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PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale


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Ended up with a 29/24 day here. 29 was the midnight high and afternoon high. Partly cloudy early on then blue skies. Gusty east winds all day with ground blizzard conditions at times. Just a stunner of a day and the coldest I have ever seen this late in the season.

Down to 24 already, before the sun is even down, so should be improving on the low by midnight.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

To be determined. The only clear signal to me is the likelihood of a weaker/smaller 4CH. Other than that it’s too early to say.

I think it's too early to say we are transitioning to warm ENSO also.  Could easily end up neutral.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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This winter gets an F- here (to date). Worst in memory for me. Seasonal snowfall total is ~ 0.5”. 😂 

A big blizzard in mid/late March could bump it up a couple of letters, but it’ll never get an A grade.

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3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Ended up with a 29/24 day here. 29 was the midnight high and afternoon high. Partly cloudy early on then blue skies. Gusty east winds all day with ground blizzard conditions at times. Just a stunner of a day and the coldest I have ever seen this late in the season.

Down to 24 already, before the sun is even down, so should be improving on the low by midnight.

Sounds incredible.  What you guys got is very much like what we had in December last winter.  Just no beating that kind of event.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, eastvancouver said:

Did this get lost? Sorry, I just made an account and I don't know if my posts are public yet. At the time of the photo there were about 10 inches on the ground, and it snowed at least a few more inches after that.

Sounds like you live pretty close to me.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

This winter gets an F- here (to date). Worst in memory for me. Seasonal snowfall total is ~ 0.5”. 😂 

A big blizzard in mid/late March could bump it up a couple of letters, but it’ll never get an A grade.

I've heard it has been a total loss there so far, and some places north of there too.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

To be determined. The only clear signal to me is the likelihood of a weaker/smaller 4CH. Other than that it’s too early to say.

You were very confident about a wet summer during the spring of 2019.    It was the only summer in 20 years here where we never turned on the sprinklers once.   Stayed green from start to finish.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think it's too early to say we are transitioning to warm ENSO also.  Could easily end up neutral.

It’s on the margin for sure, but (IMO) it is safe to say La Niña is coming to an end, and -ENSO is becoming increasingly unlikely in 2023/24.

Also, the timing of the descending easterly shear (-QBO) may augment any move towards +ENSO mid/late year. I see no reason to expect a -ENSO outcome at the moment.

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

You were very confident about a wet summer during the spring of 2019.    It was the only summer in 20 years here where we never turned on the sprinklers once.   Stayed green from start to finish.  

Did I make the call this early, though? I’d be shocked if I did.

Like 2019 I do anticipate a smaller 4CH. But that could still easily coexist with a +PNA/+TNH type pattern and produce a warm outcome in the PNW.

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Did I make the call this early, though? I’d be shocked if I did.

Like 2019 I do anticipate a smaller 4CH. But that could still easily coexist with a +PNA/+TNH type pattern and produce a warm outcome in the PNW.

Interestingly... 2019 was a rare warmer/wetter than normal summer at SEA.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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A total of 8 freezing max temps here for last winter and this winter combined.  That is very decent for here.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, lowlandsnow said:

Could someone explain how inter hour observations work? NWS Seattle says the high was 35 for today while this NWS Weather & Hazards (noaa.gov) says it was 36

Supposedly comes down to celsius rounding.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Looks like a 35/26 spread back at home. Definitely really good for so late in the winter with sunshine and no snow cover. Wouldn’t be surprised if I improved on that 26 before midnight though with how quickly temperatures are dropping.

2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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Really strong winds coming out of the north Santiam canyon. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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6 minutes ago, Blizzard777 said:

30.7 here 🥶

38/27 for the day

Being right in line with the outflow from Stampede Pass really kept it chilly here today (high of 32).  The ECMWF picked up on that very nicely.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

Could someone explain how inter hour observations work? NWS Seattle says the high was 35 for today while this NWS Weather & Hazards (noaa.gov) says it was 36

Should expand on this a bit more as it’s discussed on here a lot. The rounding errors is due to obs taking in C. So the inter hours can be off. The official numbers for the 6hr period are the red numbers for highs and blue for lows. Use those. 

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4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

As far as low temps go for late February…the numbers to beat is 21F set just last year on 2/23/22, then 22F set on 2/26/11 in Tacoma. There’s a shot at 18-20F tonight depending on if the wind slacks out. We will see though. 

I ended up with a low of 16 in 2011.  More northerly gradients do result in great mins here.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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30 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Hey, anybody got any snow maps I can send the lead nws for PDX? I deleted all of mine already.

 

Frosty you should reply and tell him he's welcome to join us because we all saw this coming. Models were pretty much locked on to northern Oregon since last week. 

No wonder the NWS is so pessimistic when it comes to snow. 

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195572.png?1673757432

 

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17 minutes ago, Phil said:

This winter gets an F- here (to date). Worst in memory for me. Seasonal snowfall total is ~ 0.5”. 😂 

A big blizzard in mid/late March could bump it up a couple of letters, but it’ll never get an A grade.

Classic west/east gradient this winter. Though I do have a good feeling about the March blizzard!

90dTDeptUS.png

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A forum for the end of the world.

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12 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

A nice wet spring is perfect for a nice green summer.

The complete opposite last year.   Wet spring and dead brown summer.  And 2019 featured a dry spring and wet, green summer.   I think its better to spread things out... but that is just me. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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23 minutes ago, eastvancouver said:

Did this get lost? Sorry, I just made an account and I don't know if my posts are public yet. At the time of the photo there were about 10 inches on the ground, and it snowed at least a few more inches after that.

Welcome! Happy u scored so well!!

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Briefly touched 33f and in about 1 1/2hrs quickly dropped to 27 now.  Stayed windy all day.  Could have used some of that yesterday.  .25" of precip wasted.  Didn't have too much melting but with only less than 1/2" to work with, hard to tell.  Took a drive today.  Climbed east towards the foothills to 1,100ft and there was only about an inch.  At 200ft elevation near 224 by Sunnyside there was about 4".  No respect for elevation out my way. 

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6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Classic west/east gradient this winter. Though I do have a good feeling about the March blizzard!

90dTDeptUS.png

Yeah this year has all the hallmarks of a last minute flip to cold (prob mid-March) with a single snow event in there somewhere. Reminiscent of 2016/17 to some degree.

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