OttumwaSnomow Posted February 6, 2023 Report Share Posted February 6, 2023 Nam has been fairly consistent. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 6, 2023 Report Share Posted February 6, 2023 Nam within 48hrs has been hot last month or so. See previous threads and Clinton giving same thoughts. But.. 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 6, 2023 Report Share Posted February 6, 2023 18z GFS and 18z NAM both with a nice snow band. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawker85 Posted February 6, 2023 Report Share Posted February 6, 2023 9 minutes ago, Clinton said: 18z GFS and 18z NAM both with a nice snow band. As nice as this looks it’s been in the mid 60’s yesterday and today and the 50’s tmwr. This will all melt when it falls so it will just be pretty to look at with marginal temps unfortunately:( 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 7, 2023 Report Share Posted February 7, 2023 DVN thinks there won't be much snow south of hw20 (Waterloo-Dubuque). I'm not expecting more than 1-2". 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 7, 2023 Report Share Posted February 7, 2023 18z Euro Control and EPS Mean looking nice for parts of Iowa and Wisc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 7, 2023 Report Share Posted February 7, 2023 with this being a very wet snow, expect lower ratios closer to 5:1 or 8:1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 7, 2023 Report Share Posted February 7, 2023 The snowy NAM 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OttumwaSnomow Posted February 7, 2023 Report Share Posted February 7, 2023 Im kinda surprised this pending system isnt getting more attention by Iowa mets? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 7, 2023 Report Share Posted February 7, 2023 this gonna get up this way? Trails starting to brown up at roads. Going to be ugly come Thurs. was supposed to head up yo lake of the clouds sledding this week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 7, 2023 Report Share Posted February 7, 2023 Euro is good for many- stronger and W of 12Z 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 7, 2023 Report Share Posted February 7, 2023 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 7, 2023 Report Share Posted February 7, 2023 I would still err on the low side with the snow. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 7, 2023 Report Share Posted February 7, 2023 Ratios in C.IA look like 8:1 or so--- 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 7, 2023 Report Share Posted February 7, 2023 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: DSM LAT= 41.53 LON= -93.65 ELE= 965 00Z FEB07 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK TUE 00Z 07-FEB 11.0 7.5 1002 73 29 552 551 TUE 06Z 07-FEB 1.9 3.5 1010 83 59 548 539 TUE 12Z 07-FEB -0.1 -0.8 1017 88 27 0.00 551 537 TUE 18Z 07-FEB 4.1 -0.8 1023 50 20 0.00 556 538 WED 00Z 08-FEB -0.1 0.4 1024 67 17 0.00 563 543 WED 06Z 08-FEB -3.2 1.4 1025 80 33 0.00 565 545 WED 12Z 08-FEB -3.4 1.5 1024 79 20 0.00 564 544 WED 18Z 08-FEB 8.8 2.7 1021 29 5 0.00 563 545 THU 00Z 09-FEB 3.5 2.4 1016 59 91 0.02 559 546 THU 06Z 09-FEB 1.2 1.6 1010 91 98 0.28 553 545 THU 12Z 09-FEB 0.7 -2.2 1006 96 101 0.53 545 540 THU 18Z 09-FEB 1.4 -1.3 1011 85 57 0.10 546 537 FRI 00Z 10-FEB 1.5 -3.3 1015 89 67 0.00 543 531 FRI 06Z 10-FEB 0.2 -6.0 1017 95 97 0.02 541 527 FRI 12Z 10-FEB -4.4 -7.7 1021 86 95 0.10 540 524 FRI 18Z 10-FEB -7.3 -8.1 1026 76 14 0.01 541 521 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 7, 2023 Report Share Posted February 7, 2023 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: CID LAT= 41.88 LON= -91.70 ELE= 869 00Z FEB07 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK TUE 00Z 07-FEB 7.9 6.4 1005 68 16 556 551 TUE 06Z 07-FEB 4.1 3.3 1007 89 52 549 543 TUE 12Z 07-FEB -0.3 -0.1 1015 89 40 0.00 550 538 TUE 18Z 07-FEB 4.7 -1.2 1021 61 27 0.00 555 538 WED 00Z 08-FEB -0.5 1.0 1024 70 11 0.00 561 542 WED 06Z 08-FEB -3.0 0.2 1026 84 34 0.00 564 544 WED 12Z 08-FEB -4.1 1.1 1025 87 26 0.00 565 545 WED 18Z 08-FEB 7.3 2.2 1023 37 6 0.00 564 545 THU 00Z 09-FEB 3.1 3.1 1018 64 86 0.00 561 546 THU 06Z 09-FEB 1.3 3.9 1011 89 92 0.12 556 547 THU 12Z 09-FEB 0.7 -0.6 1001 93 95 0.37 545 544 THU 18Z 09-FEB 1.4 -2.2 1006 93 83 0.57 545 539 FRI 00Z 10-FEB -0.4 -2.0 1014 92 74 0.01 545 534 FRI 06Z 10-FEB -0.5 -3.8 1016 95 95 0.00 541 529 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 7, 2023 Report Share Posted February 7, 2023 Nam is very consistent- West in C.IA 06Z-- Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 7, 2023 Report Share Posted February 7, 2023 06Z 3K NAM- 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 7, 2023 Report Share Posted February 7, 2023 06z GFS - tick W. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 7, 2023 Report Share Posted February 7, 2023 DMX AFD-- (Donavan -chief forecaster - for DMX is actually impressed) Mentions TSSN This system will feature tremendous moisture transport from the Gulf in the both the low to mid levels that will push PWAT values to 200- 250% of normal or around 0.75". Theta-e lapse rates at or below zero in the 700-450 mb range suggesting conditions favorable for CSI and slantwise convection as strong thermodynamic and kinematic forcing arrive nearly simultaneously. The million dollar question remains precipitation type with this system and this may largely depend on surface wetbulb temperatures as a nearly isothermal layer will extend to near 5 kft and if there is no warm layer aloft, a surface wetbulb of 33.5 or greater is typically enough to switch the precipitation over to mostly rain. The overnight deterministic solutions are running with a slight warm bias on dew points compared to current conditions so will need to monitor the dew point advection northward over the next 24 hrs as only a few degrees may mean the difference between rain and a band of heavy snow. Precipitation type - parts of southeast Iowa will have mostly rain but in this scenario and given the rapid deepen of the surface low should pull some colder air south, there likely will be a transition to snow. Where that transition occurs, a band of heavy snow may occur. Conditions are favorable for large aggregate snow crystal growth that will have snow to liquid ratios in the 8:1 range. Convection and potentially thundersnow could occur which would help increase snowfall rates. Deterministic model runs are latching onto a heavy banded snow solution while the ensembles and other model blends are washing it out. Did increase snowfall amounts near Black Hawk and Tama Counties to 2-4 inches but certainly may have an area that exceeds 6 inches. Confidences is certainly still up in the air as a couple degrees warmer and this becomes mostly rain, thus still no headlines this morning but will be ramping up messaging. While the pressure gradient does increase with the deepening low, blowing snow should be mitigated by the heavy nature of the falling snow. Stay up to date on the potential developing situation. DISCUSSION...Donavon 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 7, 2023 Report Share Posted February 7, 2023 06Z GEFS increased totals and keeps the W trend going-- 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 7, 2023 Report Share Posted February 7, 2023 0z EPS with a bump in totals for Iowa and KC. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 7, 2023 Report Share Posted February 7, 2023 0z Euro Ens. 6z GEFS Ens 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 7, 2023 Author Report Share Posted February 7, 2023 It's nice to see this storm coming together for a number of you in IA and points NE into the W GL's. This thing is going to puke snow in the defo zone. Gosh, this storm spins up right over head and deepens. Nice storm to track. 0z Euro Snow depth post storm... Post Valentines Day storm...Euro giveth, then taketh....this is what kinda sucks about this storms snowfall...I guess enjoy what Mother Nature throws ya in a season like we've been enduring. The N GL's and Upper MW appears it will be in tact. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 7, 2023 Report Share Posted February 7, 2023 I'm not liking the west trend at all. Even if this does produce more snow on the higher end, it will probably be mostly nw of me. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 7, 2023 Report Share Posted February 7, 2023 NAM is still west, FV3 is a bit farther east, early HRRR/RAP are much farther east. NAM 3kNAM FV3 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 7, 2023 Report Share Posted February 7, 2023 RDPS... These lower totals are more realistic. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 7, 2023 Report Share Posted February 7, 2023 12Z GFS- seemed to have stopped the W shift. Edit- maybe not ... 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 7, 2023 Report Share Posted February 7, 2023 All models are spitting out 1+" of precip across eastern Iowa. This could have been the best snow event in years. After this there will be another big rain system. Then, we'll probably get cold and dry again and struggle to squeeze a couple inches of snow out of 0.10" precip. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted February 7, 2023 Report Share Posted February 7, 2023 WOW! Perfect track again for KC...this is #4 this winter with a perfect track, all have been rain events. Need to watch this, if it does get over to snow, it could puke snow for 4-5 hours at over 1"/hr. This model run of the RGEM does get it over to snow a few frames later, just imagine if it turns over sooner. NEVER GIVE UP ON a storm, just maybe we'll drop to 31-33 and puke snow for several hours tomorrow night and wake up to a winter wonderland Thursday morning. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 7, 2023 Report Share Posted February 7, 2023 well I got the 3kNAM giving me a bit of snow...there's hope up this way Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 7, 2023 Report Share Posted February 7, 2023 GDPS.... lowered snow from 00z 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 7, 2023 Report Share Posted February 7, 2023 Ukie with a very narrow band. Also much further east than other models 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 7, 2023 Report Share Posted February 7, 2023 Pretty crazy that any snow is even on the table here considering the extreme above normal 850s 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 7, 2023 Report Share Posted February 7, 2023 Active storm thread?? Must be Iowa getting hit. This very marginal situation is a lot like what we had last month. Hope it comes together for some of you out there. I wish I was planning to go north this weekend. Looks like the Tip-o-the-Mitt region and E Yoop will do nicely again. Good luck! 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 7, 2023 Report Share Posted February 7, 2023 Wow, the 12z Euro is spitting out nearly 2" of precip through Cedar Rapids. It has to be overdone. 2 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 7, 2023 Report Share Posted February 7, 2023 Kuchera version. Wow these ratios suck. What a waste. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 7, 2023 Report Share Posted February 7, 2023 12 minutes ago, bud2380 said: Kuchera version. Wow these ratios suck. What a waste. 1-2º colder, this could have been our biggest snow event in years. Still, it could look amazing here Thursday morning with large, wet flakes pouring down. 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 7, 2023 Report Share Posted February 7, 2023 9 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: 1-2º colder, this could have been our biggest snow event in years. Still, it could look amazing here Thursday morning with large, wet flakes pouring down. Yeah, I'm ok with it if we can get a few inches and a nice scenery. But man we could be tracking something historic like you mentioned. Almost 2" of QPF for CR. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 7, 2023 Report Share Posted February 7, 2023 This is a winter in IA ( south of 20) where you can't be greedy. 1-3" of snow with a winter landscape that lasts for few days-- heck--- it could be worse. See Omaha. Be VERY glad seeing seasonal totals go near/over 20" when locales just 100 miles W have seen 5"-- if that. I'll take it. 4 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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