PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[Cold Snap]

6 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Looks like a meteogram for the mountains.

Has the EPS ever looked like that for the lowlands before? That is insane literally every member is pink at the end.

[Omegaraptor]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Holy Toledo.

1951!!!

[dhoffine]

1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

1951!!!

I wish I understood that picture lol. 

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Has the EPS ever looked like that for the lowlands before? That is insane literally every member is pink at the end.

Not that I can recall. I don’t think I’ve seen a nearly 15 inch mean.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

1951!!!

Some of those other ones are pretty good too. That top analog from February 1956 is interesting. Also March 2006 was good, and March 62' had a huge snow event here. 

[Slushy Inch]

4 minutes ago, dhoffine said:

I wish I understood that picture lol. 

Don’t know about troughs and ridges?

[umadbro]

One thing I learned last year is that it can snow well into April. Road temps be damned.

[joelgombiner]

6 minutes ago, dhoffine said:

I wish I understood that picture lol. 

I believe it shows a forecast of the 500 mb height pattern (black lines), the 500 mb height anomalies (the red/blue lines), and then a list of years that had similar patterns at this time of year (the analogs). 

[Phishy Wx]

2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Don’t know about troughs and ridges?

maybe not up to date on Anal Logs

[Cold Snap]

7 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Not that I can recall. I don’t think I’ve seen a nearly 15 inch mean.

Wild. The fact that it’s also showing this so late in the season just makes it that much more wild.

[Slushy Inch]

NAM has  been showing what I think is a strong deformation zone developing over the puget sound at some point late Sunday or Monday.

[Weiner Warrior]

[Weiner Warrior]

[Snownerd3000]

1 hour ago, RentonHill said:

I'm more excited about discharging my dog's anal glands than this upcoming pattern

You want to do mine while you're at it?

[SouthHillFrosty]

Puppy photos for Goodluck!

[Cold Snap]

NAM looks really interesting. The low placement is primed for the Seattle area to see something good.

[SouthHillFrosty]

That deformation band is the wild card

[Cold Snap]

RGEM shows it in the prime spot as well but it doesn’t have the huge deformation band that the NAM has.

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

That deformation band is the wild card

After some more reading it is definitely a deformations band. The area of convergence is clear.

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

After some more reading it is definitely a deformations band. The area of convergence is clear.

And shape is consistent with description.

 

In satellite images, a Deformation Band is a cloud line that:

• elongates, becoming narrower and longer, usually keeping its orientation
• thins out in the middle, eventually breaking
• can be straight or slightly arched

 

 

[Jbolin]

9 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Puppy photos for Goodluck!

That's a good lookin' Bork Bork, Nom Nom 

[Cloud]

This was 6 hours ago but I can’t really imagine a scenario where it’ll be 0.5 in Seattle to 3” in Bremerton into Monday. Especially with the models consensus. 
 

The ultra conservative NWS strikes again. They’ll eventually adjust this.
 

 

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, Cloud said:

This was 6 hours ago but I can’t really imagine a scenario where it’ll be 0.5 in Seattle to 3” in Bremerton into Monday. Especially with the models consensus. 
 

The ultra conservative NWS strikes again. They’ll eventually adjust this.
 

 

They will adjust it mid event.

[TT-SEA]

Beautiful day... but snow is still hanging on.

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

I thought rain was melted snow?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

17 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

That deformation band is the wild card

Holy FUKK, 20 inches here and this is only 3.5 days away not 240 hrs

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Holy FUKK, 20 inches here and this is only 3.5 days away not 240 hrs

Might be the usual NAM silliness... but the ECMWF shows the same general theme with less snow.

[joelgombiner]

4 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

They will adjust it mid event.

They had Dana Felton from Seattle NWS on KUOW today, who communicated a chance of snow or a rain-snow mix overnight Saturday changing to rain Sunday morning. Kind of felt underplayed compared to what I'm seeing posted on here. 

What I see happening here, which I think was touched on yesterday by hawkstwelve, is that there is a snow panic culture in in this region. If the radio says there is an impending winter storm, people won't be reasonable about it at all, but will go out and create a traffic jam and panic buy milk and snow shovels. Maybe if everyone just chilled out about snow, the NWS wouldn't be so scared of creating a panic and could issue more honest snow predictions?  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just a lovely crisp bluebird day up this way. And the models continue trending snowy for Saturday night. This is starting to feel real.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

7 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Holy FUKK, 20 inches here and this is only 3.5 days away not 240 hrs

Starting to feel a bit like 2019, isn’t it?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

What I see happening here, which I think was touched on yesterday by hawkstwelve, is that there is a snow panic culture in in this region. If the radio says there is an impending winter storm, people won't be reasonable about it at all, but will go out and create a traffic jam and panic buy milk and snow shovels. Maybe if everyone just chilled out about snow, the NWS wouldn't be so scared of creating a panic and could issue more honest snow predictions?  

Yes, but dishonestly downplaying snow chances is no solution. Look at what just happened in Portland. Would have been better if a lot of people had stayed home that day (or quit work at noon).

[Phishy Wx]

3 minutes ago, joelgombiner said:

They had Dana Felton from Seattle NWS on KUOW today, who communicated a chance of snow or a rain-snow mix overnight Saturday changing to rain Sunday morning. Kind of felt underplayed compared to what I'm seeing posted on here. 

What I see happening here, which I think was touched on yesterday by hawkstwelve, is that there is a snow panic culture in in this region. If the radio says there is an impending winter storm, people won't be reasonable about it at all, but will go out and create a traffic jam and panic buy milk and snow shovels. Maybe if everyone just chilled out about snow, the NWS wouldn't be so scared of creating a panic and could issue more honest snow predictions?  

like here in Spokane.  NWS just forecasts snow when it's going to snow.  It's expected to snow in winter, so little pressure, although they do occasionally bust.  Only people who freak out about snow are those who recently moved here from warmer climes. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Might be the usual NAM silliness... but the ECMWF shows the same general theme with less snow.

Nam shows a low in the sweet spot icon looks much like nam also.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

5 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Starting to feel a bit like 2019, isn’t it?

YES  i mentioned this the other day, there was a period in 2019 where i had snow event after snow event that kept piling up. Temp was between 30-34 the entire period. But even at 30 31 you can have some nice snow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I took this screenshot of the GFS ensemble from last night. Hard to believe there won’t be some lowland slow somewhere with this pattern. 

[Weiner Warrior]

CZ attack

 

[Slushy Inch]

 

 

[Slushy Inch]

6 minutes ago, Weiner Warrior said:

CZ attack

 

Forms right after the front and extends the period of moderate snow into later Sunday morning.

[MikeInEverett]

I haven’t told anyone anything.. mostly because I’m not very confident in anything major happening here. Feels too marginal. All those pepto members for Paine Field sure do look pretty and give me some hope though.

[Rubus Leucodermis]