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PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale


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Just now, snow_wizard said:

This whole thing coming up is pretty much a shotgun approach to creating snowfall here.  There will be some big surprises I'm thinking.

Agreed... there is not one big event that will make or break it.   Its just lots of opportunities.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

By next weekend that system is heading down into CA per the ECMWF and it might finally be quieting down with nothing upstream.

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-precip_6hr_inch-8017600.png

I think we are going to have a period of chilly and dry weather eventually.  Maybe even another shot of Candian cold air.  Day 9 ECMWF looks pretty cold and dry.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I see 2-3 potential snow events for PDX over the next 3-5 days. I think the models particularly the Euro is too warm with temps. One thing to factor in is unlike every other time when we're looking at a possible snow event this time we have deep snow cover on the ground helping to cool the air mass more than models are realizing. That could play a big role over the next 3-5 days. Long range based on the 00z GEFS and 00z Euro Op we may be real close to seeing another significant cold, continental Canadian air mass visit us in early March. C'MON!!!!

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1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Gonna be some really nice lows next weekend with that giant suppressed trough.

This is a really nice pattern we've settled into.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

Still chilly.

For sure.    It will be cold the next 10 days.    That is a given now.

But that ridge at the end of the ECMWF run is making steady progress eastward.   We might actually have a pattern change coming into view.   

f1561f0d-d18b-4b88-b930-22477023589e.gif

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

For sure.    It will be cold the next 10 days.    That is a given now.

But that ridge at the end of the ECMWF run is making steady progress eastward.   We might actually have a pattern change coming into view.   

f1561f0d-d18b-4b88-b930-22477023589e.gif

GEFS and GEPS ens stall the pattern at this point.

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7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This dry air is no joke either.  The real wild card is whether the models are showing too much precip inhibition for the Central Sound.  The low position being indicated doesn't normally cause near as much precip inhibition for this area as a low further south.

It's dry for sure... I don't normally use chapstick but today's foray on the whindy whashington koast (Arctic edition) left my lips feeling less like two plump earthworms and more like the rugged spine of the Chilean Andes.

As for tomorrow night, the weaker pressure gradients should mean weaker easterlies and a better potential to saturate this residual airmass. Might take some sacrificial bands to moisten the lower levels up, but without a strong driver to reinforce more dry air through the Cascade gaps, I think QPF won't be too inhibited. Especially to the NW of the city.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

GEFS and GEPS ens stall the pattern at this point.

Yes... but maybe the GFS is leading the way again like Andrew always says.   It is interesting to see the ECMWF going that way as well now by day 10.   The pattern has to change eventually. 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

GEFS and GEPS ens stall the pattern at this point.

GEFS control has a sustained period of -10 850s late in the run.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

It's dry for sure... I don't normally use chapstick but today's foray on the whindy whashington koast (Arctic edition) left my lips feeling less like two plump earthworms and more like the rugged spine of the Chilean Andes.

As for tomorrow night, the weaker pressure gradients should mean weaker easterlies and a better potential to saturate this residual airmass. Might take some sacrificial bands to moisten the lower levels up, but without a strong driver to reinforce more dry air through the Cascade gaps, I think QPF won't be too inhibited. Especially to the NW of the city.

I could easily see it going a nearly all snow event for most places tomorrow night in spite of mid levels supposedly becoming very marginal in places.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yes... but maybe the GFS is leading the way again like Andrew always says.   It is interesting to see the ECMWF going that way as well now by day 10.   The pattern has to change eventually. 

I hope we take the 1951 route for spring.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Agreed... there is not one big event that will make or break it.   Its just lots of opportunities.

Can't really ask for anything more this time of year. Pretty much the perfect time to do this whole tango since Arctic air is rapidly becoming a taller and taller order, yet psun angles haven't quite reached their potential to torch us to high hell in the afternoon given a four minute sunbreak.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Just now, SnowySeeker50 said:

38/19 spread today. Looks like I will have to wait and see what happens here tomorrow night with the donut hole.

That donut hole could be phantom given the situation.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, MossMan said:

What time do the first flakes land on the rock hard frozen ground up here tomorrow? 

7pm.  Just a guess.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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10 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

22F here. The clouds should thicken up by daybreak here so we could see a high near freezing tomorrow.  I figure my area will probably see 4-5” of snow tomorrow evening. 

22 here too!

#regional

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Looks like a sub 40 monthly average is a lock IMBY now.  That would make three months this season.  N, D, F.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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24 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

When you add it all up it looks really impressive.   Everyone gets snow.  

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_snow_kuchera-7996000.png

Dangerously close to leaving Victoria as the odd one out with nothing. It feels a lot like late Nov/early Dec 2022 when everything seemed to work out either north or south of here. Sometimes the pattern just gets into a rut for this area where all the snow-bearing setups align with Olympic shadowing. I wouldn't be surprised if 2 hours of transitional slush tomorrow is the best we do over the next 10 days. The late December stuff more than made up for it the last time, but I can't see that happening in March.

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23 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

For sure.    It will be cold the next 10 days.    That is a given now.

But that ridge at the end of the ECMWF run is making steady progress eastward.   We might actually have a pattern change coming into view.   

f1561f0d-d18b-4b88-b930-22477023589e.gif

I'll wait for the eps. Gefs isn't showing the eastward trend 

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Skipping out on my 3rd night of work. I probably could have gone in, but the low temps and potential for ice at 4:30am driving home is enough to keep me home. Plus the drive way was starting to look like an ice rink this evening so I'm sure I wouldn't have been able to make it up it.

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On 2/21/2023 at 6:55 AM, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

The only model left that gives PDX meaningful QPF tomorrow afternoon and evening is the GRAF. I think the best we can hope for up here is 1-2 spotty inches. Most areas will get skunked or get very little. Better odds south of us, but I am not convinced that anybody from Eugene to Salem will score big either. Much better odds at a widespread couple of inches though in my opinion.

Thursday sure looks cold for the Portland area either way. 

😅

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Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

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