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2/7 - 2/11 Texarkana Low


Tom

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DVN has issued a winter storm watch for Waterloo to Dubuque.  2-5" along that line, not much to the south.

DMX has issued a winter storm watch for Ames to Tama and points north.  4-8" in the watch, heavier totals northeast.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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3 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

The NAM is way west.  The HRRR is way East.  I trust neither at this point.  Most likely somewhere in between.  

NO doubt. But what guidance has been hot lately? It's certainly not the extended HRRR or RAP. in fact- the NAM has outdone all other globals at this range for the last 45 days. Clinton can maybe back my on this?? But the NAM has been hot of late

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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10 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

NO doubt. But what guidance has been hot lately? It's certainly not the extended HRRR or RAP. in fact- the NAM has outdone all other globals at this range for the last 45 days. Clinton can maybe back my on this?? But the NAM has been hot of late

The NAM has flat out been on fire with the last 4 storms we've tracked on this sub.  Seems to me with the +AO that a further west track makes more since.

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I've seen these systems so many times though.  I can't recall a single time it ended up favorable for my area.  I would still bank on CR being the absolute southern limit on this, up to DBQ and northwest.  Heavier amounts from DSM to Waterloo into SW Wisconsin.  

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2 hours ago, hlcater said:

I swear CR rides the edge in every. single. event.

Don’t complain too much my friend (things could be much worse like here in East Central NE)… you currently stand a good chance to get some decent precipitation. I would take 33 and rain all day long right now.

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Not only did the HRRR not correct nw at 00z, it shifted even farther east, and the defo zone precip is weak.  It would be a big bust for most of Iowa.  Given the UK was on the southeast end of the model range this morning, the 18z Euro shifted southeast, and the HRRR won't budge from a southeast track, I have to think the west models are wrong.  The NAM should shift east tonight.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Yep, the 00z NAM is way east, and weaker and thinner with the snow as well.  The 3kNAM is a little better.

image.thumb.png.3e15028da338504eae9d17aba30bbda7.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I laughed out loud when I saw the 00z 12K NAM moved the entire precip shield to the southeast of me. Over 1" of QPF on recent runs reduced down to less than 0.05". It's hard to take any of this seriously anymore. Local Mets must be wondering why they ever chose this for a career.

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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I'd go 2-4 for NE Iowa

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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43 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Gfs is going crazy over Iowa city and Cedar Rapids. Virtually All models have increased snow for Iowa city tonight. 

It's a tough forecast for the NWS and local mets.  I would continue to err on the low side.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The 00z GDPS (Canadian) is southeast and weak with the defo zone precip.  It chops CR's precip in half and has almost no snow because it's so light.  Models are diverging as the system approaches.

image.thumb.png.972379c6e34eef3bb85177a1c3d96673.png

image.thumb.png.8c61559a059a893e923aa75a9ece1e29.png

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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What the heck is going on with this thing?

00z UK... even farther southeast, precip barely makes it up to Cedar Rapids.  Almost the entire winter storm watch area doesn't even get a sprinkle or flurry.  This is ridiculous.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Ugh.  Now the Euro is going east and crapping out, at least for Iowa.  Total precip and snowfall are way down this run.  At this point, I'm thinking 1" of snow in Cedar Rapids.

image.thumb.png.06aea7accb3fa14fd9403db4a88200b8.png

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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at least the Euro is not the NAM ---  Euro shows an interesting band from MO up to around Creston, one would think that's convective of some order.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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seems the old adage "don't wanna be in the bullseye 3-4 days out" is now more like 30-36 hours.  NWS grid has DSM area in 1-3". Going to be lucky for 1" and places W may not see any precip.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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DMX with  a lengthy discussion. But really is summed up best by this line -

 

The reality is, we may not fully be sure until after the event shows its
hand tonight.

Donavan

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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You know it's a rough winter snowfall wise when KC disco mentions this-

Highest accumulations are expected across far
northern and NW MO where most will see about 0.5 inches or less;
however, some isolated 1 inch totals are possible.

Oh boy. 😉

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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