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PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale


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Tomorrow night is almost going to be a wait until it starts situation for precip type in some places.  It would be easy to make a case for mostly rain in Pierce and South King Counties, but it could also go the other way pretty easily.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, Cold Snap said:

Euro says next for Thursday it starts as light snow before changing to rain.

But then it seems to switch back to snow that night.

2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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5 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Second run in a row. 

That would be awesome. Depicted snow coverage over the Sound probably means this is some good 31-33F snow too, so elevation may be more of a bonus than a prerequisite.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Tomorrow night is almost going to be a wait until it starts situation for precip type in some places.  It would be easy to make a case for mostly rain in Pierce and South King Counties, but it could also go the other way pretty easily.

That would be horrible🤮🤮

Edited by SouthHillFrosty
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2 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

But then it seems to switch back to snow that night.

Farther north though... total snow from Thursday 4 p.m. through Friday 4 p.m.  and high temps Friday.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-snow_24hr_kuchera-7888000 (1).png

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-7888000.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I have to wonder if the ECMWF is overdoing the cold for King County late Sunday night.  Really cold!

1677495600-DYRx6JnIGNU.png

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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39/22 at KSEA today. Stellar. Gonna get kold again tonight.

  • Like 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

I have to wonder if the ECMWF is overdoing the cold for King County late Sunday night.  Really cold!

1677495600-DYRx6JnIGNU.png

Wind switches to east and precip temporarily dries up so it might even clear out late Sunday night.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

That who’s be horrible🤮🤮

I just want to point out it could bust for this area.  Chances are pretty good it won't.  This situation is a bit different than typical so it will be a good learning experience.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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If the ECMWF is accurate... there will be around 2-3 inches of snow still on the ground in my area one week from now.   It shows several significantly windy days which is never good for snow cover.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Wind switches to east and precip temporarily dries up so it might even clear out late Sunday night.  

Maybe a little bit of seepage from Central WA too.  Tuesday night gets quite chilly as well.  It will be really hard for most places to miss getting some snow.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

39/22 at KSEA today. Stellar. Gonna get kold again tonight.

Already down to 27 here.  This has been a really nice cold snap.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

@snow_wizard here is why the ECMWF gets cold on Sunday night... its basically clears out except for some high clouds.

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-clouds_fourpanel-7488400.png

It just that it's been emphasizing King County so heavily the last several runs.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Maybe a little bit of seepage from Central WA too.  Tuesday night gets quite chilly as well.  It will be really hard for most places to miss getting some snow.

Yeah... almost everyone should see snow over the next week.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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94611DDB-B12A-4979-BE66-A2E298A45520.png

It's going to be pretty surreal tomorrow afternoon knowing there is an impending snowstorm while simultaneously warming into the 40s, with no change in sfc level airmass between peak heating around 3pm and the onset of precipitation around 10pm.

Pretty much the only driver behind tomorrow night's snow is the residual dry air in the lower 5000' causing evaporative cooling. Actual temperatures would be far too warm otherwise.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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28 already at SEA.  That is actually kind of eye popping for them.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

94611DDB-B12A-4979-BE66-A2E298A45520.png

It's going to be pretty surreal tomorrow afternoon knowing there is an impending snowstorm while simultaneously warming into the 40s, with no change in sfc level airmass between peak heating around 3pm and the onset of precipitation around 10pm.

Pretty much the only driver behind tomorrow night's snow is the residual dry air in the lower 5000' causing evaporative cooling. Actual temperatures would be far too warm otherwise.

Yeah... the front tomorrow night would be a fairly standard cold rain and mountain snow situation if not for the remnant dry air mass in place.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

94611DDB-B12A-4979-BE66-A2E298A45520.png

It's going to be pretty surreal tomorrow afternoon knowing there is an impending snowstorm while simultaneously warming into the 40s, with no change in sfc level airmass between peak heating around 3pm and the onset of precipitation around 10pm.

Pretty much the only driver behind tomorrow night's snow is the residual dry air in the lower 5000' causing evaporative cooling. Actual temperatures would be far too warm otherwise.

This dry air is no joke either.  The real wild card is whether the models are showing too much precip inhibition for the Central Sound.  The low position being indicated doesn't normally cause near as much precip inhibition for this area as a low further south.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

Non event

It shows your area doing pretty well.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

When you add it all up it looks really impressive.   Everyone gets snow.  

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_snow_kuchera-7996000.png

I would double my seasonal total so far if that verifies.

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2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 48

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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This whole thing coming up is pretty much a shotgun approach to creating snowfall here.  There will be some big surprises I'm thinking.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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For Seattle proper... most of the snow shown on the ECMWF has already happened by Monday afternoon.     So its imminent and not way off at the end of the run.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... the front tomorrow night would be a fairly standard cold rain and mountain snow situation if not for the remnant dry air mass in place.

I had a feeling you in particular would find this interesting. You seem to be partial to strange meteorological situations like this.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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