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Lets talk winter 2018/2019


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Of course the thing people need to remember about PNW winters is it only takes a day. A period completely dominated by eastern cold will be remembered by people in the PNW if a system sneaks through and drops some snow. 

 

While this is true to a degree, most of the "memorable" PNW lowland winters have not been dominated by eastern cold. In recent times, 2008-09, 2010-11, 2013-14, 2016-17, etc all had multiple and/or lengthy periods dominated by western troughing, and that was when the good stuff happened for the PNW.

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While this is true to a degree, most of the "memorable" PNW lowland winters have not been dominated by eastern cold. In recent times, 2008-09, 2010-11, 2013-14, 2016-17, etc all had multiple and/or lengthy periods dominated by western troughing, and that was when the good stuff happened for the PNW.

Sort of subjective...2008/09, 2010/11, and 2013/14 all had historic cold waves in the east and were colder than average winters overall, even here. Strong blocking increases the odds for cold just about everywhere.

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Sort of subjective...2008/09, 2010/11, and 2013/14 all had historic cold waves in the east and were colder than average winters overall, even here. Strong blocking increases the odds for cold just about everywhere.

Definitely, but the periods where the PNW scored were dominated by western troughing. It wasn't like a fluke one day storm in the midst of a torch.

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While this is true to a degree, most of the "memorable" PNW lowland winters have not been dominated by eastern cold. In recent times, 2008-09, 2010-11, 2013-14, 2016-17, etc all had multiple and/or lengthy periods dominated by western troughing, and that was when the good stuff happened for the PNW.

10-11 felt like the weakest of those. Torture for folks on the Oregon Coast. All other 3 were great.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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10-11 felt like the weakest of those. Torture for folks on the Oregon Coast. All other 3 were great.

Yeah, and 2010-11 was easily better than 2013-14 for western WA, and better than 2016-17 for some areas.

 

All of those winters had memorable, multiple cold/snow events for parts of the lowlands. The last totally east-dominated winter that managed anything good for the PNW was 2009-10 with the December blast...but that was snowless almost everywhere.

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Agreed, though I might throw a few 60s years in there as well.

 

I'm sure someone will remind us shortly that PNW summers were MUCH cooler in the 1960s-1980s. ;) But I don't think that means the same thing for winter analogs, in a broad sense.

Winters were easily colder in the 1960s-80s too. Facts are mean.

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Analogs

 

2014-15

2002-03

1991-92

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Analogs

 

2014-15

2002-03

1991-92

Yuck.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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I don't think a winter like those is in the cards.

Literally the 3 worst since I moved here in 1989. 02-03 never dropped below 534dm thicknesses. Was such a buzzkill my senior year of HS. Then I missed the snow the following year going to the Sun Bowl with the Ducks and we had the ice storm in Eugene on Jan 1 '04 with temps like 21F. Didn't think that was possible. Basically was Feb of 95-Dec 08 between significant PNW snow events for me.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Literally the 3 worst since I moved here in 1989. 02-03 never dropped below 534dm thicknesses. Was such a buzzkill my senior year of HS. Then I missed the snow the following year going to the Sun Bowl with the Ducks and we had the ice storm in Eugene on Jan 1 '04 with temps like 21F. Didn't think that was possible. Basically was Feb of 95-Dec 08 between significant PNW snow events for me.

 

I was kind of joking. Don't forget 2004-05. That was a huge dud too..

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I was kind of joking. Don't forget 2004-05. That was a huge dud too..

 

I remember a really wet troughy period in late August of 2004... we had over 5 inches of rain in a week.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I remember a really wet troughy period in late August of 2004... we had over 5 inches of rain in a week.  

 

Yes, I was camping over in S. Central Oregon that weekend and there was quite a bit of rain even over there on the dry side. Probably at least 1-2". Wiped out fire season, I remember my friend getting married at Silver Falls about a month later and it was very cool/wet and fall like in the middle of September. Was a pretty mild winter though, hardly any winter to speak of in the Willamette valley save one very brief cold snap in January. Whatcom County did well though.

 

Summer 2002 was hot and dry though with the infamous Biscuit Fire in SW Oregon. Dry weather lasted all the way through October that year. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Yes, I was camping over in S. Central Oregon that weekend and there was quite a bit of rain even over there on the dry side. Probably at least 1-2". Wiped out fire season, I remember my friend getting married at Silver Falls about a month later and it was very cool/wet and fall like in the middle of September. Was a pretty mild winter though, hardly any winter to speak of in the Willamette valley save one very brief cold snap in January. Whatcom County did well though.

 

Summer 2002 was hot and dry though with the infamous Biscuit Fire in SW Oregon. Dry weather lasted all the way through October that year.

January 2005 had a record breaking snowstorm here. Pretty much screwed everyone else of course.
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  • 2 weeks later...

January 2005 had a record breaking snowstorm here. Pretty much screwed everyone else of course.

That's what it takes for us North Sound folks to get REKKED by snow... everyone else to be screwed... A low hanging off the coast of Vancouver Island, stationary... Happened in early February 2017 as well..

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That's what it takes for us North Sound folks to get REKKED by snow... everyone else to be screwed... A low hanging off the coast of Vancouver Island, stationary... Happened in early February 2017 as well..

 

Another sign that winter is approaching...the return of Brennan. Welcome back!

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A forum for the end of the world.

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I'd actually be kind of curious, I bet he has forecasts archived online back to the early 2000s.

 

Has he ever once predicted warmth in the Northeast?

I've wondered this too. Curious if anybody knows.

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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I see Joe bastardi is going for your standard PNW blowtorch this winter. +5F. Enjoy.

I like Joe Bastardi, I've learned a lot from him and I love that he isn't afraid to make big time calls and predictions. He is though biased in some of his predictions. He almost always has a warm bias for the PNW and a cold bias for the East Coast. It's not surprising though because that's where he lives.

 

Also, they predicted a warm winter for the PNW in 16/17 and they busted. Every month was below average for both SEA and PDX.

 

SEA: -2.6/-4.1/-2.1 = -2.9

PDX: -3.2/-7.9/-3.0 = -4.7

 

December_February_2016_17_update.png

http://i64.tinypic.com/2epr8zr.jpg

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I like Joe Bastardi, I've learned a lot from him and I love that he isn't afraid to make big time calls and predictions. He is though biased in some of his predictions. He almost always has a warm bias for the PNW and a cold bias for the East Coast. It's not surprising though because that's where he lives.

 

Also, they predicted a warm winter for the PNW in 16/17 and they busted. Every month was below average for both SEA and PDX.

 

SEA: -2.6/-4.1/-2.1 = -2.9

PDX: -3.2/-7.9/-3.0 = -4.7

 

December_February_2016_17_update.png

http://i64.tinypic.com/2epr8zr.jpg

I’m not so sure if he’s simply biased towards the east because that’s where he lives. Seems more probable that he’s trying to suck east coast snow lovers into subscribing to his website. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that he almost always has some of the big east coast markets covered with promises of cold and snow.
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:lol:

 

RKbGx06.jpg

Southerly flow

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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I'd actually be kind of curious, I bet he has forecasts archived online back to the early 2000s.

 

Has he ever once predicted warmth in the Northeast? 

I don't know for sure, but I think she is talking about him in these tweets:

 

  1. default_profile_bigger.png Becky @BeccaLynch4 Aug 29
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  1. “La Niña, Neutral and El Niño have very different effects on east coast winters”. Really??That’s interesting, because I went back over every one of your winter forecasts since 2010 and you have predicted a cold and snowy winter every single year for the last 8 in a row now
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default_profile_bigger.pngBecky @BeccaLynch4Aug 29
Follow Follow @BeccaLynch4FollowingFollowing @BeccaLynch4UnfollowUnfollow @BeccaLynch4BlockedBlocked @BeccaLynch4UnblockUnblock @BeccaLynch4PendingPending follow request from @BeccaLynch4CancelCancel your follow request to @BeccaLynch4
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Apparently in your world they really don’t have different effects on winter because no matter the ENSO state your conclusion is always the same, year after year...cold and snowy for the east coast

11:17 AM - 29 Aug 2018
 
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      default_profile_bigger.pngAnthony Alexion @adalexion1 Aug 29
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      Ah...but you see....they are vastly different, bcs they bring different *types* of cold and snowy winters...not all cold and snowy winters are alike, you see....;-)

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I was curious, so I looked back.

 

JB has indeed forecasted cold/snowy eastern winters for 10 out of the last 12 years, and since he moved to WeatherBell, he’s forecasted cold eastern winters every single year.:lol: Those two warmer forecasts were when he was back at accuweather (2007/08, 2010/11).

 

He’s either losing his mind, or he’s trying to sucker naive eastern snow weenies into buying subscriptions. Back in his earlier days at accuweather (before all this online subscription/social media madness) he was much more balanced, with little if any discernible bias. I think now that his success depends on a high number of online subscribers and fanfare, he needs to hype cold/snow to compete with other vendors. The timing matches perfectly.

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Sooner or later people will catch on to JB, but then again people still buy the Farmers Almanac too :P

I agree with those who have said he is just doing it for clicks to generate revenue. Still, 8 years in a row and 10/12 is something else. 

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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Looking at the latest we still have a neutral to slighly negative PDO look. Sea surface temperature anomalies have dipped a little bit and are near neutral over most of the ENSO regions. It appears that a downwelling kelvin wave will increase temperatures over the next month. 

Any other thoughts?
Also, anybody have the link to that image that shows the predicted wind anomalies in the ENSO regions (in terms of westerly or easterly anomalies)?

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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Looking at the latest we still have a neutral to slighly negative PDO look. Sea surface temperature anomalies have dipped a little bit and are near neutral over most of the ENSO regions. It appears that a downwelling kelvin wave will increase temperatures over the next month.

 

Any other thoughts?

Also, anybody have the link to that image that shows the predicted wind anomalies in the ENSO regions (in terms of westerly or easterly anomalies)?

The PDO looks dormant/irrelevant to me this year, to be honest. As a forcing mechanism, its importance is questionable even in its strongest phases. I personally see more of a +PMM look with the broad Pacific ITCZ and expanded NH flank of the IPWP in conjunction with the South Pacific cold tongue.

 

I think the themes this autumn/early winter are increased potency of dateline forcing, -QBO at/below 50mb (with the +QBO/westerly shear downwelling from 30mb) a much colder Atlantic/AMO, and the onset of solar minimum. An interesting combo for sure, which could open the door to a frontloaded winter in the West.

 

The system state may resemble a weak west-based +ENSO event this winter, even if the SSTAs doesn’t meet the official criteria for an El Niño. My suspicion is that the official ONI criteria for El Niño will not be met until sometime in early 2019 (possibly in the J/F/M timeframe).

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The PDO looks dormant/irrelevant to me this year, to be honest. As a forcing mechanism, its importance is questionable even in its strongest phases. I personally see more of a +PMM look with the broad Pacific ITCZ and expanded NH flank of the IPWP in conjunction with the South Pacific cold tongue.

 

I think the themes this autumn/early winter are increased potency of dateline forcing, -QBO at/below 50mb (with the +QBO/westerly shear downwelling from 30mb) a much colder Atlantic/AMO, and the onset of solar minimum. An interesting combo for sure, which could open the door to a frontloaded winter in the West.

 

The system state may resemble a weak west-based +ENSO event this winter, even if the SSTAs doesn’t meet the official criteria for an El Niño. My suspicion is that the official ONI criteria for El Niño will not be met until sometime in early 2019 (possibly in the J/F/M timeframe).

My point in highlighting it is to say that at least from a PDO perspective this isn't going to be like the blob years or anything. Those days are done. 

 

Anyway, definitely looks to be a west focused event, whether it reaches official criteria or not. Typically those kinds of winters are less good for the west but many are front-loaded, so I agree with you there too. 

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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My point in highlighting it is to say that at least from a PDO perspective this isn't going to be like the blob years or anything. Those days are done.

 

Anyway, definitely looks to be a west focused event, whether it reaches official criteria or not. Typically those kinds of winters are less good for the west but many are front-loaded, so I agree with you there too.

Yeah, no warm SST “blob” this year, but even if there was a blob, I’m not sure it would matter. In my opinion, it was mostly a result of the pattern, rather than a forcing. Those cold extratropical waters don’t influence the atmosphere in the same way the tropical waters do.

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Yeah, no warm SST “blob” this year, but even if there was a blob, I’m not sure it would matter. In my opinion, it was mostly a result of the pattern, rather than a forcing. Those cold extratropical waters don’t influence the atmosphere in the same way the tropical waters do.

While I agree that the extent was probably overplayed by many and the atmosphere dominated, there was research that suggested that the blob was somewhat of a self-sustaining feature. So in that sense I don't think it was purely a result of atmospheric forcing and once it developed it helped itself. 

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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I’m not so sure if he’s simply biased towards the east because that’s where he lives. Seems more probable that he’s trying to suck east coast snow lovers into subscribing to his website. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that he almost always has some of the big east coast markets covered with promises of cold and snow.

Yeah, that's probably the reason why. He's also a good salesman. I subscribed to a weather bell free trial a couple years ago but never renewed it. Now we have free Euro data on weather.us that we can access.

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Looking at the latest we still have a neutral to slighly negative PDO look. Sea surface temperature anomalies have dipped a little bit and are near neutral over most of the ENSO regions. It appears that a downwelling kelvin wave will increase temperatures over the next month. 

 

Any other thoughts?

Also, anybody have the link to that image that shows the predicted wind anomalies in the ENSO regions (in terms of westerly or easterly anomalies)?

I get it from Dr. Ventrice here:

 

http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/hovmollers.html

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Another sign that winter is approaching...the return of Brennan. Welcome back!

 

It's always good to be back! it seems my offseason from here are getting longer and longer though... Family and kids will do that to you... Unless your Tim of course and have several clones walking around. 

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