PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I’d take a February 2thousandsix redux. 

That was pretty similar to what we just had.   I think we are ahead of schedule compared to 2006 so that puts the March 8-10 event into late February if we stay on course.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

That was pretty similar to what we just had.   I think we are ahead of schedule compared to 2006 so that puts the March 8-10 event into late February if we stay on course.

That event was more impressive than this one for sure. Believe we pulled off a 35/23 day with some snow with that one. We will see though…analogs are never exact every year’s unique. 

[Deweydog]

Today’s spring fever talk is both very encouraging (for snow lovers) and very aggravating (for sensitive members). 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Deweydog said:

Today’s spring fever talk is both very encouraging (for snow lovers) and very aggravating (for sensitive members). 

Analogous to wishful fall posts once we get to August?     That sensitive member would never do that right?

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

That event was more impressive than this one for sure. Believe we pulled off a 35/23 day with some snow with that one. We will see though…analogs are never exact every year’s unique. 

I remember it was bone dry going into the February 2006 event but we had snow here on the back side.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

I remember it was bone dry going into the February 2006 event but we had snow here on the back side of that event.  

That was much more impressive considering it was late February with sub 40 highs as opposed to this recent one barely pulling off sub 40 highs a month earlier with less snow too. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

57F right now. Looks like we made it down to 27F.

[Cascadia_Wx]

7 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Today’s spring fever talk is both very encouraging (for snow lovers) and very aggravating (for sensitive members). 

Getting panties tied into a knot over reacts certainly reeks of stoicism

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

57F right now. Looks like we made it down to 27F.

Wut 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

That was much more impressive considering it was late February with sub 40 highs as opposed to this recent one barely pulling off sub 40 highs a month earlier with less snow too. 

Looked it up... I was wrong.    We had snow here on Valentines Day in 2006 which was before the arctic air arrived.  And it apparently it melted off before it got really cold because I distinctly remember a bare ground, sunshine, and a cold east wind.    We bottomed out at 35/17 on 2/18/06.   

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I remember it was bone dry going into the February 2006 event but we had snow here on the back side of that event.  

I remember specifically being in the Centralia Burgerville drive thru when it was snowing during that backside “event.”

2006’s retraction/retrogression was definitely more durable. More of a double shot with the initial shortwave on the 14th being quite similar to what we had over the weekend at the 500mb level. Then of course the big backdoor penetration on the 17th.

[Cascadia_Wx]

45/24 spread so far here today. It would actually be pretty awesome if we had a lot of temperatures in this range throughout the spring

[TigerWoodsLibido]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Wut 

Microclimate baby! Double downslope from the Kalapuyas & Pisgah along the SE valley, which warms up first and quite proficiently.

[Doinko]

4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Microclimate baby! Double downslope from the Kalapuyas & Pisgah along the SE valley, which warms up first and quite proficiently.

For a bit I thought you meant 47, but then I looked at the obs there and wow there are some warm temps right now.

[TT-SEA]

Someone doesn't like people having a feeling of spring when enjoying the warmth of the sun and an increasing sun angle.  Its just straight up statistics for them.   In reality... most sunny days beginning in February feel like spring unless there is arctic air or strong wind involved.   Hopefully we get a few days in April and May that feel like summer.    Last year we had numerous days in April and May that were straight up winter-like.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, Doinko said:

For a bit I thought you meant 47, but then I looked at the obs there and wow there are some warm temps right now.

Yeah, Alvadore on up to Junction City is a little cooler which gives the false impression that the city is several degrees cooler than it actually is.

[Doinko]

7 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

45/24 spread so far here today. It would actually be pretty awesome if we had a lot of temperatures in this range throughout the spring

Hopefully we see a lot of thunderstorms this spring/summer. The one on 7/1/2019 was very memorable, I remember a lot of lightning very nearby and then huge hail and heavy rain. Then another one that September had a tornado just a few miles away from here and then the next day brought nearly 2" of rain in an hour.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Hopefully we see a lot of thunderstorms this spring/summer. The one on 7/1/2019 was very memorable, I remember a lot of lightning very nearby and then huge hail and heavy rain. Then another one that September had a tornado just a few miles away from here and then the next day brought nearly 2" of rain in an hour.

Agreed. That was an amazing warm season overall, with a ton of convection but almost no fires thanks to the lack of high end heat and long dry spells Then we went straight into chilly weather by late September.

2019 was one of the coolest and more dynamic years overall of the last couple decades. I think it had the coolest annual average for PDX since 2011 (which was their coldest year since 1985). Featured two top tier cold months which is a very rare feat these days (February and October).

[TT-SEA]

The satellite makes it look like it would be warmer than it is... this looks like a pre-frontal, south wind set up with temps spiking in the warm sector ahead of an incoming system.   But the temps today are surprisingly cool given the fact that the upper levels are fairly warm.   Its probably related to a lack of mixing due to the ridge parked over us.  

[TacomaWx]

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Agreed. That was an amazing warm season overall, with a ton of convection but almost no fires thanks to the lack of high end heat and long dry spells Then we went straight into chilly weather by late September.

2019 was one of the coolest and more dynamic years overall of the last couple decades. I think it had the coolest annual average for PDX since 2011 (which was their coldest year since 1985). Featured two top tier cold months which is a very rare feat these days (February and October).

2019 was one of my favorite weather years in general. There was some dynamic stuff at times in 2021 and 2022…but 2019 had some amazing cold, snow, thunderstorms and a summer where it actually rained at times!

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

2019 was one of my favorite weather years in general. There was some dynamic stuff at times in 2021 and 2022…but 2019 had some amazing cold, snow, thunderstorms and a summer where it actually rained at times!

I am noticing a few more fir trees around here that have turned totally brown over the winter and have likely died... presumably from the extended heat and dry weather last fall.    We could probably use 2019-type summer after the last 3 summers.    The multi-year Nina did the complete opposite of what was expected.

[Cascadia_Wx]

11 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

2019 was one of my favorite weather years in general. There was some dynamic stuff at times in 2021 and 2022…but 2019 had some amazing cold, snow, thunderstorms and a summer where it actually rained at times!

Definitely. 2022 was probably our most dynamic year since then. The Jekyll/hyde February (very warm start and cold finish) cold April/May (record breaking snowstorm down here on 4/11), switching almost seamlessly to three months of record smashing mid-summer/early fall torching, then flipping back stormy for a few weeks followed by a cold November/December.

2021 should probably get a nod too because of the extreme heat in June, but it definitely was a more generally warm year than last year with less ups and downs.

Edited February 1 by Cascadia_Wx

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Definitely. 2022 was probably our most dynamic year since then. The Jekyll/hyde February (very warm start and cold finish) cold April/May (record breaking snowstorm down here on 4/11), switching almost seamlessly to three months of record smashing summer/early fall torching, then flipping back stormy for a few weeks followed by a cold November/December.

2021 should probably get a nod too because of the extreme heat in June, but it definitely was a more generally warm year than last year with less ups and downs.

We went from tracking when the first decent rains would fall to snow chances in less than 2 weeks this year.

[Deweydog]

8 minutes ago, Terreboner2 said:

Such a promising start to winter has turned into a big pile of Donkey-Dung!!!  I moved over here 4 years ago, ironically, right after the Feb. 2019 event.  I was hoping to get the monkey off my back of what Mat calls the "Josh curse", but it seems like my weather curse over here may continue this winter, and I'm betting for next as well.

Oh well, at least now we can sit back and enjoy Tim's every other day pictures of the flower buds popping up in all their FUKKING GLORY!!!!

[Meatyorologist]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I am noticing a few more fir trees around here that have turned totally brown over the winter and have likely died... presumably from the extended heat and dry weather last fall.    We could probably use 2019-type summer after the last 3 summers.    The multi-year Nina did the complete opposite of what was expected.

Bold of you to assume the Niña did any of the summer schenanigans.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Bold of you to assume the Niña did any of the summer schenanigans.

More related to what Nina didn't do... which is deliver cooler/wetter summers like it has in the past.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

44 minutes ago, Doinko said:

For a bit I thought you meant 47, but then I looked at the obs there and wow there are some warm temps right now.

Can y'all post the link to that map? I'm not able to find it and would like to bookmark it.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Can y'all post the link to that map? I'm not able to find it and would like to bookmark it.

Here you go:

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?obs=true&wfo=pqr

[Cascadia_Wx]

8 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Can y'all post the link to that map? I'm not able to find it and would like to bookmark it.

Mesowest maps? Here it is. Pretty good resource.

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?&zoom=11&scroll_zoom=false&center=45.520541158384134,-122.58338928222658&boundaries=false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false,false&tab=observation&hazard_opacity=70&obs=true&obs_type=air_temp&obs_popup=true&obs_density=10&obs_provider=ALL
 

Buyer beware though. It cuts both ways and can also be used to show when a station is an outlier.

[TT-SEA]

2 hours ago, MossMan said:

Tim is ready for his vacation! I forgot how much he dislikes snow after January! 

Although our nice weather is not really making me want to escape... I am looking forward to some warmth.   We get there on Saturday afternoon and it appears that we have timed it perfectly.  

[BLI snowman]

3 hours ago, Phil said:

Oh I’m sure it’ll be March. Textbook La Niña/+QBO evolution w/ IPWP MJO blowtorching the entire east coast mid/late Feb while W1 strat ongoing, then flip to cold/stormy 1st week of March.

Last 3 -ENSO/+QBO w/ W1 dominant Feb (2016/17, 2013/14, 2008/09) all had March as the dominant “winter” month out here.

But before that, mid/late Feb is gonna blowtorch massively out here. Possibly record breaking.  

And that could be our gangbusters window for a little wet AM snow on the hilltops! Should be pretty fun for all.

[WeatherGeek2022]

ready for hell on earth summer heat if winter is shying out on us.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2022 said:

ready for hell on earth summer heat if winter is shying out on us.

Summer weather has nothing to do with winter weather. 

[BLI snowman]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Definitely. 2022 was probably our most dynamic year since then. The Jekyll/hyde February (very warm start and cold finish) cold April/May (record breaking snowstorm down here on 4/11), switching almost seamlessly to three months of record smashing mid-summer/early fall torching, then flipping back stormy for a few weeks followed by a cold November/December.

2021 should probably get a nod too because of the extreme heat in June, but it definitely was a more generally warm year than last year with less ups and downs.

2021 was interesting in that the only cold anomalies of any consequence for the entire year just happened to coincide with winter and plenty of snow. Otherwise it was a torqued up torch almost throughout.

[WeatherGeek2022]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Summer weather has nothing to do with winter weather. 

never implied that it did

[BLI snowman]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Although our nice weather is not really making me want to escape... I am looking forward to some warmth.   We get there on Saturday afternoon and it appears that we have timed it perfectly.  

 

I'm gonna be in Hawaii from March 25-April 2! 

Was there April 7-13 last year, which had massive reverberations and arguably changed the entire course of our spring.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2022 said:

never implied that it did

Ahhhh... it reads differently with this info!

[TT-SEA]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

 

I'm gonna be in Hawaii from March 25-April 2! 

Was there April 7-13 last year, which had massive reverberations and arguably changed the entire course of our spring.

Oh boy... more April snow for us.

[BLI snowman]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Oh boy... more April snow for us.

Sun angles are a little more ideal on the 1st than the 11th, at least. Could at least mean a few extra minutes of stickage....

[Rubus Leucodermis]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Oh boy... more April snow for us.

I have already recorded snow IMBY every month since November. Let’s add March and April so it can be a six-month streak of months with snow!

[SnowySeeker50]

Currently 47 after a low of 31.1 this morning.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Someone doesn't like people having a feeling of spring when enjoying the warmth of the sun and an increasing sun angle.  Its just straight up statistics for them.   In reality... most sunny days beginning in February feel like spring unless there is arctic air or strong wind involved.   Hopefully we get a few days in April and May that feel like summer.    Last year we had numerous days in April and May that were straight up winter-like.

Trees are already budding here.  Even saw some stray blossoms today in college park.

Too f**king soon.

[Phil]

Good news is it’ll be 10 degrees with a strong wind in a couple days. Maybe it’ll shock things back into dormancy.

[Cold Snap]

Currently 46.9 after a high of 48 and low of 30.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Ended up with a 47/24 spread here today. Mostly sunny with a few high clouds at times, really pretty day. Looks like PDX put up a pretty crooked looking 50 for a high. Still a decent 50/27 spread there.

[Timmy Supercell]

11 minutes ago, Phil said:

Trees are already budding here.  Even saw some stray blossoms today in college park.

Too f**king soon.

A few patches on the ground are sprouting up but I wouldn't say it looks Spring like yet over here. 

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Ended up with a 47/24 spread here today. Mostly sunny with a few high clouds at times, really pretty day. Looks like PDX put up a pretty crooked looking 50 for a high. Still a decent 50/27 spread there.

52 here, Jess.

[Cascadia_Wx]

5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

52 here, Jess.

More mixing by the foothills id imagine. The bump at PDX was unexpected because they never went above 48 on the 5 minute obs.

[Timmy Supercell]

53 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

2021 was interesting in that the only cold anomalies of any consequence for the entire year just happened to coincide with winter and plenty of snow. Otherwise it was a torqued up torch almost throughout.

Maybe it was a little different in the east sides, up until June 2021, most of the months were either marginally above normal or average running (March '21 managed a cool month, mostly thanks to lows though). Nothing beats Jan to March 2015, each month +4-6 degrees from average. 

But I wouldn't wish for a 2021 even if it did not include the June-July heat.. that was one of the drier years in southern Oregon. 

[Gradient Keeper]

3 hours ago, TacomaWx said:

Still some ice in the pond here in federal way! 

I'd be busy fishing! I think.... Unless that's a sewage treatment pond. I heard they have some big 'brown' trout. Yeah bad Dad joke. Real bad!

00z GFS in 2 hours 39 minutes