PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Looking like Tuesday and Wednesday might be sub 40 highs. Looks like DPs stay below freezing so the snow shouldn’t melt in the shaded areas for a couple days. 

I'm really excited about this one.  Legit cold air sweeps in on Tuesday and then a hard freeze Tuesday night after the snow.

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, flya00 said:

Oh yeah, Lake Country. I’m going there tomorrow, thats where I go to college. The photos I took were in Chilliwack though 

Ahhh... impressive snow total there.  

[SnowWillarrive]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

How much snow did you manage last night?

Probably .5 or so. 

[TacomaWx]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

I'm really excited about this one.  Legit cold air sweeps in on Tuesday and then a hard freeze Tuesday night after the snow.

Will be a wintry scene on the morning of the 1st. 

[MossMan]

Noticed my snow stopped melting in the shade areas, looked at the DP and it has dropped to 30! 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

11 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

You get some pretty juicy upslope events there when the Fraser river outflow is cranking.  Pretty good fetch between there and the coastline around Vancouver 

2019 was an amazing upslope event! 34” the first snowfall with 58” total over a 8 day span. I had snow on the ground until mid April

[SouthHillFrosty]

 

 

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, PA Foothiller said:

2019 was an amazing upslope event! 34” the first snowfall with 58” total over a 8 day span. I had snow on the ground until mid April

34in? Holy cow. I can’t even imagine. That is Insane

[Phishy Wx]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

 

 

ohhhhh an AR with cold in place??  could it be?  bring it

[Snownerd3000]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

 

 

Dont hate that!

[MV_snow]

I would give this winter a B+ so far for this area assuming the Tuesday event comes through with 1-3” as expected and we don’t have an epic March. The only thing missing was a big ticket snow event, but we had lots of minor snow events, plus one unforgettably cold day in late Dec with highs in the low 20s and strong winds.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Dont hate that!

At this point another strong punch of cold air next week looks a pretty strong possibility thanks to the MJO wave.  The only bad thing is this could trigger a WWB which might trigger a Nino.  Still a chance we only go to neutral ENSO though.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, MV_snow said:

I would give this winter a B+ so far for this area assuming the Tuesday event comes through with 1-3” as expected and we don’t have an epic March. The only thing missing was a big ticket snow event, but we had lots of minor snow events, plus one unforgettably cold day in late Dec with highs in the low 20s and strong winds.

This winter gets decent grades for cold.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

This winter gets decent grades for cold.

Decent for cold and exceptional for snow. A+ here.

[Snownerd3000]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

At this point another strong punch of cold air next week looks a pretty strong possibility thanks to the MJO wave.  The only bad thing is this could trigger a WWB which might trigger a Nino.  Still a chance we only go to neutral ENSO though.

I'm hoping for a neutral winter next year. Would be awesome. Hate Nino's.

[Ray]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

This winter gets decent grades for cold.

I agree the cold was good but I am at a C- due to getting skunked time after time with the snow.

[Cold Snap]

Melt-a-thon has been happening now but very slowly since there is no wind IMBY but still have probably 1/4-1/2” on grassy surfaces. Honestly not that bummed this didn’t work out since there’s a chance for something big tomorrow night and in the end it was still a nice event with 3/4” of snow.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, Snownerd3000 said:

I'm hoping for a neutral winter next year. Would be awesome. Hate Nino's.

It is what it is. Niño’s happen. At this stage, we are sort of due for one.

[Weiner Warrior]

NAM like the idea of a CZ later

[Cold Snap]

1 hour ago, Gummy said:

Looks like Seatac recorded 2.0 inches of snow last night, with 0.28 inches of precip.

It was at 32 degrees and snowing from 12:35 AM to 4:25 AM.

 

It’s rare that SEA gets more snow than I do and even more rare when it’s an event that is widespread. Just goes to show how weird this setup really was.

[Phishy Wx]

Nino's can be good, I mean in the inverse CA is currently scoring big time in a Nina when its statistically dry there in Ninas.  Maybe we'll get a modoki or something hybrid ish/neutral

[snow_wizard]

This has high potential to yield a quite cold outcome.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, Ray said:

I agree the cold was good but I am at a C- due to getting skunked time after time with the snow.

I'm sure you have gotten snow there.  My total is getting near 10 inches and I'm pretty close to there.

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm sure you have gotten snow there.  My total is getting near 10 inches and I'm pretty close to there.

7.6” here so far this winter as of this morning. 

[Cold Snap]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This has high potential to yield a quite cold outcome.

Ridge bridge!

[joelgombiner]

4 minutes ago, Weiner Warrior said:

NAM like the idea of a CZ later

Makes sense. Strong westerly flow and unstable air offshore. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty big event ongoing. Up to 5.7” now with moisture once again increasing. Temps are marginal around 32-33. 

[Cold Snap]

6 minutes ago, Weiner Warrior said:

NAM like the idea of a CZ later

It does look like a CZ is starting to form right in that area on the radar.

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, Weiner Warrior said:

NAM like the idea of a CZ later

ECMWF shows the same thing... that is also when the SW wind gusts peak out here in my area.   ECMWF is showing gusts to around 40 mph for 3 or 4 hours this afternoon out here.  

[T-Town]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

7.6” here so far this winter as of this morning. 

It’s been fun having all the chances but would be nice to get a good dump of four or five or inches before it’s all said and done. I know I’m getting greedy because the last few years have been so good, but hey…

[TacomaWx]

We might manage some spotty snow tonight outside of the c-zone…but probably not much. So far most of the sound is being shadowed hard with WNW flow. 

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

1 hour ago, Gummy said:

Looks like Seatac recorded 2.0 inches of snow last night, with 0.28 inches of precip.

It was at 32 degrees and snowing from 12:35 AM to 4:25 AM.

 

If my math is right that's around a 7:1 ratio. So almost split the difference between those calling for a 5:1 ratio and those saying it would be closer to 10:1. Not too shabby for Feb 26.

[SnowWillarrive]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm sure you have gotten snow there.  My total is getting near 10 inches and I'm pretty close to there.

If we can pull off all the right cards tomorrow night this winter can possibly go to an A-

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, T-Town said:

It’s been fun having all the chances but would be nice to get a good dump of four or five or inches before it’s all said and done. I know I’m getting greedy because the last few years have been so good, but hey…

We’re up to 72.9” of snow since December 2016 as of this morning. An average of 10.4” per winter the last 7 years. We will bump that average up a little bit too soon. Going to suck when our luck runs out inevitably. 

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

52 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The worm has really turned this winter.  We'll see if it holds.

Sure hoping it does because they need to replenish the aquifers in the central valley and the reservoirs being full and a great mountain snowpack aren't going to do that in just one year. 

Wpuld love to see the Colorado River reservoirs get in on that action too, but that's a very tall order.

[TT-SEA]

35 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

 

 

The 12Z EPS is pretty emphatic about the block lifting away later in the run... seems like this would lead to a wet pattern.

[Cold Snap]

18z NAM showing a band of snow moving through central puget sound tonight.

EDIT: The 3km shows a nice one for Portland as well!

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

18z NAM showing a band of snow moving through central puget sound tonight.

ECMWF shows something similar.

[TacomaWx]

Been paying attention to tomorrow night but hadn’t really focused on tonight much. It’s not as much of a slam dunk but we could get 1/2” or so. Just very scattered so hard to pin down. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Been paying attention to tomorrow night but hadn’t really focused on tonight much. It’s not as much of a slam dunk but we could get 1/2” or so. Just very scattered so hard to pin down. 

Yea it’s jumping around. Significant pull back on the 18z for us 

[ShawniganLake]

32 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

I'm hoping for a neutral winter next year. Would be awesome. Hate Nino's.

Weak Ninos can be okay.  

[HuskyMaestro]

9 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

18z NAM showing a band of snow moving through central puget sound tonight.

EDIT: The 3km shows a nice one for Portland as well!

After just getting a rain/snow mix last night, this would be cool for my area. It was just too warm somehow.

Didn’t mind getting no snow accumulation at all last night as long as Tuesday’s system does decent

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Insanely heavy snow now. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Yea it’s jumping around. Significant pull back on the 18z for us 

8-10” here. Dang 

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Insanely heavy snow now. 

Praise the lord almighty what a blessing! 

[thickhog]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

8-10” here. Dang 

Sell me some of your property please

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Insanely heavy snow now. 

IMG_2160.MOV

Holy crap!    

[SnowWillarrive]

7 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Been paying attention to tomorrow night but hadn’t really focused on tonight much. It’s not as much of a slam dunk but we could get 1/2” or so. Just very scattered so hard to pin down. 

About two weeks ago when the Euro was only showing .5 inches here I ended up with 3 inches. Maybe tonight can over perform! 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

2 hours ago, MossMan said:

Getting quite breezy and the sun is popping out. 36 degrees. 

IMG_2937.MOV

Similar here, that bit of snow we had last night has held on better than expected. Wish we could get this sort of pattern after a better transition event. Looks like some convective showers on the way.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, SnowWillarrive said:

About two weeks ago when the Euro was only showing .5 inches here I ended up with 3 inches. Maybe tonight can over perform! 

Could be good for king and pierce county…we will see what radar looks like in a few hours. It’s pretty cool how we’re basically maximizing potential snowfall with these systems like the one last night and the next couple nights coming up. Heaviest precip set up just at the right time last night and will the next 2 nights. Lot of times we aren’t as fortunate.