PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

A couple chances for 1-2 inches for sure it looks like.

I agree.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The Sunday system is a pretty straightforward snow maker up here. Not usually something that produces snow below 500-1000’, I would be surprised if Salem had accumulating snow, but who knows the worm has turned. 

The worm is on a acid trip and getting crazy!

[snow_wizard]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The Sunday system is a pretty straightforward snow maker up here. Not usually something that produces snow below 500-1000’, I would be surprised if Salem had accumulating snow, but who knows the worm has turned. 

We have a pretty exceptional cold air mass in place though.  At least up here the dp's are exceptionally low as well.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I did 32/24 today.  I think 2011 had more of a northerly component which favors your area for colder max temps.  This one is a bit more of an easterly component which favors my area for cold max temps.  That one also had snow cover to help with the temps.

I did a 30/23. The heavy snow and 23 degrees was a treat, ended up with 4.7 inches of top grade powder.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

New ECMWF weeklies... maybe a return to something a little closer to normal eventually?    Maybe the cold is not just entirely focused in the west?

Another year where winter peaks at the spring equinox here? Knock me over with a feather.

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

The 12z ECMWF and 12z EPS were both showing another pretty legit cold airmass around day 10 with 850s falling to -8 or so.  We are in a groove!

Hopefully this will end up being one of the best late season weather for the ages. Probably already so for PDX with that insane stuff yesterday and more is on the way!

[snow_wizard]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I did a 30/23. The heavy snow and 23 degrees was a treat, ended up with 4.7 inches of top grade powder.

That upsloping along the east slopes of the Olympics worked wonders last night.  Sounds almost continental.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

5 below at sherman pass! 1 above at my cabin.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

That upsloping along the east slopes of the Olympics worked wonders last night.  Sounds almost continental.

Yep, just 10 miles east at work only 1.5 inches. 

[snow_wizard]

I am very thrilled there is no drippy gloom anywhere in sight right now.  Great pattern!

[Cloud]

Fwiw, the OR snowstorm yesterday was worthy of a named winter storm (do they still do those?) but I’m seeing very little national media coverage. If this was in the NE, they’d be all over it. Sadge 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I am very thrilled there is no drippy gloom anywhere in sight right now.  Great pattern!

Probably just sets us up for that to be the main theme from April - June.  

[Front Ranger]

12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I wasn't able to pull off a freezing max in 2011 even with snow on the ground.  This airmass is actually colder...at least at the low levels.

Depends on where you're talking. SEA had a 31/20 and OLM had a ridiculous 31/5 and 30/8 in 2011. I believe both spots had decent snow cover, though.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Fwiw, the OR snowstorm yesterday was worthy of a named winter storm (do they still do those?) but I’m seeing very little national media coverage. If this was in the NE, they’d be all over it. Sadge 

Yup.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Hey, anybody got any snow maps I can send the lead nws for PDX? I deleted all of mine already.

 

[MossMan]

I will say part of my A- grade has to do with the epic west wind event at the beginning of November along with a few other good blows that month, and again this weeks wind event up here! 

[Phil]

50 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Question for Phil. Is the polar vortex causing this?

Well, the lack of a polar vortex (thanks to the SSW) has helped to free some of the arctic air from the pole, and is indirectly responsible for the pattern producing the snow (by activating the MJO via MC acceleration).

So, technically yes, it is responsible.

[snow_wizard]

Already back down to 29 here.  This wind is Kold!

[MossMan]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Already back down to 29 here.  This wind is Kold!

That east wind today was bone chilling! 

[Ziess]

Stupid question here but how thick is this cold air currently? 

[Front Ranger]

17 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Atleast IMBY and most of western WA this ain’t close to 2011. We had a 30/25 day on 2/25/11…coldest day will likely be 36/27 today on this one. Really impressive numbers in SW BC and down in southern WA/OR. 

You don't think you'll get below 27 by midnight?

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

I will say part of my A- grade has to do with the epic west wind event at the beginning of November along with a few other good blows that month, and again this weeks wind event up here! 

Good point.  There is more that goes into grading a winter than just cold and snow.  In my mind though an A- winter is one like 1928-29, 1936-37, or 1955-56.  An A would be 1949-50 or 1968-69.

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Ziess said:

Stupid question here but how thick is this cold air currently? 

Not a stupid question, however I don’t know so here is my contribution. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

I will say part of my A- grade has to do with the epic west wind event at the beginning of November along with a few other good blows that month, and again this weeks wind event up here! 

Grading winters is like debating what kind of pizza or ice cream you like.  There is no right or wrong answer.   

[joelgombiner]

4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Hey, anybody got any snow maps I can send the lead nws for PDX? I deleted all of mine already.

 

Here's something I found in a minute just looking through the forum

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Ziess said:

Stupid question here but how thick is this cold air currently? 

Very.  I noticed some places in the Willapa Hills that are quite cold at only 2000 feet, and it just gets colder from there.

[Phil]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Probably just sets us up for that to be the main theme from April - June.  

Transition to +ENSO statistically favors a warm summer in the PNW. However the Hadley Cell low pass state is drastically improved compared to the last 3 years, so the 4CH likely won’t be a steroidal monster this year.

Could be a 1997 or 2019 type pattern for J/J/A.

[Cloud]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Grading winters is like debating what kind of pizza or ice cream you like.  There is no right or wrong answer.   

Is it okay to grade summers?  

I love ice cream in the summer time! 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Cloud said:

Is it okay to grade summers?  

I love ice cream in the summer time! 

Grading summers is just as pointless.  

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Transition to +ENSO favors a warm summer in the PNW. However the Hadley Cell low pass state is drastically improved compared to the last 3 years, so the 4CH likely won’t be a steroidal monster this year.

Could be a 1997 or 2019 type pattern for J/J/A.

So a wetter than normal summer?

[Cold Snap]

9 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Fwiw, the OR snowstorm yesterday was worthy of a named winter storm (do they still do those?) but I’m seeing very little national media coverage. If this was in the NE, they’d be all over it. Sadge

The Weather Channel names them and they are talking about it on there. It’s name is Piper.

[TacomaWx]

5 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

You don't think you'll get below 27 by midnight?

Already 32 here, could be in the low 20s by midnight. 

[Front Ranger]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Good point.  There is more that goes into grading a winter than just cold and snow.  In my mind though an A- winter is one like 1928-29, 1936-37, or 1955-56.  An A would be 1949-50 or 1968-69.

What's your highest grade for a winter this century?

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Grading summers is just as pointless.  

Grading severe season makes sense, but summer is basically the same here every year.  Every year gets an F.  A “cool” summer is mid/upper 80s and humid. A “hot” summer is low/mid 90s and humid. And there are bouts of upper 90s or low 100s every summer.

Easiest LR forecast imaginable. Predict the same thing every year and you’ll always be right.

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Grading summers is just as pointless.  

You know, I’ve seen snowfall this season north, south, east, and west of me. And I’m still sitting at 2” for the season so I’m gonna give it a generous C-!
 

Subject to change.  

I think that was a pointless post I just made  

[RentonHill]

11 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Hey, anybody got any snow maps I can send the lead nws for PDX? I deleted all of mine already.

 

The RGEM was showing like 3 feet! Even a the Euro had a big run near a foot in there i thought. 

[Cloud]

3 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

The Weather Channel names them and they are talking about it on there. It’s name is Piper.

Ahh yes, the named storms are usually with TWC. So they finally named it. Great!

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

So a wetter than normal summer?

To be determined. The only clear signal to me is the likelihood of a weaker/smaller 4CH. Other than that it’s too early to say.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

What's your highest grade for a winter this century?

If you're not weighing it against winters prior to 1975 I would give 2008-09 an A-.  That one would get a B+ in my book if considering earlier winters.

BTW in my earlier comment I forgot about the A+ grade.  Obviously 1861-62 and 1949-50 would get that.

 

[Winterdog]

My snowscape.  High 36F, low 27F, currently 33F with a DP of 20F