Tom Posted February 4, 2023 Report Share Posted February 4, 2023 A complex system appears to be taking shape towards the middle & end of next week, right when some interesting blocking is setting up over SE Canada. The models are coming into better agreement that an initial deep low pressure system will come out of the deep south of Texas and track into Texarkana. It'll be a warm system that'll tug a ton of GOM moisture but then thats when it gets complicated as there is a northern energy that also tracks SE out of Canada that may, or may not, phase with the southern energy to produce a more significant system. Let's discuss... 0z EPS... I've noticed the EPS shifting S/SE with the storm track and now has it targeting IA up through SE MN/IA/WI/N MI with snow.. 0z GEFS... 0z CMCE... 0z UKIE... 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 4, 2023 Report Share Posted February 4, 2023 0z CMC shows a system that phases up north, a little but not totally different from what we saw before Christmas. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 4, 2023 Report Share Posted February 4, 2023 6z Euro struggles to phase as good as the CMC does, but draws in much colder air and produces a nice snow. Could set up an epic battle vs the Omadome. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted February 4, 2023 Report Share Posted February 4, 2023 Yeah, this will be a solid rain maker down here, with some modeling suggesting flooding rains possible. Definitely unusually wet for this time of year. A few models have even shown some wrap around snow for my area, but this seems like a model artifact given how warm the system is. As of now, thinking 1-2" of rain for NE OK. 2 Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted February 4, 2023 Report Share Posted February 4, 2023 Latest EPS for Tulsa. 1 Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 4, 2023 Report Share Posted February 4, 2023 12z Euro 1 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 4, 2023 Report Share Posted February 4, 2023 12z GFS, CMC, and Euro all produce a respectable snow storm, all 3 in a different way and target different areas. All 3 close to producing a major share the wealth snow storm, all 3 close to a rainer washout. 12z Euro above. 12z GFS: 12z CMC 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 5, 2023 Report Share Posted February 5, 2023 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted February 5, 2023 Report Share Posted February 5, 2023 Gonna be a Rainer. GfS playing catch up again. What a trash model these days. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 5, 2023 Report Share Posted February 5, 2023 Models have trended east tonight. 00z Euro 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 5, 2023 Report Share Posted February 5, 2023 Have exactly zero confidence in this storm due to the incredibly marginal thermos. 3 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 5, 2023 Author Report Share Posted February 5, 2023 06 GEFS... 0z EPS...somewhat similar...the secondary trough rotating around the initial low is being picked up on the ensembles... @Clinton @sumweatherdude @mlgamer @MIKEKC KC crew could possibly score depending on how this energy develops. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 5, 2023 Report Share Posted February 5, 2023 EAX not mentioning any chance of snow here next week. A little bit surprising given the trends on the Euro and CMC. NWS is telling the same story as the GFS, we shall see if that's a wise choice. Cooler, but still above normal temperatures expected on Tuesday with northerly flow transitioning to easterly as upper trough moves out of the four corners region into central Texas. As this system moves east, it becomes more organized encountering more moisture leading to showers and thunderstorms across eastern Texas into Arkansas and southern Missouri. As the low lifts northeast, potential for rain Wednesday into Wednesday night. Another wave follows this mid-week system potentially bringing light precipitation to the region on Friday morning. While this wave has a lot of upside dynamically with favorable cyclonic curvature of the upper jet/position of jet streaks, moisture looks to be limited. As such, only have low pops with this features at this time. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 5, 2023 Report Share Posted February 5, 2023 0z Models showing 1 to 9 inches for KC area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted February 5, 2023 Report Share Posted February 5, 2023 2 hours ago, Clinton said: EAX not mentioning any chance of snow here next week. A little bit surprising given the trends on the Euro and CMC. NWS is telling the same story as the GFS, we shall see if that's a wise choice. Topeka NWS AFD mentions the Euro snow but says too much uncertainty to add to local forecasts. Also mentions possible light snow with the trailing second trough. 1 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 5, 2023 Report Share Posted February 5, 2023 So we finally get a possible near-perfect low track this week and there's no cold. It will likely be a decent rain followed by a bit of white rain at the end. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 5, 2023 Report Share Posted February 5, 2023 32 minutes ago, mlgamer said: Topeka NWS AFD mentions the Euro snow but says too much uncertainty to add to local forecasts. Also mentions possible light snow with the trailing second trough. NWS is probably right. It's February and if the AO and NAO are going to be positive the GFS is probably doing a better job. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 5, 2023 Report Share Posted February 5, 2023 12z Euro barely hanging onto precip this far west. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MKEstorm Posted February 5, 2023 Report Share Posted February 5, 2023 1 hour ago, Hawkeye said: 12z Euro barely hanging onto precip this far west. Euro definitely shifted south this run. Normally this would be my perfect track for heavy snow! Unfortunately there is too much warm air north of the low. Still got time on this though! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted February 5, 2023 Report Share Posted February 5, 2023 Ouch, the Euro yesterday was showing the 12” snowfall while the GFS was showing 2 separate pieces and little snowfall. Now the 12Z Euro has matched the GFS and has 10 days of nothingness. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted February 5, 2023 Report Share Posted February 5, 2023 1 minute ago, OmahaSnowFan said: Ouch, the Euro yesterday was showing the 12” snowfall while the GFS was showing 2 separate pieces and little snowfall. Now the 12Z Euro has matched the GFS and has 10 days of nothingness. Winter is “over”. Well it never really began. Sure we might get some cold and snow a day or two this month. But it’s basically forked. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted February 5, 2023 Report Share Posted February 5, 2023 3 hours ago, Stacsh said: Winter is “over”. Well it never really began. Sure we might get some cold and snow a day or two this month. But it’s basically forked. Yeah, this is coping time if it's warm now. Never get anything that lasts this late in the season, maybe a few snows that look pretty for a day or two then melt away. Weather doesn't mean much when the sun angle reaches where it does. I just hope this goes south, the last thing I want right now is rain. Only point to watch storms for me this late in the season is to make sure rain misses me so my snowboard season can keep going. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted February 6, 2023 Report Share Posted February 6, 2023 Quite a rebound to 68. Gorgeous day. We’ll drop to 50 tonight before climbing to 71 tomorrow. That’s the way it goes here. 1 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 6, 2023 Report Share Posted February 6, 2023 0z NAM has enough cold air with the lead storm to produce a nice strip of snow. 0z GFS has a warm 1st storm that is mostly rain but has a cold cutoff storm that moves from Central Missouri to the lower lakes. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted February 6, 2023 Report Share Posted February 6, 2023 9 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said: Ouch, the Euro yesterday was showing the 12” snowfall while the GFS was showing 2 separate pieces and little snowfall. Now the 12Z Euro has matched the GFS and has 10 days of nothingness. Who needs snow… stick a fork in this Winter already. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 6, 2023 Report Share Posted February 6, 2023 00z Euro stronger and nw again. Early February, this should be a 6-10" snow event. Instead, it's rain with a little slop as it pulls away. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 6, 2023 Author Report Share Posted February 6, 2023 What a waste of a moisture laden, deepening SLP that comes out of the Texarkana region...even though MBY isn't getting the best track to get a snow storm, but my goodness, I'd at least be rooting for members on here to get hit by it. Sad way to start off what has been a snowier MET Winter month in recent years. 0z EPS...what coulda, or rather, SHOULDA been a fantastic storm... Even if someone in the MW/GL's gets snow it'll be washed away by the next one for Valentines Day! Woah, what the heck did the EPS just dial up??? @Madtown @Snowshoe@gimmesnow Cascade looking good... 0z Euro Control... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted February 6, 2023 Report Share Posted February 6, 2023 This looks like a pretty prolonged every here now. Chance of storms tonight as mid levels cool and moisten and the surface cold front moves south. Tuns more into a stratiform rain event the next 2 days with several rounds of precip. Still looking at 1-2" storm totals. It'll be close to allow a few flakes on the back edge but not thinking that works out this time. 1 2 Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted February 6, 2023 Report Share Posted February 6, 2023 Can we get a perfect Track here in KC?? This is heavy snow!! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted February 6, 2023 Report Share Posted February 6, 2023 Come on NAM, let's pull this one out. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted February 6, 2023 Report Share Posted February 6, 2023 Thundersnow on the 3kmNAM....??????? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted February 6, 2023 Report Share Posted February 6, 2023 Accuweather and Wunderground are clinging to Euro hard, GFS says it'll be similar to NAM too with less rain. Guess this one will be a test of the Euro vs everyone else, but history favor the Euro this "winter." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 6, 2023 Report Share Posted February 6, 2023 NAM RDPS 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 6, 2023 Report Share Posted February 6, 2023 GFS... lol Man, just 2º colder aloft and at the surface and this would be a great storm. 4 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 6, 2023 Report Share Posted February 6, 2023 I still think this will be a good event - just not for many (as it should). Somewhere along and probably E of I-35 (though I wouldn't be surprised if it trends W with snows) will do well but certainly missing that colder air that would turn this into a bonafide snow event for many. 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted February 6, 2023 Report Share Posted February 6, 2023 Pattern feels more like March. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 6, 2023 Author Report Share Posted February 6, 2023 12z CMC...so the models are all starting to show a heavy band of Snow from IA up through WI/U.P./N MI as the system wraps up... 12z RGEM... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawker85 Posted February 6, 2023 Report Share Posted February 6, 2023 9 minutes ago, Tom said: 12z CMC...so the models are all starting to show a heavy band of Snow from IA up through WI/U.P./N MI as the system wraps up... 12z RGEM... As much as i love a good snowstorm to hit us I’m honestly over this season. I rather just us have mild air and thunderstorms than snow right now. We get the storms but no cold or we either have the cold but no storms. This pattern is just all the way wonked out! 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 6, 2023 Report Share Posted February 6, 2023 14 minutes ago, tStacsh said: Pattern feels more like March. And the pattern in March is going to feel more like FEB-- issue will be cold air. I do sense a very delayed Spring in the North. 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted February 6, 2023 Report Share Posted February 6, 2023 6 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: And the pattern in March is going to feel more like FEB-- issue will be cold air. I do sense a very delayed Spring in the North. I'm used to that. But I actually think the more active pattern we've been in will be more of a roller coaster of a March/April, than just cold and wet like we've been getting in Michigan. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.