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Temperature extremes likely to be broken


Scott

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Now that there is a thread of which temperature extremes that likely won't be broken again, what would you say the state (or maybe others) temperatures are that likely will get broken?  Some records are such anomalies, but some are likely to be broken.

 

As far as heat records go, I think the state record for Utah (117 on 7/5/1985 at St George) will likely be broken sometime in the near future (within the next decade or two).  Several places right near the border have had temperatures hotter than that and the record isn't that far out of the ordinary.  

 

I consider the Utah record the most likely high temperature to be broken in the near future.  

 

106 in Connecticut on 7/15/1995 is another one that I could see getting broken sometime in the near future. 

 

As far as cities go, I believe the 107 in Salt Lake City and the 106 in Grand Junction (Colorado) are likely to be broken sometime in the near future.  

 

I can't think of many State cold records that are likely to be broken anytime soon, but time will tell.

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I fully expect Oregon to break a high temp record in the next few years if the strong west ridge pattern persists every summer. Gotta think the 108F all time high here will eventually fall soon.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

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  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
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     I agree with you Scott on Utah.  The Lytle Ranch station could probably reach 118-120 in the near future.  It probably has gotten that hot, just that there was no station there...

 

Yes, and even during the period of record, there is still a lot of missing data in the summer.  July 2017 was a really hot one in the region and all the data is missing for that month.  The hot summer of 2012 also had a lot of missing data.  There was a good chance that Lytle Ranch could have broken the record or at least come close on 7/8/2017 had the weather station been operating.  

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Now that there is a thread of which temperature extremes that likely won't be broken again, what would you say the state (or maybe others) temperatures are that likely will get broken? Some records are such anomalies, but some are likely to be broken.

 

As far as heat records go, I think the state record for Utah (117 on 7/5/1985 at St George) will likely be broken sometime in the near future (within the next decade or two). Several places right near the border have had temperatures hotter than that and the record isn't that far out of the ordinary.

 

I consider the Utah record the most likely high temperature to be broken in the near future.

 

106 in Connecticut on 7/15/1995 is another one that I could see getting broken sometime in the near future.

 

As far as cities go, I believe the 107 in Salt Lake City and the 106 in Grand Junction (Colorado) are likely to be broken sometime in the near future.

 

I can't think of many State cold records that are likely to be broken anytime soon, but time will tell.

Much harder to break cold records with UHI, so that’s probably a safer bet. If it’s going to happen, it will probably be somewhere in Midwest or Northeast where urbanization has leveled off (and those regions are also closer to the climatological cold vortex location).

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Perhaps North Carolina or Virginia as well. The 110 readings for these states are dubious, which leaves several 109 readings on various dates. It is interesting that PA/NJ/WV have legitimately reached 110, but VA and NC have not.

Too much humidity for VA/NC to hit 110*F. See DC..all time record there is only 106*F while Martinsburg WV (well NW beyond the Blue Ridge) has hit 110*F.

 

Higher dewpoints keep a firm lid on high temperatures around these parts. Very hard to surpass 105*F.

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Much harder to break cold records with UHI, so that’s probably a safer bet.

 

 

That's true for cities, but a majority of cold records (and all of the ones out west) were recorded in places where UHI shouldn't be a problem.

 

None of the "cities" that hold the cold records in the Western States have a population of more than 200, unless you discount the Logan Pass reading in Montana.   West Yellowstone has a population of about 1353, making it by far the largest populated area with a state record low in the West.

 

A lot of other areas of the US also have nearly un-populated places holding the cold records.  The biggest exception I can think of are Tallahassee Florida.

 

Too much humidity for VA/NC to hit 110*F. 

 

 

It might be possible, but it would take a powerful heatwave.  Parts of Louisiana and Texas not far from the coast have hit 110 with high humidities.

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That's true for cities, but a majority of cold records (and all of the ones out west) were recorded in places where UHI shouldn't be a problem.

 

None of the "cities" that hold the cold records in the Western States have a population of more than 200, unless you discount the Logan Pass reading in Montana. West Yellowstone has a population of about 1353, making it by far the largest populated area with a state record low in the West.

Interesting. Definitely different out West. Around here the majority of the cold records have been UHI’d out of contention, though some all-time monthly records have still been set locally in recent years (Feb 2015, Mar 2014).

 

The trends in the NPAC cell network since the 19th century have really hurt the West in the cold department relative to the East, it seems.

 

It might be possible, but it would take a powerful heatwave. Parts of Louisiana and Texas not far from the coast have hit 110 with high humidities.

Hmm..when and where exactly were those temperatures recorded? Sounds dubious if it’s near the coast.

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Hmm..when and where exactly were those temperatures recorded? Sounds dubious if it’s near the coast. 

 

 

September 2000; Corpus Christi to Louisiana. 

 

heat.jpg

 

Houston Airport is about 30 miles from the coast and hit 109 on 9/5/2000, but several areas slightly inland were in the 110-113 range, including the suburbs of the Greater Houston Area.   

 

Corpus Christi is right on the coast and hit 109.  Several stations not far inland were 110 or higher. 

 

Almost all of the stations operating in that region recorded their all time record highs then.

 

That region is usually humid as well.  

 

According to Wikipedia, 140 people died during the heatwave:

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000_Southern_United_States_heat_wave

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What's the official record for California these days now that the 1917 Death Valley reading of 134º is no longer considered valid? 

 

 

129 on the following dates:

 

7/18/1960

7/18/1998

7/20/2005

7/7/2007

7/1/2013

 

A ranger recorded a 131 at Badwater during the 6/1994 heatwave.  It is probably accurate though not official since it wasn't a weather station.

 

Furnace Creek Visitor Center hit 131 last year, but I don't know if it was ever accepted as official.

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September 2000; Corpus Christi to Louisiana.

 

heat.jpg

 

Houston Airport is about 30 miles from the coast and hit 109 on 9/5/2000, but several areas slightly inland were in the 110-113 range, including the suburbs of the Greater Houston Area.

 

Corpus Christi is right on the coast and hit 109. Several stations not far inland were 110 or higher.

 

Almost all of the stations operating in that region recorded their all time record highs then.

 

That region is extremely humid as well.

 

According to Wikipedia, 140 people died during the heatwave:

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000_Southern_United_States_heat_wave

What were the PWAT/theta-e values over the area? The amount of energy required to generate 110*F+ ambient temperatures with dewpoints well into the 70s under the Gulf moisture pump would be simply outrageous.

 

If it was as humid as is climatologically typical, it would translate to almost 140*F in a drier adiabatic profile like that of Phoenix, AZ, if not higher.

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What were the PWAT/theta-e values over the area? The amount of energy required to generate 110*F+ ambient temperatures with dewpoints well into the 70s under the Gulf moisture pump would be simply outrageous.

 

If it was as humid as is climatologically typical, it would translate to almost 140*F in a drier adiabatic profile like that of Phoenix, AZ, if not higher.

 

This was a drought situation. I'm sure dry air was advecting from the desert region to the west, and the lower-than-normal soil moisture and ET profile along the coast wasn't doing much to moisten up the lower levels. Add strong sensible heating under a fat ridge = record heat. Otherwise, like you're saying, 110 degree readings in that region wouldn't happen. 

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What were the PWAT/theta-e values over the area? The amount of energy required to generate 110*F+ ambient temperatures with dewpoints well into the 70s under the Gulf moisture pump would be simply outrageous.

 

If it was as humid as is climatologically typical, it would translate to almost 140*F in a drier adiabatic profile like that of Phoenix, AZ, if not higher. 

 

Looking through the records, some of the heat indexes approached 120 in some areas, but didn't approach 140.  Dew points on those days ranged from 65-75 or lower. 

 

Houston is typically one of the most humid cities in the US, but it was drier than normal during this time period.   After looking through the records, the humidities, dew points, and heat indexes were lower than I thought they would be.

 

Still, it was a very impressive heat wave. 

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This was a drought situation. I'm sure dry air was advecting from the desert region to the west, and the lower-than-normal soil moisture and ET profile along the coast wasn't doing much to moisten up the lower levels. Add strong sensible heating under a fat ridge = record heat. Otherwise, like you're saying, 110 degree readings in that region wouldn't happen.

Ah, I wasn’t aware of the drought. It makes much more sense to me now. Less work going to evaporation. So dews/PWATs were probably lower.

 

We don’t get extreme droughts here (save the 1930s) so there really isn’t any opportunity to test 110+ nowadays. Plenty of record high minimums, though.

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Looking through the records, some of the heat indexes approached 120 in some areas, but didn't approach 140. Dew points on those days ranged from 65-75 or lower.

 

Houston is typically one of the most humid cities in the US, but it was drier than normal during this time period. After looking through the records, the humidities, dew points, and heat indexes were lower than I thought they would be.

 

Still, it was a very impressive heat wave.

Thanks for the info.

 

And sorry, I was talking about the ambient temperatures should moisture be extracted (the lack of moisture in the desert Southwest, for example, is the reason for the hot summer temperatures there).

 

A warm, humid airmass in the SE US holds just as much potential heat as a hot, dry airmass in the desert Southwest. The only difference is that more of said heat is in latent form.

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I think there's still a shot for some cold records to fall in the interior US in the next decade or so.

        I do think it is possible for Texas to beat its -23 readings from 1933 and 1899.  The TX/OK panhandle is good area for a record-shattering coldwave to hit since its all-time lows are relatively mild...

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Now that there is a thread of which temperature extremes that likely won't be broken again, what would you say the state (or maybe others) temperatures are that likely will get broken?  Some records are such anomalies, but some are likely to be broken.

 

As far as heat records go, I think the state record for Utah (117 on 7/5/1985 at St George) will likely be broken sometime in the near future (within the next decade or two).  Several places right near the border have had temperatures hotter than that and the record isn't that far out of the ordinary.  

 

I consider the Utah record the most likely high temperature to be broken in the near future.  

 

106 in Connecticut on 7/15/1995 is another one that I could see getting broken sometime in the near future. 

 

As far as cities go, I believe the 107 in Salt Lake City and the 106 in Grand Junction (Colorado) are likely to be broken sometime in the near future.  

 

I can't think of many State cold records that are likely to be broken anytime soon, but time will tell

     Conn. has good potential to be broken in the future.  Mass. has reached 107 on 8/4/1975 at New Bedford and Chester(bit overexposed though).  It has also reached 106 in NH and another 106 in MA(7/4/1911).  A very good chance Connecticut has...

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     Conn. has good potential to be broken in the future.  Mass. has reached 107 on 8/4/1975 at New Bedford and Chester(bit overexposed though).  It has also reached 106 in NH and another 106 in MA(7/4/1911).  A very good chance Connecticut has...

 

       I dont think that the 107 at Chester on 8/4/1975 is legit, among many other of its monthly high temp extremes.  July 1982 was not a record setting July yet it says Chester reached 106 on that month.  Highly questionable imo.

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Another really interesting thread!

Living in SLC myself, I agree with the opening statement that the 107F record here is likely to fall at some point. We have had several heatwaves the last few years that might have done it if they occurred at the right time. I don't foresee smashing it, but a 108-109F seems possible.  

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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Last year in PDX the record might have been broken if not for excessive smoke. The whole west being covered with smoke has probably prevented some record highs. That may be a bigger factor in the future with ever larger fires.  

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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The Oregon record high may be harder to break than people realize because it is likely a dubious record. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I do think it is possible for Texas to beat its -23 readings from 1933 and 1899. The TX/OK panhandle is good area for a record-shattering coldwave to hit since its all-time lows are relatively mild...

Yes. I think the right event simply hasn't happened yet to get it down there. I think Kansas and far northeastern Oklahoma have chances too. I think NE Oklahoma will beat -31 in my lifetime.

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Yes. I think the right event simply hasn't happened yet to get it down there. I think Kansas and far northeastern Oklahoma have chances too. I think NE Oklahoma will beat -31 in my lifetime.

 

Didn't the February 2011 record break a record from 1930? I would say that is an unlikely record to be broken. Part of what aided that record was the very deep snow cover. You aren't going to get near that record without at least 6" of snow cover. 

 

Some things that mess with decoupling in NE Oklahoma are winds of course and pesky stratus decks.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

       I don't think that the readings of -40 in KS/MO as well as the -29 in AR on 2/13/1905 have the slightest chance of being beaten though despite the -31 reading in OK at Nowata on 2/10/2011.

 

Does anyone know where to find information on the Nowata station from 2011?  2/2011 did have an impressive cold spell, but at the official station at Nowata, the lowest reading I can find is -13 (1/19/1943 and 12/22/1989).

 

The Nowata -31 reading isn't anywhere in the HPCC, NOAA, xmACIS, NOW, or WRCC databases.

 

Other than in news articles, it seems to be a "phantom reading".  Who took the measurement and where in or around Nowata was it taken? 

 

Ralston Oklahoma did record a -29, so it is certainly possible that -31 was reached at Nowata, but there doesn't seem to be any information on the weather station that has the -31 reading. 

 

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I can't think of many State cold records that are likely to be broken anytime soon, but time will tell.

 

 

Although it is an old record, it seems that Delaware's record could be potentially broken during an extreme cold snap.  There are places not far from the border that have recorded colder temperatures than -17.

 

Also of note, I don't think the 110 supposedly recorded in Millsboro on 7/21/1930 is valid.  It was by far the highest supposed reading in the state that day and none of the other states in the vicinity had a reading that high.  

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Does anyone know where to find information on the Nowata station from 2011?  2/2011 did have an impressive cold spell, but at the official station at Nowata, the lowest reading I can find is -13 (1/19/1943 and 12/22/1989).

 

The Nowata -31 reading isn't anywhere in the HPCC, NOAA, xmACIS, NOW, or WRCC databases.

 

Other than in news articles, it seems to be a "phantom reading".  Who took the measurement and where in or around Nowata was it taken? 

 

Ralston Oklahoma did record a -29, so it is certainly possible that -31 was reached at Nowata, but there doesn't seem to be any information on the weather station that has the -31 reading. 

 

 

It was an Oklahoma Mesonet station, according to the SCEC:

 

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/scec/records

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  • 2 weeks later...

Bartlesville hit -28 with that cold snap in February 2011, it was a cold airmass, but the big catalyst for the record low temps were perfect conditions for decoupling and a record setting snow event a day or two before. Mpst of the area had about 10-18" of snow on the ground. I believe their previous all-time low was -25 in January 1930. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Although it is an old record, it seems that Delaware's record could be potentially broken during an extreme cold snap.  There are places not far from the border that have recorded colder temperatures than -17.

 

Also of note, I don't think the 110 supposedly recorded in Millsboro on 7/21/1930 is valid.  It was by far the highest supposed reading in the state that day and none of the other states in the vicinity had a reading that high.  

 

Agreed that Delaware's record low will most likely be broken, despite a warming climate. It just takes the perfect recipe. Even coastal southern New Jersey has been colder. Not sure if you're familiar with the January 1942 event, but readings hit -23 at Pleasantville and -22 at Belleplain on the 11th that month. 

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Not sure if you're familiar with the January 1942 event, but readings hit -23 at Pleasantville and -22 at Belleplain on the 11th that month. 

 

 

I saw those and some other ones in the region as well.  More recently 1/1984 and 2/1979 produced lower readings than -17 very near the Delaware border.  In Delaware, it hit -15 at Middletown on both of those cold snaps, which isn't that far from the state record.

 

Millsboro does seen like a strange place to have the record low for the state.  Given its location, it seems that colder places should exist.  I'm guessing that had more weather stations been around in 2/1899 or 2/1934 for example, than parts of Delaware almost certainly would have recorded temperatures colder than -17. 

 

PS, what do you think of the -22 reading at Newark University Farm, Delaware on 2/3/1895?   There was a cold snap then, but in most other places the coldest day was on 2/6.

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I saw those and some other ones in the region as well.  More recently 1/1984 and 2/1979 produced lower readings than -17 very near the Delaware border.  In Delaware, it hit -15 at Middletown on both of those cold snaps, which isn't that far from the state record.

 

Millsboro does seen like a strange place to have the record low for the state.  Given its location, it seems that colder places should exist.  I'm guessing that had more weather stations been around in 2/1899 or 2/1934 for example, than parts of Delaware almost certainly would have recorded temperatures colder than -17. 

 

PS, what do you think of the -22 reading at Newark University Farm, Delaware on 2/3/1895?   There was a cold snap then, but in most other places the coldest day was on 2/6.

 

I don't buy that reading, especially since they only hit -12 in Feb. 1899.

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Bartlesville hit -28 with that cold snap in February 2011, it was a cold airmass, but the big catalyst for the record low temps were perfect conditions for decoupling and a record setting snow event a day or two before. Mpst of the area had about 10-18" of snow on the ground. I believe their previous all-time low was -25 in January 1930.

That was literally the hardest, coldest day I have ever experienced. I "only" recorded -21° that night (in Watts, of all places) but I worked 14 hours in it until the plant's water and fire suppression systems froze. All time state low prior was at Watts and Vinita at -27°.

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That was literally the hardest, coldest day I have ever experienced. I "only" recorded -21° that night (in Watts, of all places) but I worked 14 hours in it until the plant's water and fire suppression systems froze. All time state low prior was at Watts and Vinita at -27°.

 

So even if that Nowata temp was suspect, the Bville temp would have broken the previous state record and it was recorded at an airport location.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Precisely. In other words, I dont think they had any reason to be wrong on either. That record was going to be toast.

 

I still believe it can be beaten.

 

How much snow depth did you have with that event? 

 

What I have found is snow depth is a very important factor with all-time cold records. 

 

Our all-time cold records in the Willamette Valley are in the -10 to -15 range, with frequency of sub-zero lows being about once every 20-30 years. I can find almost no cases of temps here below +5F without at least a couple inches of snow cover and no cases of sub-zero readings without 4-6"+ snow cover. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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How much snow depth did you have with that event?

 

What I have found is snow depth is a very important factor with all-time cold records.

 

Our all-time cold records in the Willamette Valley are in the -10 to -15 range, with frequency of sub-zero lows being about once every 20-30 years. I can find almost no cases of temps here below +5F without at least a couple inches of snow cover and no cases of sub-zero readings without 4-6"+ snow cover.

Yes. You are correct. I believe in extreme high pressure situations like that event and low temps, high ratio snow can sublimate easily, and I think this helps in much the same way radiative cooling works. Snow makes it's own cold.

 

There was around 12 or more inches on the ground at the time. It was the perfect setup.

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