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PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale


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9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

EPS pepto... this is getting very real.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nw-total_snow_10to1-8320000.png

For a more close up view.

AF6B12C0-013D-4DDD-9E83-9B33CF883C00.png

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2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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16 minutes ago, Roman-Dallas Snow-Zone said:

Oh ok thanks that makes sense. I always thought 12" of snow is equal to 1" rain. pretty close. would be amazing if these maps verified 

I'm sure someone with more expertise will address this, but just in case it gets lost, my understanding is that the maps are often shown in a 10:1 ratio, which is kind of quick method for most snow, but can also be shown as the Kuchera ratio which takes the temperature into accountability and thus can be higher (12:1 or 15:1 or whatever) or lower (although I dont usually see those get posted.

Kuchera maps are not always more accurate but they can help guide thinking especially when it is marginal for snow or quite cold. The kind of snowflakes, crystals, pellets, etc. and how they loft depends on the temperature. Warmer temps (barely hanging on as snow) are denser and "heavy" as a result, so those maps would show a ratio less than 10:1. If it's warmer, we get wet, slushy snow and it compacts easier and gets us less snow depth. If it's colder, we get less dense, finer snow that lofts and we get more accumulation for the amount of water. So the Kuchera can be more (or less) fun than the 10:1 maps to daydream about. At least, that's what I've picked up from reading here. 

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Just now, Cloud said:

Dang, so you are so shocked by the pepto you had to dig deep into the dictionary eh? :P

Honestly, being the resident reverse psychology expert on here I need to ramp it up, I haven't been as aggressive with it as I have in the past recent years, that could be the problem for here.

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2 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Honestly, being the resident reverse psychology expert on here I need to ramp it up, I haven't been as aggressive with it as I have in the past recent years, that could be the problem for here.

What was your totals from couple days ago? 

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1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

Honestly, being the resident reverse psychology expert on here I need to ramp it up, I haven't been as aggressive with it as I have in the past recent years, that could be the problem for here.

Do the terms need to describe thr situation or your take on it? 

 

So doubtful could describe your take or the situation, but incredulous would only be your take on it. Improbable would only be the situation. Etc.

 

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1 minute ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

Do the terms need to describe thr situation or your take on it? 

 

So doubtful could describe your take or the situation, but incredulous would only be your take on it. Improbable would only be the situation. Etc.

 

We might get a couple wet dustings over the next week here, just not seeing any evidence myself that would boost confidence of anything more than that.

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2 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

The rain to rain transition is always a tricky call. 😂 

 

Isn’t snow just frozen rain?

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23 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

PDX just cracked freezing for the first time in over 40 hours.

Was hoping we can get a sub-freezing high up here despite the lack of snow in the Seattle area but no luck this time of year. Yesterday's 35 was awesome. A tad bit warmer today. 

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6 hours ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Several shots at lowland snow/ice coming for PDX. The 6z GFS and GEFS really upped the ante for that. Weagle's AFD was a must read mentioning a situation exactly like we just had with a low stalling at the mouth of the Columbia River and due to the snow pack we stay cold for much longer into March. Unreal.

 

Thanks for the heads up.  That's one of the more detailed AFD's I've read in a while.  His comment about "snow covered" parts in the metro area likely remaining snow/ice covered thru the end of this coming week was a fun little nugget :)

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41 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

There's nothing carved in stone about the 10:1 ratio. It's just an arbitrary baseline the models use to calculate potential snowfall amounts based on forecast precipitation. Actual snow ratios vary considerably depending mostly on temperature, but other factors as well. Generally, colder temps = higher snowfall amounts for a given amount of precip. 12:1 is well within the typical range.

How did you do with snow the other day. I knew you had an inch at one point. Someone I know up the McKenzie Valley said they got hosed, but they got about 6" with the V-Day trough. 

 

42 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

PDX just cracked freezing for the first time in over 40 hours.

I am kind of surprised they cracked it so easily. I would think they would be a cold spot with so much access to outflow. Either way, they probably won't get much above 34-35, add a couple to that for SLE, and a couple to that for EUG. Could be a really cold night. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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15 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Pretty amazing that a place with 100F average July highs and flourishing date palms has gotten more snow than some parts of the Willamette Valley in the last five years.

Jesse will be right with you. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Holy Toledo.

610analog.off.gif

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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