PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[Cold Snap]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

@Cold Snap ECMWF shows precip arriving tomorrow evening right about the time your plane lands.    Perfect timing assuming the flight is on time!  

Yeah I’m hoping it doesn’t get delayed. Going to be cutting it very close. The drive home from the airport might be a little rough though.

[TT-SEA]

Post frontal snow from 7 a.m. Sunday through 7 a.m. Monday.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Cold Snap said:

Yeah I’m hoping it doesn’t get delayed. Going to be cutting it very close. The drive home from the airport might be a little rough though.

I think precip will initially be quite light... probably no travel issues on the freeway that early.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

9 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Looks like 850mb temps for this event bottomed out at -8.3c at SLE. Not that cold, 2022, 2018 and 2011 were colder but at the surface this is definitely way colder and snowier than all of them for PDX.

Yeah the low stalling out kind of hung up the cold air, but great low level CAA. Very impressive highs at PDX and SLE. 
 

What’s funny is we may see a lower 850mb temp in the next 10 days. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Post frontal snow from 7 a.m. Sunday through 7 a.m. Monday.

Looks like 3-4” here with the initial front and then 2-3” from 7-7, but some of that may also be with the main front down this way. 

[TT-SEA]

SW wind completely flips around to the E by Monday morning and low moves into position off the WA coast.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like 3-4” here with the initial front and then 2-3” from 7-7, but some of that may also be with the main front down this way. 

Yeah... main front does not clear your area until 9 or 10 a.m. on Sunday.

[Kolk1604]

10:1 and Kuchera, snow totals are up on the 00z compared to the 12z and 18z 

[TT-SEA]

High temps Monday... precip is fairly scattered that day across western WA but more active in western OR.    Might even be some sun at times in western WA on Monday afternoon.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Post frontal snow from 7 a.m. Sunday through 7 a.m. Monday.

Doesn't it warm up to 40F+ over most of the lowlands in that timeframe?

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

Doesn't it warm up to 40F+ over most of the lowlands in that timeframe?

Dew points remain near or below freezing. 

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF looks decently snowy on Tuesday... waiting for snow maps to update.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

Doesn't it warm up to 40F+ over most of the lowlands in that timeframe?

I post Sunday high temps earlier... but then its below freezing again on Monday morning with an east wind.

[Doinko]

4 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Looks like 850mb temps for this event bottomed out at -8.3c at SLE. Not that cold, 2022, 2018 and 2011 were colder but at the surface this is definitely way colder and snowier than all of them for PDX.

-20.1c at OTX. For comparison they got down to -15.7c in Jan 2023, -21.1c in Dec 2022, -18.1c in Feb 2022, -17.5c in Dec 2021 (actually on Jan 1st 2022), -18.7c in Feb 2021,  and -15.9 in Feb 2019.

[TT-SEA]

High temps Tuesday

[TT-SEA]

Snow from 7 a.m. Monday through 7 a.m. Tuesday... but there is more snow on Tuesday morning.   

[Meatyorologist]

Took the mum out to Ocean Shores today. Extremely windy and cold, the sand was frozen and the ponds all have a layer of ice on them. Brought along the dog too and he was light enough to walk on the thin ice. Funnily enough the residual snow here is still more than what I have at home.

[SouthHillFrosty]

[TT-SEA]

Here is the problem with Tuesday morning though... temps are pretty marginal and we are back to a decent SW wind.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Snow from 7 a.m. Monday through 7 a.m. Tuesday... but there is more snow on Tuesday morning.   

Heck yeah!

[Doinko]

Next Wednesday is cold

[Weiner Warrior]

Still looking like elevation will make a huge difference if the EURO pans out. Could be similar to the snow earlier this year for Seattle

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Here is the problem with Tuesday morning though... temps are pretty marginal and we are back to a decent SW wind.

Looks below freezing down here. What gives? Lol

[TT-SEA]

First system is way south by Wednesday morning and all eyes turn to the next system to the north.  

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Here is the problem with Tuesday morning though... temps are pretty marginal and we are back to a decent SW wind.

Lets just say it'll be close. 

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

30 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It’s easily snow here either way. 
 

Well GEM is a rain to snow, which is a pretty common transition in this pattern. 

Snow here as well. Sw wind doesn't always mean rain lol.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks below freezing down here. What gives? Lol

No idea... although with the right set up the Seattle area warms up faster with a SW wind coming through the Chehalis Gap while the WV is more protected.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Lets just say it'll be close. 

 

Interesting... the higher resolution WB maps are quite a bit warmer at that same time (10 a.m. on Tuesday).

[Slushy Inch]

That’s what I like to see.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

That’s what I like to see.

Oh yeah... that is a BOOM for your area.   Perfectly placed!  

[TacomaWx]

7 minutes ago, Weiner Warrior said:

Still looking like elevation will make a huge difference if the EURO pans out. Could be similar to the snow earlier this year for Seattle

Yes, I was thinking that earlier. Lot of people below 100-200’ didn’t do nearly as well in late November/early December. I’m near the sound but the 300’ of elevation actually helps out quite a bit in these set ups despite being less than 1 mile from the sound. 

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Oh yeah... that is a BOOM for your area.   Perfectly placed!  

Second run in a row. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

00Z Euro says I get a little under 14".

[snow_wizard]

On the ECMWF we need to keep in mind it's further north with the low than other models on Tuesday.  Low track is going to be a big deal with that.  I do like the fact it has a lot of precip Monday Night which looks to easily be all snow either way.

[BLI snowman]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Here is the problem with Tuesday morning though... temps are pretty marginal and we are back to a decent SW wind.

Looks pretty good from Kelso-south.

[SnarkyGoblin]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Interesting... the higher resolution WB maps are quite a bit warmer at that same time (10 a.m. on Tuesday).

Those were dew points.

[Meatyorologist]

This upcoming Sat-Wed period looks pretty amazing for marginal snow chances. Odds are a few of them will work out here.

I desperately want to believe the #epic PSCZ action the Euro has for North Seattle, but it seems that nine times out of ten its southern extent past the Snohomish/King line is overstated, and the Lynwood black hole of death sucks all the precip to the north and buries them in particular. Greedy bastards.

Not to mention I live in a narrow valley, so even the highest resolution meso models erroneously double my elevation and blend my area in with Shoreline.

North Seattle is pathetically due to get nailed by a PSCZ. Jan 2020 brought an inch or so, but the real action kept just to the north. Jan 2012 is the last time we were under the bullseye for the lower elevations. Apparently it happened on this end of the city quite a bit from 2006-2012. Dec 1990 is of course the granddaddy here.

[TT-SEA]

@Kolk1604 just noticed your map was dewpoints... that explains the difference.

[Kolk1604]

Decent event for the region on the GEFS 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

No idea... although with the right set up the Seattle area warms up faster with a SW wind coming through the Chehalis Gap while the WV is more protected.

Could be due to precip rates too.