MIKEKC Posted February 7, 2023 Report Share Posted February 7, 2023 Latest 18z HRRR...perfect track for KC. Has us at 35 degrees @ midnight tomorrow night, what if it's off by 2-3 degrees, this would be heavy snow rotating on us for 3-5 hours. OMG!!! Come on!! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 7, 2023 Report Share Posted February 7, 2023 Might be DSM special - (did I say that?) been some time-- 18Z NAM--- 2 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 7, 2023 Report Share Posted February 7, 2023 DVN has issued a winter storm watch for Waterloo to Dubuque. 2-5" along that line, not much to the south. DMX has issued a winter storm watch for Ames to Tama and points north. 4-8" in the watch, heavier totals northeast. 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted February 7, 2023 Report Share Posted February 7, 2023 4-8 inches according to DMX. Kinda surprised by this really. I'll take it! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 7, 2023 Report Share Posted February 7, 2023 Overdone--- but still some nice eye candy as this range--- 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 7, 2023 Report Share Posted February 7, 2023 I swear CR rides the edge in every. single. event. 3 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 7, 2023 Report Share Posted February 7, 2023 The NAM is way west. The HRRR is way East. I trust neither at this point. Most likely somewhere in between. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 7, 2023 Report Share Posted February 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, bud2380 said: The NAM is way west. The HRRR is way East. I trust neither at this point. Most likely somewhere in between. NO doubt. But what guidance has been hot lately? It's certainly not the extended HRRR or RAP. in fact- the NAM has outdone all other globals at this range for the last 45 days. Clinton can maybe back my on this?? But the NAM has been hot of late 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 7, 2023 Report Share Posted February 7, 2023 RDPS stalled out at 36 hours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 7, 2023 Report Share Posted February 7, 2023 GFS is east. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 7, 2023 Report Share Posted February 7, 2023 10 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: NO doubt. But what guidance has been hot lately? It's certainly not the extended HRRR or RAP. in fact- the NAM has outdone all other globals at this range for the last 45 days. Clinton can maybe back my on this?? But the NAM has been hot of late The NAM has flat out been on fire with the last 4 storms we've tracked on this sub. Seems to me with the +AO that a further west track makes more since. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 7, 2023 Report Share Posted February 7, 2023 I've seen these systems so many times though. I can't recall a single time it ended up favorable for my area. I would still bank on CR being the absolute southern limit on this, up to DBQ and northwest. Heavier amounts from DSM to Waterloo into SW Wisconsin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 7, 2023 Report Share Posted February 7, 2023 18z GEFS 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 7, 2023 Report Share Posted February 7, 2023 1 minute ago, Clinton said: 18z GEFS The GEFS Is a direct hit for Cedar Rapids. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 7, 2023 Report Share Posted February 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, bud2380 said: The GEFS Is a direct hit for Cedar Rapids. It looks mostly locked in. It will be interesting to see what the 18z Euro says. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 7, 2023 Report Share Posted February 7, 2023 The RDPS/GDPS continue to be the least snowy. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 7, 2023 Author Report Share Posted February 7, 2023 12 minutes ago, Clinton said: 18z GEFS Just saying, the GEFS pretty much have done an excellent job this season. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 7, 2023 Report Share Posted February 7, 2023 Just now, Tom said: Just saying, the GEFS pretty much have done an excellent job this season. Looking at the 12z GEPS and EPS they are mostly telling the same story. Even the umbrella ICON is looking good for Eastern Iowa. Just a matter of QPF and ratios. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 7, 2023 Report Share Posted February 7, 2023 Gary Lezaks thoughts on the storm. @glezak The LRC and this small, yet strong storm heading our way. It may snow Wednesday night! Take a look and watch this video! With a testimonial from @spann 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted February 7, 2023 Report Share Posted February 7, 2023 2 hours ago, hlcater said: I swear CR rides the edge in every. single. event. Don’t complain too much my friend (things could be much worse like here in East Central NE)… you currently stand a good chance to get some decent precipitation. I would take 33 and rain all day long right now. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 8, 2023 Report Share Posted February 8, 2023 18z Euro 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 8, 2023 Report Share Posted February 8, 2023 56 minutes ago, Clinton said: 18z Euro Definitely southeast of the 12z run. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 8, 2023 Report Share Posted February 8, 2023 32 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: Definitely southeast of the 12z run. Control and Ensemble Mean look good for your area. Looking better for the KC guys to see some snow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 8, 2023 Report Share Posted February 8, 2023 Not only did the HRRR not correct nw at 00z, it shifted even farther east, and the defo zone precip is weak. It would be a big bust for most of Iowa. Given the UK was on the southeast end of the model range this morning, the 18z Euro shifted southeast, and the HRRR won't budge from a southeast track, I have to think the west models are wrong. The NAM should shift east tonight. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 8, 2023 Report Share Posted February 8, 2023 Yep, the 00z NAM is way east, and weaker and thinner with the snow as well. The 3kNAM is a little better. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 8, 2023 Report Share Posted February 8, 2023 The FV3 is still farther nw and stronger with the defo zone precip. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted February 8, 2023 Report Share Posted February 8, 2023 I laughed out loud when I saw the 00z 12K NAM moved the entire precip shield to the southeast of me. Over 1" of QPF on recent runs reduced down to less than 0.05". It's hard to take any of this seriously anymore. Local Mets must be wondering why they ever chose this for a career. 4 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted February 8, 2023 Report Share Posted February 8, 2023 Kinda figured it was too good to be true. Oh well... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 8, 2023 Report Share Posted February 8, 2023 00z RDPS... southeast and still rather weak with snow. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 8, 2023 Report Share Posted February 8, 2023 I'd go 2-4 for NE Iowa Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 8, 2023 Report Share Posted February 8, 2023 Gfs is going crazy over Iowa city and Cedar Rapids. Virtually All models have increased snow for Iowa city tonight. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 8, 2023 Report Share Posted February 8, 2023 43 minutes ago, bud2380 said: Gfs is going crazy over Iowa city and Cedar Rapids. Virtually All models have increased snow for Iowa city tonight. It's a tough forecast for the NWS and local mets. I would continue to err on the low side. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 8, 2023 Report Share Posted February 8, 2023 The 00z GDPS (Canadian) is southeast and weak with the defo zone precip. It chops CR's precip in half and has almost no snow because it's so light. Models are diverging as the system approaches. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 8, 2023 Report Share Posted February 8, 2023 What the heck is going on with this thing? 00z UK... even farther southeast, precip barely makes it up to Cedar Rapids. Almost the entire winter storm watch area doesn't even get a sprinkle or flurry. This is ridiculous. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 8, 2023 Report Share Posted February 8, 2023 Ugh. Now the Euro is going east and crapping out, at least for Iowa. Total precip and snowfall are way down this run. At this point, I'm thinking 1" of snow in Cedar Rapids. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 8, 2023 Report Share Posted February 8, 2023 at least the Euro is not the NAM --- Euro shows an interesting band from MO up to around Creston, one would think that's convective of some order. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 8, 2023 Report Share Posted February 8, 2023 GFS caving to the NAM... imagine that. 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 8, 2023 Report Share Posted February 8, 2023 seems the old adage "don't wanna be in the bullseye 3-4 days out" is now more like 30-36 hours. NWS grid has DSM area in 1-3". Going to be lucky for 1" and places W may not see any precip. 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 8, 2023 Report Share Posted February 8, 2023 DMX with a lengthy discussion. But really is summed up best by this line - The reality is, we may not fully be sure until after the event shows its hand tonight. Donavan 3 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 8, 2023 Report Share Posted February 8, 2023 You know it's a rough winter snowfall wise when KC disco mentions this- Highest accumulations are expected across far northern and NW MO where most will see about 0.5 inches or less; however, some isolated 1 inch totals are possible. Oh boy. 2 1 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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