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PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale


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1 minute ago, MillCreekMike said:

I haven’t told anyone anything.. mostly because I’m not very confident in anything major happening here. Feels too marginal. All those pepto members for Paine Field sure do look pretty though.

Hard not to believe it’s coming when each model run gets more and more crazy.

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I’m starting to get the feeling the models are catching on to something for Tuesday.

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2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

Hard not to believe it’s coming when each model run gets more and more crazy.

Yup. One has to keep one’s emotions out of it. This applies as much to feeling jinxed and ignoring model consensus that it’s going to be snowy as it does to wanting snow and ignoring consensus in favour of cold rain just because an outlier model says snow. At this stage, the most reasonable conclusion is that a lowland snow event is going to happen.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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A little less here than the 12z. I'm trying not to be greedy! LOL

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Yup. One has to keep one’s emotions out of it. This applies as much to feeling jinxed and ignoring model consensus that it’s going to be snowy as it does to wanting snow and ignoring consensus in favour of cold rain just because an outlier model says snow. At this stage, the most reasonable conclusion is that a lowland snow event is going to happen.

For late Saturday and Sunday morning for sure. After that, it’s kind of hard to believe.

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The way people are talking about this carries weird echoes of February 2019, to me. And we got an incredible 24" that year. The forecast ahead of time was kind of downplaying it, but then it was a multi-day marathon of more and more snow. That was wild.  

Are there ACTUAL similarities to that pattern here, or is it just a coincidence? 

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2 minutes ago, WildrootParable said:

The way people are talking about this carries weird echoes of February 2019, to me. And we got an incredible 24" that year. The forecast ahead of time was kind of downplaying it, but then it was a multi-day marathon of more and more snow. That was wild.  

Are there ACTUAL similarities to that pattern here, or is it just a coincidence? 

There might be a number of snow events but it won’t be as cold during the day and pile up the the way it did in 2019.

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2 minutes ago, WildrootParable said:

The way people are talking about this carries weird echoes of February 2019, to me. And we got an incredible 24" that year. The forecast ahead of time was kind of downplaying it, but then it was a multi-day marathon of more and more snow. That was wild.  

Are there ACTUAL similarities to that pattern here, or is it just a coincidence? 

Similar but not the same. More wide spread this year and more marginal snow events since it’s getting super late in the year. 

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Skeptical of some of the pepto down this way-- but I was skeptical we'd even get a widespread 2-5 inches this week and look what happened...

Hope with all my heart the Central/South Sound and the mid valley get buried this time around 🙏

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

And a new contender enters the ring.

Sports and warm weather. YIKES

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Ruff afternoon Andrew.

Beautiful drive down from Salem through Monmouth/Buena Vista to Albany. Coast range, Cascades, and South Salem Hills sparkling with snow, solid snow cover until one gets about 5 miles north of Albany. Mid-range GFS is improved. But not quite as good as the GEM/EURO suite yet.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Beautiful drive down from Salem through Monmouth/Buena Vista to Albany. Coast range, Cascades, and South Salem Hills sparkling with snow, solid snow cover until one gets about 5 miles north of Albany. Mid-range GFS is improved. But not quite as good as the GEM/EURO suite yet.

It’s a beautiful life again.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Going to take a guess, from saturday night through next week my total snowfall will between 12-20 inches.

I'll go with 10-15" here. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Going to be some tough forecasts for the local mets coming up. Very well could be all about the timing. If the timing works out the seattle tacoma area could see some major snowfall in the same period But if the timing is bad then metro might only see a few inches. looks like the most interesting snow period of the season.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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I have a feeling the GFS is going to trend better for the trough late next week. #realdeal#rocksolid

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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5 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Going to take a guess, from saturday night through next week my total snowfall will between 12-20 inches.

And if the pattern continues for where you are vs where I am, then I'm guessing we'll get just slightly less than you. Phew! Won't be disappointed with that, if it shakes out. 

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And BOOM! Snowfall warning, 6–10", locally to 14".

Quote

2:00 PM PST Friday 24 February 2023
Snowfall warning in effect for:

  • Metro Vancouver - central including the City of Vancouver Burnaby and New Westminster
  • Metro Vancouver - North Shore including West Vancouver and North Vancouver
  • Metro Vancouver - northeast including Coquitlam and Maple Ridge
  • Metro Vancouver - southeast including Surrey and Langley
  • Metro Vancouver - southwest including Richmond and Delta

Heavy snow is expected Saturday night.

Where: Metro Vancouver, the Fraser Valley, Howe Sound, Whistler, and Sea to Sky highway - from Squamish to Whistler.

When: Saturday night.

Hazards: Total snowfall amounts ranging from 15 to 25 cm with local amounts up to 35 cm.

Remarks: A significant weather system will push across the South Coast this weekend bringing widespread snow to the region. Periods of light snow will start on Saturday afternoon and intensify to heavy snow in the evening. Heavy snow is expected to ease early Sunday morning for most regions.

Prepare for quickly changing and deteriorating travel conditions. Rapidly accumulating snow will make travel difficult. Visibility may be suddenly reduced at times in heavy snow. Surfaces such as highways, roads, walkways and parking lots may become difficult to navigate due to accumulating snow.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to BCstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports using #BCStorm.

 

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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1 minute ago, dhoffine said:

I'm guessing I'll see more heavy wind, blowing light snow, and no real accumulation...  Yes, I am a pessimist :(

you will do really good out there. Elevation next week is going to be everything. The difference between 200ft and 600ft could be several inches easy.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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