PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[Dave]

Snowing in Eugene. Giant flakes but no stickage. Temp has dropped from 40 to 37 in the last 10 minutes. I'm seeing sticking snow on tripcheck cams just west of town.

[bainbridgekid]

1 minute ago, Eugene Snow said:

Biggest snowflakes I have ever seen.  1 inch on the ground and accumulating fast.  Gonna be a fun night.

Radar doesn’t even usually pick things up by Eugene and it’s showing up plenty so must be quite convective with high cloud tops.

[joelgombiner]

One thing that is pretty easy to Nowcast is comparing where a low center is modeled to be vs. where it actually is. You can figure out where it is based on surface winds, sea-level pressure readings, or, when it's offshore, where it looks like the clouds are spinning around. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

Radar doesn’t even usually pick things up by Eugene and it’s showing up plenty so must be quite convective with high cloud tops.

I seriously don't think I could handle living in an area with almost no radar coverage!  

[Dave]

5 minutes ago, Eugene Snow said:

Biggest snowflakes I have ever seen.  1 inch on the ground and accumulating fast.  Gonna be a fun night.

Sticking for me on grassy/elevated surfaces. 

[Phishy Wx]

oof NWS Spokane has fallen victim to the "Graphic"

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

19 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It the NAM is on moonshine... what is the ICON smoking??    The 00Z run is so stupid.  

At least it has the southern focus right over my house. 

[Meatyorologist]

Radar is looking quite vibrant and dewpoints are crashing.

[joelgombiner]

Just now, Phishy Wx said:

oof NWS Spokane has fallen victim to the "Graphic"

 

 

Oof. Though according to the recent post by mjreich, the NBM should be performing better now than it did last week, because we are not in the midst of a major pattern switch but have had a similar pattern for a little while now. 

[gusky]

3 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

oof NWS Spokane has fallen victim to the "Graphic"

 

 

At least it's not as bad as this one

[thisisacreativename]

Stars are out here now... cooling off really quickly.

[Dave]

Sticking everywhere. Already have a half inch on my fence. This brings my seasonal total to 1".

[Phishy Wx]

WOW

 

 

[Eujunga]

Sticking here at 850'.

[Perturbed Member]

25 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It the NAM is on moonshine... what is the ICON smoking??    The 00Z run is so stupid.  

Even the ICON shows that band coming up the WV tomorrow. Pretty neat. 

[Perturbed Member]

00z GFS has some stupidly heavily snowfall rates early AM along the southern and central OR coast. 

[smerfylicious]

Here's what I'm watching tonight. Tahoe City getting righteously dumped on.

 

No, I'm not jealous at all! Why would you say that?

https://hdontap.com/index.php/video/stream/cobblestone-center

[Dave]

400' here. Street lamp alert.

 

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

Here's what I'm watching tonight. Tahoe City getting righteously dumped on.

 

No, I'm not jealous at all! Why would you say that?

https://hdontap.com/index.php/video/stream/cobblestone-center

That’s a magnificent shot.

[Phil]

 

[Perturbed Member]

00z GFS is further south with that surface low coming ashore tomorrow AM. Would be more of a central WV special if this verified. 

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS improved for Seattle compared to 12Z and 18Z runs.

[TT-SEA]

Interestingly... the northern low position tomorrow morning on the 00Z GFS is basically identical to the 12Z and 18Z run but still ends up snowier for Seattle.

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

00z GFS is further south with that surface low coming ashore tomorrow AM. Would be more of a central WV special if this verified. 

Mark Nelsen just mentioned the possibility
There will probably be a few towns/spots that pick up 1-3″ in the lowlands. I have a feeling someone between Longview and Eugene in the I-5 corridor will get nailed by at least 2″ of snow in the next 24 hours. That didn’t happen this morning, but it’s more likely tomorrow morning. We can’t tell you where that will happen, which is even more reason to give yourself extra time in the morning. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Interestingly... the northern low position tomorrow morning on the 00Z GFS is basically identical to the 12Z and 18Z run but still ends up snowier for Seattle.

Yea was about to mention that…..  a lot less precip out near Neah Bay and a lot more in the sound this time….. who knows lol

[Mr Marine Layer]

Riverside, CA has more snow than parts of the East Coast this winter. Phil should come here.

[MWG]

Right now! still 34F though.

[SnowWillarrive]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Yea was about to mention that…..  a lot less precip out near Neah Bay and a lot more in the sound this time….. who knows lol

Positive trends!!  Looks more similar to the Euro for King County. 

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Yea was about to mention that…..  a lot less precip out near Neah Bay and a lot more in the sound this time….. who knows lol

Absolutely lovely!! 

[MossMan]

32.5! DP 31.6

[Cascadia_Wx]

Great to see the south valley and Medford area scoring already tonight. Hopefully @TigerWoodsLibido can get in on the fun too.

[snow_wizard]

The NAM, ICON, and GFS are all better than their 18z runs.  This could still end up ok.

[FroYoBro]

5 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Great to see the south valley and Medford area scoring already tonight. Hopefully @TigerWoodsLibido can get in on the fun too.

Starting to get nice and snowy in Ashland! 
 

https://www.youtube.com/live/OLrV_Hgl5Wo?feature=share

 

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

Can someone explain to me what this part of Cliff Mass's latest blog post means? He starts by saying rhe model is showing snowfall, not snow depth. But then talks about how the snowfall wpuld be less over the warmer water. Why? If we're just talking about snowfall and not accumulating snow, why would the sea level temp matter? If the snow levels is dropped due to evaporation rates, how would the surface below the precipitation impact the amount that falls? Is it that much warmer feet above the water than feet above the land?

Obviously being closer to water makes snow less likely but I thought that had more to do with it being less chance of accumulating or in the case of the coast, less access to continental air than how much snow actually fell. Anyone bored and care to explain? 

[Hawksfan2008]

Low locations at 10 am tomorrow morning. If it ends up in this cluster the central sound will get nailed. 

[bainbridgekid]

Radar really blossoming both at the Washington Coast and South of Centralia. That’s a good sign for the Puget Sound region after midnight.

 

[LowerGarfield]

5 hours ago, MWG said:

This really gives me hope about tonight into tomorrow! 

Rooting for you as you're still super overdue! Great video of snow at the school. I bet you still have people in Medford complaining about the snow, right? Enjoy it!

[DRG]

Never doubt the accuracy of the repurposed freezer temp-o-meter

Old "weather station" died this trip, had to improvise...

[snow_wizard]

SEA is really racking up the minus departures.  A -8 today and their 11th freezing min of the month.  Dec and Feb are both going to end up over 3F below normal, and decently below the old normals.

[TT-SEA]

00Z GEM is way better from Seattle northward than its 12Z run. 

[Perturbed Member]

00z GEM is bringing that little surface low into the central WV too. Unless the 00z Euro says otherwise I think this will be a pretty nice surprise for people down there. I will never say no to more snow but if PDX gets missed but Salem to Eugene get a nice little event, that is just fine by me. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

WRF-GFS doesn’t look good so far

Edited February 28 by SouthHillFrosty

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z GEM is way better from Seattle northward than its 12Z run. 

Yuck.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

37 minutes ago, Dave said:

Sticking everywhere. Already have a half inch on my fence. This brings my seasonal total to 1".

Wow. I’m already wrong and the night is young. This band moving through here has dropped about an inch in 15 minutes. 

[Phishy Wx]

NWS Spokane just updated to 4-6"

 

oh boy

 

 

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z GEM is way better from Seattle northward than its 12Z run. 

Amazing!! 

[Requiem]

2 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

00z GEM is bringing that little surface low into the central WV too. Unless the 00z Euro says otherwise I think this will be a pretty nice surprise for people down there. I will never say no to more snow but if PDX gets missed but Salem to Eugene get a nice little event, that is just fine by me. 

I'm not gonna be too unhappy if that thing misses PDX, but I do also think that it's still definitely gonna be a GOLU and SILAR (stay inside look at radar ) situation for us. We know how those small minute differences make all the difference in real time.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

WRF-GFS doesn’t look good so far

It's showing way too much drying in King County.  The offshore flow is weak.

[TT-SEA]

13 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The NAM, ICON, and GFS are all better than their 18z runs.  This could still end up ok.

The NAM and GFS are better... the ICON is terrible and worse than its 18Z run.    We can add in the GEM being overall better now as well.   

[LowerGarfield]

2 hours ago, MossMan said:

We are almost to the point of looking at the most reliable model out there…

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