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Lets talk winter 2018/2019


Black Hole

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My point in highlighting it is to say that at least from a PDO perspective this isn't going to be like the blob years or anything. Those days are done. 

 

Anyway, definitely looks to be a west focused event, whether it reaches official criteria or not. Typically those kinds of winters are less good for the west but many are front-loaded, so I agree with you there too. 

 

I am really hoping Socal gets a good amount of rain this year after being so ridiculously dry last year with Los Angeles having its 3rd driest winter on record (July 1 - June 30).

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While I agree that the extent was probably overplayed by many and the atmosphere dominated, there was research that suggested that the blob was somewhat of a self-sustaining feature. So in that sense I don't think it was purely a result of atmospheric forcing and once it developed it helped itself.

I've long been of this school of thought. Been far too much evidence presented to me to think differently.

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With the exception of 2016 and maybe 2012 though, in JBs defense, has not the EC been the coldest and snowiest area in the US in late winter for well over the last decade?

 

The last time the EC as a whole generally had the coldest winter anomalies was probably in 2010-11, with 2014-15 having the coldest anomalies across the northeastern quadrant of the country. The last few have been mild overall though.

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The last time the EC as a whole generally had the coldest winter anomalies was probably in 2010-11, with 2014-15 having the coldest anomalies across the northeastern quadrant of the country. The last few have been mild overall though.

That's right. I do remember getting aggravated over him selling a cold January or February over the EC as his proof that he was right when the seasonal maps he made weren't even close. There were several of those years after 2010 if I recall. I stand corrected.

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At this point I'm going for a cold Oct through early Jan for the NW.  I don't have any kind of a read after that yet.  An early season cold wave or two looks like a very good bet to me.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Referring to the El Nino topic, Klaus Wolter thinks that an El Nino remains unlikely this year:

 

"  "Compared to last month, the updated (July-August) MEI remained flat at +0.13, ending up right in the middle of ENSO-neutral rankings. This means that not a single season has reached El Niño conditions in 2018. Looking at the nearest 12 rankings (+6/-6) in this season, and excluding all cases that departed by more than 0.4 standard deviations in the changes from the previous month as well as three months earlier (April-May), there are eight analogues to the situation this season: 1953,'59,'69,'80,'81,'90,'00, and '03. Six of these cases remained ENSO-neutral, while only one ('69) briefly reached El Niño conditions, and one slipped back into La Niña'00). This confirms last month's assessment that El Niño remains "very unlikely" in 2018"

 

"With the MEI showing ENSO-neutral conditions, four key anomalies in the MEI component fields flag La Niña, compared to only one for El Niño. Key anomalies refer to values in excess of one standard deviation, or one sigma in support of either ENSO phase (compare to loadings figure).

Significant positive anomalies (coinciding with high negative loadings) denote high sea level pressure (P) anomalies over the eastern equatorial Pacific, southerly wind anomalies (V) to the north of the Equator and south of Hawai'i, and unusually warm temperatures (S and A) northeast of Australia. All of these anomalies are indicators of La Niña.

On the other hand, westerly wind anomalies (U) along and north of the Equator from the Maritime Continent to the dateline flag emerging El Niño conditions."

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At this point I'm going for a cold Oct through early Jan for the NW. I don't have any kind of a read after that yet. An early season cold wave or two looks like a very good bet to me.

Do you mean cold each month from Oct-Jan? Or just overall when averaging them together?

 

I suspect the latter is more doable than the former. But this is one of those funky years that could flip around completely upon the seasonal termination of EHEM monsoonal forcing in November.

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Referring to the El Nino topic, Klaus Wolter thinks that an El Nino remains unlikely this year:

 

"

"

Compared to last month, the updated (July-August) MEI remained flat at +0.13, ending up right in the middle of ENSO-neutral

rankings

. This means that not a single season has reached El Niño conditions in 2018. Looking at the nearest 12 rankings (+6/-6) in this season, and excluding all cases that departed by more than 0.4 standard deviations in the changes from the previous month as well as three months earlier (April-May), there are eight analogues to the situation this season: 1953,'59,'69,'80,'81,'90,'00, and '03. Six of these cases remained ENSO-neutral, while only one ('69) briefly reached El Niño conditions, and one slipped back into La Niña'00). This confirms last month's assessment that El Niño remains "very unlikely" in 2018"

 

"With the MEI showing ENSO-neutral conditions, four key anomalies in the MEI component fields flag La Niña, compared to only one for El Niño. Key anomalies refer to values in excess of one standard deviation, or one sigma in support of either ENSO phase (compare to loadings figure).

Significant positive anomalies (coinciding with high negative loadings) denote high sea level pressure (P) anomalies over the eastern equatorial Pacific, southerly wind anomalies (V) to the north of the Equator and south of Hawai'i, and unusually warm temperatures (S and A) northeast of Australia. All of these anomalies are indicators of La Niña.

On the other hand, westerly wind anomalies (U) along and north of the Equator from the Maritime Continent to the dateline flag emerging El Niño conditions."

Funny that all of those years occurred near solar maximum. The only good QBO analog there is 2003, and FWIW, that year also had hurricane Isabel, which is somewhat analogous to Florence.

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Do you mean cold each month from Oct-Jan? Or just overall when averaging them together?

 

I suspect the latter is more doable than the former. But this is one of those funky years that could flip around completely upon the seasonal termination of EHEM monsoonal forcing in November.

 

I just meant in general.  Probably some good variability in there.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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NE Pacific has been cooling off a bit in the last week.

 

cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

 

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

Pretty robust -PDO there IMO.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Amazingly it appears this may be another very short minus QBO episode.  It has already gone positive down to 20mb and is rapidly descending.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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To be honest I can't really imagine a winter better than 2016-17 in the PNW, and I do not think this year will come close to that one. We'll probably end up viewing that one as a 21st century high water mark.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I am not being facetious, but when was the last time we had an October-early January period which was dominated by cold anomalies? 1993? 1985? The idea just seems far fetched...

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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It's been forecast here MANY times.

 

I'm kind of feeling a coolish October this year though. That month has been mild/torchy most of the past decade. 2009 and 2013 were the only ones I can recall being cool.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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To be honest I can't really imagine a winter better than 2016-17 in the PNW, and I do not think this year will come close to that one. We'll probably end up viewing that one as a 21st century high water mark.

I’m bookmarking this s**t. #bumptrollmaterial

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I’m bookmarking this s**t.

 

In the past 25 years 10 days in December 2008 and 2016-17 kind of stand alone regionally. Now juxtapose that to any previous 25 year period and well...It kind of speaks for itself.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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In the past 25 years 10 days in December 2008 and 2016-17 kind of stand alone regionally. Now juxtapose that to any previous 25 year period and well...It kind of speaks for itself.

That’s the past. It doesn’t necessarily predict the future any more than our great snow drought from 1998-2008 did.

 

Then we broke the all time record from 1898-99 in 2009, in the face of UHI and a terrible location for snow (DCA).

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That’s the past. It doesn’t necessarily predict the future any more than our great snow drought from 1998-2008 did.

 

Then we broke the all time record from 1898-99 in 2009, in the face of UHI and a terrible location for snow (DCA).

 

Something changed in our climate almost 30 years ago. It is pretty astonishing. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Something changed in our climate almost 30 years ago. It is pretty astonishing.

Yeah, the climate tends to do that. A lot. ;)

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In the past 25 years 10 days in December 2008 and 2016-17 kind of stand alone regionally. Now juxtapose that to any previous 25 year period and well...It kind of speaks for itself.

Dec 2008 was pretty boring south of Salem though so that might not be the best comparison. I guess you're right in the sense that we haven't seen much of a regionally amazing winter. 13-14 was pretty good though.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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  • 3 weeks later...

Any new thoughts anybody?

Not really, still leaning towards a frontloaded winter or a sandwich winter (colder at the bookends, warm in the middle?). The analogs suggest the highest likelyhood of a cold and/or stormy pattern for the west is during the months of November and/or December, with March being a wildcard and January/February leaning warmer.

 

As usual, the big unknown is how the stratosphere/PV behaves..the analog years that bucked climo all featured significant disruptions to the polar vortex, which affected tropical forcing via the enhancement of the mass circulation/static stability. We saw this happen last winter with the SSW in early February that ended up reversing the pattern of the last 5+ years (albeit briefly) and rescuing the winter for much of the West.

 

So if any large SSW events occur, especially before New Years (given the antecedent conditions in the tropics right now), it could definitely change the equation very quickly under the weaker ENSO/lowfreq forcing components).

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Any new thoughts anybody?

Guessing the goodies for PDX north sometime in Nov-Dec with a possible dip of said goodies below 45N once but pretty marginal.

 

Torch from mid Jan to the end of March/April.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Any new thoughts anybody?

I'm eyeing the December 5-20 period for the first Arctic Blast of the season. Though there might be some leeway with this and it could come a little sooner or later. December quite frankly could be downright EPIC. January I'm seeing it stormy with possible atmospheric river events. Then I see one last period with a good opportunity for Arctic Blast around the January 25 to February 10 time frame.

 

So to summarize, I'm looking at two separate 15 day windows where we have a great shot at cold/snowy weather here in the PNW.

 

December 5 to December 20.

January 25 to February 10.

 

My reasoning behind all of this has to do with analogs and weather cycles I've been looking at. I'll go more in depth later this month.

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I'm eyeing the December 5-20 period for the first Arctic Blast of the season. Though there might be some leeway with this and it could come a little sooner or later. December quite frankly could be downright EPIC. January I'm seeing it stormy with possible atmospheric river events. Then I see one last period with a good opportunity for Arctic Blast around the January 25 to February 10 time frame.

 

So to summarize, I'm looking at two separate 15 day windows where we have a great shot at cold/snowy weather here in the PNW.

 

December 5 to December 20.

January 25 to February 10.

 

My reasoning behind all of this has to do with analogs and weather cycles I've been looking at. I'll go more in depth later this month.

Get him, Jesse!

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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  • 3 weeks later...

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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  • 2 weeks later...

I am not hoping for a 2013-14 repeat as that year was way too dry in Socal.

This won’t be a 2013/14 repeat. Far from it, IMO.

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