]

Skunked. Besides maybe a few snowflakes for a couple minutes around 1 am, all I got is just rain. Onto the next one tomorrow night

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS is farther north on Tuesday than previous runs and pretty crazy for the Seattle area.

[snowbustcity]

It’s now raining a good amount in NE Seattle, quickly washing out our 3/4” of snow. 

[TacomaWx]

3 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

I expect squat up here tomorrow night.  This is just not my year.

Gfs spitting out a ridiculous 6.5” on the kuchera maps this morning here…about 2-3” up there. We will see the gem and euro haven’t been that crazy yet. 

[MossMan]

Topped out at an inch (I was in the grey, the stupid Euro was right) total is down a bit since 4:30am as we have some meltage. But I did add to my deck snowbank before it melted more off the deck. 

Currently 33.3 degrees. The lowest it got was 32.5. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS is farther north on Tuesday than previous runs and pretty crazy for the Seattle area.

Sure hope not. I would sure like to score for once. In other news radar has filled back and its dumping again. 

 

Edited February 26 by SilverFallsAndrew

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GEM looks way north too. The rich get richer.

[WildrootParable]

It snowed here steadily all night, it seems. Haven't measured officially, but just eyeballing it we got between 3 and 4 inches. I can hear dripping and it definitely looks heavy on the trees, so not sure how long it'll stick around. Looks nice right now, though!

[TacomaWx]

Some pretty crazy model runs for this morning so far…anywhere from 1-6”. Feeling pretty confident about atleast 1” tomorrow night…but there’s definitely higher potential for something big to happen compared to last night.,

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Insane snowfall gradients being reported up this way, from over a foot in some hill areas to only a trace in some beachside communities.

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

GEM looks way north too. The rich get richer.

 

Whiskey tango November!

[MossMan]

Just had a quick snow shower so it’s good to see the atmosphere is still supporting solid stuff! 

[TT-SEA]

12Z GEM for the Tuesday system... the action starts in the Seattle area around 5 a.m. Tuesday so this covers the event.  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Squamish this morning.

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GEM for the Tuesday system... the action starts in the Seattle area around 5 a.m. Tuesday so this covers the event.  

Gem has been pretty stingy on precip compared to the other models. Atleast here it underdid the precip. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Sun coming out and the melt is kicking into high gear.

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GEM for the Tuesday system... the action starts in the Seattle area around 5 a.m. Tuesday so this covers the event.  

Man my area has sure been moisture starved when it comes to snowfall compared to what I typically get…Wrong trajectory with these systems. 

[Phishy Wx]

meh

dandruff snow, SW wind.  about a 1/4" so far.

 

Tuesday event looks more like something significant, at least on this side

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Gem has been pretty stingy on precip compared to the other models. Atleast here it underdid the precip. 

Oddly enough it has been opposite here.   A couple days ago it was showing about foot of snow here last night but the precip totals went down each run leading up to the event.    Might be a terrain issue out here.  

[Chewbacca Defense]

Nothing to write home about here.  Stayed at 34 all night, and went back and forth between wet snow and rain.  The deck is clear, the ground is covered with slush.

[flya00]

We got about a foot of snow and it’s still falling. Time to go clean the car.

[Winterdog]

The GFS is just an awful model for snow totals.  I actually started to think the more it showed the better chance for snow.  Not true.  That model's output for snowfall is not much better than a random generator.  34 after a low of 32.7

[Roman-Dallas Snow-Zone]

Went for a morning drive few miles west of town into the hills. Pretty amazing to see the transition zone. Nothing at my house at 400' but once I hit 550-600 snow was lightly dusting the ground then once at 800' it was complete white out and few inches at least. Really shows how marginal these events can be and the difference of just a few degrees, elevation, time of day and precipitation intensity makes all the difference. 

People who are not weather nerds need to learn this lol. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Roman-Dallas Snow-Zone said:

 

Went for a morning drive few miles west of town into the hills. Pretty amazing to see the transition zone. Nothing at my house at 400' but once I hit 550-600 snow was lightly dusting the ground then once at 800' it was complete white out and few inches at least. Really shows how marginal these events can be and the difference of just a few degrees, elevation, time of day and precipitation intensity makes all the difference. 

People who are not weather nerds need to learn this lol.  

IMG_8634.HEIC 939.13 kB · 0 downloads IMG_8635.HEIC 1.15 MB · 0 downloads

Can't open videos.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

The GFS is just an awful model for snow totals.  I actually started to think the more it showed the better chance for snow.  Not true.  That model's output for snowfall is not much better than a random generator.  34 after a low of 32.7

It is often the first model to pick up on an impending arctic outflow event, and it is useful to back up the Euro (a modelled outcome with a Euro/GFS consensus being much more likely to verify than one where the Euro stands alone), but as a general-purpose forecasting tool its accuracy often leaves a lot to be desired. I would never get psyched about a snow event that the GFS alone was calling for.

[Roman-Dallas Snow-Zone]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Can't open videos.

yeah sorry couldn't get it to work so had to delete it

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, Roman-Dallas Snow-Zone said:

Went for a morning drive few miles west of town into the hills. Pretty amazing to see the transition zone. Nothing at my house at 400' but once I hit 550-600 snow was lightly dusting the ground then once at 800' it was complete white out and few inches at least. Really shows how marginal these events can be and the difference of just a few degrees, elevation, time of day and precipitation intensity makes all the difference. 

People who are not weather nerds need to learn this lol. 

There was an insane steep gradient in the first 100 m of elevation here, from a slushy inch on the beaches to over a foot in the higher hills. Living near a ridge top really helped me score last night.

[BlvuSumit]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Wow... that is amazing.    You have more in Bellevue than I do out here.   And it looks like you aren't getting this roaring SW wind we have out here because you have snow on the trees still.    What is your elevation there?

I’m up at 1170’ top of hill just NW of cougar mountain. Was pretty brisk SW wind last nite

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Breakfast! 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, Roman-Dallas Snow-Zone said:

yeah sorry couldn't get it to work so had to delete it

You posted a .HEIC file, which most systems (and most servers) do not understand. Must convert to .MOV. Photos app can do this.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Roman-Dallas Snow-Zone said:

yeah sorry couldn't get it to work so had to delete it

Darn... wanted to see them!  

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Breakfast! 

Seems like a sheep, a dog and several ducks would be pretty filling Andrew.

[WildrootParable]

Already melting, but got a decent photo or two...

 

[BlvuSumit]

Can see snow down to Lake WA shore towards SeaTac.

Liking the 12z GFS output haha

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Looks like the south wind broke through here. Slushy rain snow mix at the moment and 36 degrees. Scored a little over an inch overnight but it’s in the process of melting now. Feel very satisfied with what we had still.

[MossMan]

It’s trying at the very end, Tim! And my gravel must have been colder than my concrete pad. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, BlvuSumit said:

Can see snow down to Lake WA shore towards SeaTac.

Liking the 12z GFS output haha

 

I love that area up there.  You must be very close the Newcastle golf course.    The views up there on a clear day are truly stunning!  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I love that area up there.  You must be very close the Newcastle golf course.    The views up there on a clear day are truly stunning!  

Definitely the place to live if you want to score significantly more snow but not live a long ways out from Downtown Seattle or Downtown Bellevue.

[TT-SEA]

Some clearing moving in from the west... pretty sharp back edge to the clouds.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Weekend trough looks improved. 

[T-Town]

55 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Only a dusting fell by 1:30am? That’s crazy we probably had 3/4 to almost 1” here by that time. We didn’t get much accumulation after about 2:30-3:00am roughly. I believe the gfs and euro run’s yesterday afternoon had us at 1.2-1.4” so it was very close to being accurate atleast here. Haven’t been down to the waterfront but I’d guess they had less than half what I got. 

I’m pretty exposed to the sw wind here so maybe that made a difference.
 

Current state shown below. 

[SnowWillarrive]

17 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

There was an insane steep gradient in the first 100 m of elevation here, from a slushy inch on the beaches to over a foot in the higher hills. Living near a ridge top really helped me score last night.

Are you a dual citizen?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Blue sky and snow is a winning combination even when there is a melt-a-thon underway.

[T-Town]

Olympics looking snowy. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, SnowWillarrive said:

Are you a dual citizen?

Nope, just here on a work permit, hoping to get permanent residency.

[BlvuSumit]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I love that area up there.  You must be very close the Newcastle golf course.    The views up there on a clear day are truly stunning!  

Man if you like weather… wind events outrageous up here because unobstructed exposure and you can see it coming as the transformer flashes work their way up the puget lowlands. And of course elevation nice for the snow events. And during inversions you’re above the socked in fog. 
down below is the golf course (see open snowy are in foto). But man is the wear and tear on home is brutal!

[TT-SEA]

12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Weekend trough looks improved. 

12Z GFS shows lots of Hood Canal snow over the weekend... but a little too warm elsewhere.    

[Hawksfan2008]

I selfishly wish the NWS would go into more detail sometimes given how few exciting events we get. Someone is going to get smacked on Tuesday but no mention of the impact of different low placements/deformation band. Going with 1-3 inches for many. 

[AlTahoe]

35 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

The GFS is just an awful model for snow totals.  I actually started to think the more it showed the better chance for snow.  Not true.  That model's output for snowfall is not much better than a random generator.  34 after a low of 32.7

It's a resolution issue. If your a low elevation location next to mountains it has zero chance of verification in marginal temp scenario's. Gfs last week was showing 150-200" for donner summit in the 15 day and it looks like it will verify after this next blizzard finishes. It had 60-90" for my house and it is going to verify as well. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, AlTahoe said:

It's a resolution issue. If your a low elevation location next to mountains it has zero chance of verification in marginal temp scenario's. Gfs last week was showing 150-200" for donner summit in the 15 day and it looks like it will verify after this next blizzard finishes. It had 60-90" for my house and it is going to verify as well. 

That is the issue in my area... too close to the mountains the only way I know the GFS is seriously showing snow for my area is when it shows snow in the Seattle area.   Verbatim... I would probably have like 500 inches of snow this winter per the GFS.