August 2018 Observations and Discussion

[Hawkeye]

Other than the general boring weather, the one thing that stands out about this summer is the lack of wind.  It seems like we get one day with a nice breeze, then a week or two of dead calm, one more day with a breeze, then another week or two of dead calm.

[OKwx2k4]

Going 18+ hours with no AC when the climo mean is 90+ and a 28 day death ridge is a win any year. By the time I get back up to average, it's only 80s. That's how you cram summer into 10 weeks.

 

#WINNING

[Niko]

Finally, some wet weather will be moving in my area as a LP areas tracks close. Storms should be expected as well. Dries out on Friday w a gorgeous weekend on tap for SEMI.

[Stacsh]

Finally, some wet weather will be moving in my area as a LP areas tracks close. Storms should be expected as well. Dries out on Friday w a gorgeous weekend on tap for SEMI.

 

Looks like we might finally get some rain over here on the west side, but looking much better for your area.  I gave up watering my lawn a month ago and it is ruined.  

[Bryan1117]

Some surprise morning showers/downpours dropped around .45 of rain this morning in my backyard. The showers were very spotty in the deformation band in East Central Nebraska - however this made up some for the big miss yesterday.

[jaster220]

Models have backed off on the heavy precip for N IL, however, beneficial rains will be welcomed for parts of the area that have missed out on the rains last week.  Other than that, I'm looking forward to a well-timed, top notch weekend around Chicago for the Air and Water show.  You can't ask for better weather...clear skies, ample sunshine, slight lake breeze and temps near 80F along the beaches!  

 

Looking ahead, the system that has been on my calendar for about a couple weeks is now looking like it will impact the central/southern Plains early next week and then take a track up towards the GL's.  What is very intriguing and encouraging by the recent wetter pattern, is the fact that these systems are forming in the S Plains, esp where I predicted for a much different LRC pattern this coming Autumn.  I believe nature is giving us a clue as to where the storm track may be developing in a matter of only a few more weeks. 

 

Check out the latest 06z GEFS MSLP animation illustrating a S Plains storm track.  This, IMO, will be a common storm track in Oct/Nov.  This system has the potential to really dump some heavy rainfall and provide some severe wx potential.

 

Following this system, I'm looking for another autumn-like storm system to impact our sub forum around 8/28.

 

I like the pressure falls as it takes that NE track too. 

[jaster220]

Looks like we might finally get some rain over here on the west side, but looking much better for your area.  I gave up watering my lawn a month ago and it is ruined.  

 

When our mini-drought was going strong, all my grass went into hibernation and the weeds took over, crab grass sprouted, etc. Looks pretty sad now, but too late to mess with spreading weed killer this summer. Down along 94, the rebound is so dramatic, that the x-way rest area between Kzoo and BC that was solid brown is solid green again. Can you say yo-yo effect? Bi-polar pattern treatment's been horrid brutal on growing stuff around here this year. 

[Niko]

Looks like we might finally get some rain over here on the west side, but looking much better for your area.  I gave up watering my lawn a month ago and it is ruined.  

Hopefully, that verifies. What concerns me is that the upper level of the atmosphere is very dry, which might cause the precipitation to evaporate b4 reaching the ground as it moves north.

[Niko]

Today was a fairly humid day w more clouds than sun. I would say a blend of both, but more clouds.

[BrianJK]

Some very bizarre movement of these storm cells

[Iowawx]

In just the past 40 minutes, I have picked up 0.85 inches of rain. A very intense storm is now just sitting over my area.

[Iowawx]

Just keeps getting more impressive, now I have gotten 2.1 inches of rain since 5:50pm. Never seen anything like this before.

[OKwx2k4]

Just keeps getting more impressive, now I have gotten 2.1 inches of rain since 5:50pm. Never seen anything like this before.

That's some good rain. Reminds me of some of the rains at the end of July for me.

[Iowawx]

Since 5:50pm, I have gotten 2.55 inches of rain. Light rain is still coming down. Total so far for today is 3.24 inches.

[Tom]

Some very bizarre movement of these storm cells

Agree, I've been lucky sitting underneath that one lone cell in N Cook, literally pouring rain out of the sky relentlessly over the past 30-45 min.  Crazy cell with only a few claps of loud thunder.  No wind.

[Tom]

Not sure if its accurate, but a weather station just NW of me has reported 3.10" of rain from this cell.  Another wx station about 1/2 mi away has reported 1.10".

[Hawkeye]

I didn't think we'd get anything today, but cells and boundaries converged over Cedar Rapids this evening and parked for an hour+.  It wasn't torrential, but a solid hour of heavy to very heavy rain added up to 1.60".  I sure do love heavy rain... every bit as much as heavy snow.  Not surprisingly, the north side still did better... much better in some cases.  Just north of downtown northeastward to Hiawatha and Marion received 3-4".

 

Some neighbors of mine have young grandkids in town.  They live in Kuwait.  They were outside running around and playing in the heavy rain this evening.  I bet that was pretty fun for them.  I doubt they see much rain over there.

 

We may get a bit more tomorrow, and Monday could be a widespread soaker.

[Iowawx]

Final total for today here is 3.25 inches. 0.69 of that fell this morning, and 2.56 of that fell this evening, that fell in less than 2 hours. 

[Tom]

That cell last night dropped 2.34" in Mt Prospect, the city right next to me, where it just poured rain for about an hour.  Looks like both E IA/N IL may have a repeat scenario today where there will be hits and misses.  Lake breeze boundary may add some lift today across NE IL to spark better storm action.

[Stacsh]

That cell last night dropped 2.34" in Mt Prospect, the city right next to me, where it just poured rain for about an hour.  Looks like both E IA/N IL may have a repeat scenario today where there will be hits and misses.  Lake breeze boundary may add some lift today across NE IL to spark better storm action.

 

So lucky, what looked promising for here a couple days ago now looks like a dud.  D1 conditions continue.

[Niko]

Some very light rainfall currently, but nothing too extraordinary. So far, my area is abnormally dry.

[westMJim]

I was surprised to see the airport reported 0.17” of rain yesterday. Here at my house not one drop. In fact there has been much more rain at the airport then in NW Grand Rapids for more than a month now. For August GRR is now reporting 1.37” of rain while here at my house just 15 miles NW of the airport I only have receive 0.42” of rain.  And I tell you things are getting dry in my neck of the woods. 

[westMJim]

So far August 2018 has been very warm and dry.  If the current mean temperature of 75.3° were to hold for the 2^nd half that would put August 2018 as the 5^th warmest August in GR recorded history.  While it has been dry there have been many past Augusts that have been dryer than GRR official amount of 1.37”  Remember the longer it stays dry the warmer it can get in the day time and with clear skies and lower DPs the cooler it can get at night.

[Niko]

Believe it or not, I just turned on my Sprinklers, even though everything is wet outside. Thats how much it rained IMBY. Crazy!

[james1976]

Ill be in Buffalo NY today! Its been fairly warm and humid this whole trip and not much rain. Was in Allen Park MI couple nights ago and Cleveland last night. Pretty sure i was in Jaster and Niko's neighborhoods when i was traveling down I-94 in MI.

[BrianJK]

Agree, I've been lucky sitting underneath that one lone cell in N Cook, literally pouring rain out of the sky relentlessly over the past 30-45 min.  Crazy cell with only a few claps of loud thunder.  No wind.

 

Jealous - I got a few sprinkles over here.

[OKwx2k4]

Holy moly. Nice storms in SE KS.

Should start raining here soon. Hot, nasty, and miserably humid day otherwise. Yuk. Kinda snuck this one in on me at the last minute.

 

My area recovering quite nicely from the May-July "microdrought". Flood watches up.

[Tom]

I was awaken by the line of storms that came rolling through just past midnight last night.  A nice soaker across the area, esp those backyards who have missed out on the recent activity.

 

 

 

1.23" CHI-Wrigley Field
1.20" Waukegan
1.12" Manteno
0.75" Hinsdale
0.58" CHI-O'Hare
0.47" CHI-Sox Park

[Tom]

Yesterday, was the last day this year in Chicago, that the sun will rise prior to 6:00am.  Subtle signs we are heading closer and closer to Autumn.  Speaking of Autumn, yet another autumn-like storm system is likely to develop across the Plains and track up towards the GL's (GL's cutter?) late Sunday into Monday.  For several runs in a row, the Euro has been steadfast on the idea of heavy thunderstorms across the Plains/MW/GL's from this system.  Let's see if this will end up being a widespread soaking rainfall.

[Tom]

Is it too early to talk about snow???  Ya I know, it's summer, but I can't hold back!  The transition from summer into Autumn Winter into parts of the north, specifically, the Archipelago regions of Canada will be quite fast this year.  A strong signal from several long range models is suggesting that a deep trough will develop over the next 1-2 weeks across N Canada. This development is a big clue as we progress into met Autumn as the northern latitudes begin to show signs of the new LRC pattern.  I have always felt this coming cold season would be a big one, and the likelihood of the Hudson Bay vortex. or rather, the North American vortex, is going to be a player this season.  How do you develop cold???  You lay down snow early.  Now, it is still August so this snow will prob not stick around, but to see the models showing snow accumulating up there as we close out August is "fitting" for the evolution of the entire scope of the development of the "new" pattern.

 

Canadian...

 

 

GFS...

 

 

FV-3 GFS...

 

 

 

30-day EPS temp anomalies...Autumn is knocking on our door soon enough...N Canada looks chilly...

 

 

[Tom]

This is a gorgeous shot of a huge Haboob engulfing the mountains of SW Arizona during sunset...there have been some amazing images of the Monsoon this year.  Quite the active year I must say.

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

Since July 26th. I've been hit by nearly every storm in the southern US. At least 3 types of storm tracks and all under different circumstances. That is an extreme rarity.

[Niko]

Soggy, humid day so far w on and off showers. More rain is needed. Temps are in the 70s.

[jaster220]

Ill be in Buffalo NY today! Its been fairly warm and humid this whole trip and not much rain. Was in Allen Park MI couple nights ago and Cleveland last night. Pretty sure i was in Jaster and Niko's neighborhoods when i was traveling down I-94 in MI.

 

A belated wave to ya! as you cruised by. Marshall has two famous watering holes. Schuler's restaurant and The Dark Horse brewery and pub. A drop-in at either will not be regretted (next time?)

[james1976]

A belated wave to ya! as you cruised by. Marshall has two famous watering holes. Schuler's restaurant and The Dark Horse brewery and pub. A drop-in at either will not be regretted (next time?)

That would be great!

Cruising thru New York today on our way to Massachusetts. Its been fairly cool and cloudy with intermittent showers.

[St Paul Storm]

Dirty brownish yellow haze in the air today. I’m getting tired of no rain (D0 conditions here now), and smoke from the wildfires in Canada. This summer has been a complete dud. As Tom mentioned, let’s lay down some snow way to the north and change the pattern. I’m ready.

[Stormgeek]

Dirty brownish yellow haze in the air today. I’m getting tired of no rain (D0 conditions here now), and smoke from the wildfires in Canada. This summer has been a complete dud. As Tom mentioned, let’s lay down some snow way to the north and change the pattern. I’m ready.

I was just going to comment on this as well. This has been the most mundane summer in my recent memory. Absolutely no weather to speak of. Usually we can look forward to a propagating line of storms from out west coming into the TC, but there has been absolutely nothing. I am beyond tired of dry and hot.

[Tom]

[Stacsh]

I miss the 90's.  It seems like we had thunderstorms every week here in Michigan.  Been a long time for an active pattern of spring/summer storms here.  

[St Paul Storm]

I was just going to comment on this as well. This has been the most mundane summer in my recent memory. Absolutely no weather to speak of. Usually we can look forward to a propagating line of storms from out west coming into the TC, but there has been absolutely nothing. I am beyond tired of dry and hot.

Yeah the summers are usually filled with repeated MCS roaring in from the Dakotas in the overnight hours. We had a nice line of storms 2 weeks ago, but I can’t even remember the last good storm we had otherwise. I hate dry and hot wx.

 

You can really see that smoke on visible satellite imagery via GOES. Quite impressive. It’s been a wild fire season and I can’t blame ya for a pattern change into Autumn, or atleast some moisture.

I saw the view from GOES. Very impressive for sure. Nice to see on satellite, not so much when it’s draped over the city.