PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[Cascadia_Wx]

Be on the lookout for more accurate readings in the Eastern Gorge this spring!

[SnarkyGoblin]

17 minutes ago, Phil said:

That’s one of the most prolific moist conveyors I’ve ever seen on satellite.

Another view of it:

 

[Cold Snap]

My parents have to fly out Tuesday morning at 11:30. Starting to wonder if they will be able to fly out at that time.

[MossMan]

My 16yr old Border Collie says it’s coming! And looking at the sky I would agree. And in case some wild CZ or deformation sets up at some point my fuel is fully stocked now! 

Edited February 25, 2023 by MossMan

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Going to be lots of more snow chances coming up this week. Here is what the 12z UKMET has for snow totals through Sunday 10pm and then the total snow accumulations through Friday 4am. Gonna be fun tracking all of this.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

36 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GEM for tonight and then for Tuesday system.

Gem looks to be on its own with snow amounts for most of western Washington. 

[BLI snowman]

7 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Update on this. 

 

"no discrepancy"

Changes sensor anyways....

[Deweydog]

GFS really wants to bullseye Clark County with tomorrow night’s deformation band…

[ShawniganLake]

7 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

My parents have to fly out Tuesday morning at 11:30. Starting to wonder if they will be able to fly out at that time.

It’ll be okay. 

[lowlandsnow]

HRRR suggests over 2 inches will have fallen at Seatac by 1 am 

[Doinko]

2 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

18 at PDX. First low in the teens there since January 2017.

Nice to finally break that streak. Longest on record without one. Also nice that we broke the no sub-30 high streak in December and Eugene's lack of a subfreezing high too, all of those happening last in January 2017 before this winter.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

Looks like my old neighborhood in SoCal got around 6" of rain yesterday with another 1.5" since midnight. The biggest 1-day total I ever had in my 28 years there was around 5".

Wonder how the new owners are doing with that crawl space that tends to flood in heavy rain?

That is unbelievable. I’m guessing local reservoirs will be full. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

It's looking like the clouds are going to put a nice cap on this cold air trapped at the surface today.

[RCola]

12z GEM seems a bit different than other guidance. A compromise between the 12z GFS and 6z Euro would be okay with me.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Record low at PDX this morning. 
 

Redmond, OR tied their record low of -2 from 2011. They also set a record low of 4 yesterday. 
 

32/12 here yesterday. Low of 17 this morning currently up to 23. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Still just 29 degrees here with cloudy sky's now.  Going to be much colder today than forecasted highs it's looking like 

[BLI snowman]

7 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Nice to finally break that streak. Longest on record without one. Also nice that we broke the no sub-30 high streak in December and Eugene's lack of a subfreezing high too, all of those happening last in January 2017 before this winter.

Good winter at this point, anything else that happens is just sweetener.

[Cold Snap]

Looks like I got down to 20 back at home this morning. 5th time getting down to at least 20 this winter.

[MikeInEverett]

Holding at 28 here with clouds coming in. Hard to believe it’ll get into the low 40s today but it’s still probably gonna happen somehow lol

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Wunderground point forecast says I get 9–15" IMBY.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Still just 29 degrees here with cloudy sky's now.  Going to be much colder today than forecasted highs it's looking like 

33 here and still sunny.  ECMWF shows the thicker clouds don't fill in out here until mid afternoon. 

[TeacherLori]

Was 23 in Lynnwood when I woke up at 6am this morning, and is currently 31 and overcast.

[Anti Marine Layer]

7 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Looks like I got down to 20 back at home this morning. 5th time getting down to at least 20 this winter.

When will you be over?

[TT-SEA]

It was 31 at SEA at 9 a.m. but the dewpoint is only 18.    Plenty of room for wet bulb coooling when the precip arrives.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

33 here and still sunny.  ECMWF shows the thicker clouds don't fill in out here until mid afternoon. 

I do not think the metro area will reach low 40's today. I guess they could be in the 38-42 range. I'd guess only 35 or so today here at most. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Getting reports of flurries in metro Vancouver, though nothing IMBY yet. Looks like it’s coming in early.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It was 31 at SEA at 9 a.m. but the dewpoint is only 18.    Plenty of room for wet bulb when the precip arrives.

It's ridiculous to leave out the Seattle area for the advisory.  

[Cold Snap]

6 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Getting reports of flurries in metro Vancouver, though nothing IMBY yet. Looks like it’s coming in early.

Yeah the Euro didn’t show precip making it to the Vancouver area until about 5pm.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Cold Snap said:

Yeah the Euro didn’t show precip making it to the Vancouver area until about 5pm.

It showed precip approaching the Vancouver area between 10 a.m. - 1 p.m.  

[MWG]

Nothing for below 1500'. 

[Weiner Warrior]

Fox 13 just reminded us the roads will be warm. No accumulation on the roads. It's over. Bring on Summer

[TT-SEA]

And the event is well underway up there between 2 - 5 p.m.

[Meatyorologist]

1 hour ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

This is a text book winter storm track for the Puget Sound.  Could be a major event. 

hmmmmmmm..

[TT-SEA]

What is amazing up north in the Vancouver area is that the ECMWF shows the event starting by noon today and yet tomorrow morning at 6 a.m. its still going strong up there while the main front has already cleared the Seattle area.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, Weiner Warrior said:

Fox 13 just reminded us the roads will be warm. No accumulation on the roads. It's over. Bring on Summer

Omg where do these idiots get this shitt. We just had a couple of nights with lows in the low to mid 20's and highs barely above freezing and some places not above freezing for 2 days. Roads are about as cold as they can get. The stupidity and inexperience in the weather forecasting world in this area is embarrassing.  

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF shows the measureable precip reaching the Seattle area by 9 or 10 p.m.    There will be probably be activity on the radar well ahead of this time but measureable precip doesn't start until later this evening.  

[TacomaWx]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF shows the measureable precip reaching the Seattle area by 9 or 10 p.m.    There will be probably be activity on the radar well ahead of this time but measureable precip doesn't start until later this evening.  

Flakes will probably start hours before the actual accumulation. Going to be a fun night and a fun few days. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Omg where do these idiots get this shitt. We just had a couple of nights with lows in the low to mid 20's and highs barely above freezing and some places not above freezing for 2 days. Roads are about as cold as they can get. The stupidity and inexperience in the weather forecasting world in this area is embarrassing.  

It doesn't even matter if it was 55 degrees today... road surfaces cool down very quickly when precip and cold air arrives.   If the temp/dewpoint support it then snow will stick to roads no matter what the temperatures were beforehand.  

[snow_wizard]

Fantastic 12z GFS!  Tonight looks great and Tuesday looks amazing.  After a bunch of snow and cold weather we're in a deep / cold trough over a week from now.

[TacomaWx]

Speaking of warm road temps…cliff mass https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2023/02/a-snowy-period-ahead-for-pacific.html?m=1