Clinton Posted February 8, 2023 Report Share Posted February 8, 2023 6 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: You know it's a rough winter snowfall wise when KC disco mentions this- Highest accumulations are expected across far northern and NW MO where most will see about 0.5 inches or less; however, some isolated 1 inch totals are possible. Oh boy. Given the overnight timing and the heavy rates I wouldn't be surprised if we don't get a few inches of slop on the grassy surfaces. Seems to be the best we can get this winter. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 8, 2023 Author Report Share Posted February 8, 2023 This storm pretty sums up this season....A season of Tracking "Wasted" winter storms for those from S WI down south...the only beauty about this system will be the convection and a textbook trowal and defozone setting up right overhead! The radar will look pretty cool. Oh, and let's not forget the wind aspect to it...I see High Wind watch's have been hoisted under the Belly of this little Beast. Hang on to your hats @Hoosier! 0z Euro...peak wind gusts...loads of precip... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 8, 2023 Author Report Share Posted February 8, 2023 0z GEFS... 0z EPS... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 8, 2023 Report Share Posted February 8, 2023 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 8, 2023 Report Share Posted February 8, 2023 Euro caving also to the mighty NAM. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 8, 2023 Report Share Posted February 8, 2023 1 hour ago, Grizzcoat said: Euro caving also to the mighty NAM. Why are you saying models are caving to the NAM? 24 hours ago the NAM had a bunch of snow from central to northern Iowa. The NAM was terrible until last night. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 8, 2023 Report Share Posted February 8, 2023 12z HRRR... This model has been east from the start. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 8, 2023 Author Report Share Posted February 8, 2023 The GFS/GEFS have remained steady from the get go…even the CMC was east of the NAM and Euro out in IA just 24 hours ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted February 8, 2023 Report Share Posted February 8, 2023 Ended up with 0.98" of rain yesterday, another 0.23" so far today and coming down. Probably will end up with at least another half inch of rain before its all over. Interestingly, some models showing rain switching to snow right at the end, so maybe a chance to pick up a dusting tonight. Obviously if precip is any heavier or longer we could see a bit more but its just too warm to hope for much. Friday morning has trended slightly more interesting as well with that trailing wave. I think there is potential to get a slushy few tenths of an inch of snow if it works out right even though nothing is probably more likely. Something to watch at least. 3 Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 8, 2023 Report Share Posted February 8, 2023 The NAMs have trended back nw a bit this morning. Keep in mind that the snow totals should probably be cut down even more than Kuchera. The surface will be very wet from the rain. NAM 3kNAM FV3 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted February 8, 2023 Report Share Posted February 8, 2023 Still not really sure what to expect here. just hoping to see it rip for a couple of hours. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 8, 2023 Report Share Posted February 8, 2023 Winter storm watch 4-7" at the IA home. I'll be there tomorrow. I haven't really paid much attention to this. Reel another one in? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 8, 2023 Report Share Posted February 8, 2023 12z RDPS All the CAMs/short-term models are very similar this morning. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 8, 2023 Report Share Posted February 8, 2023 1 hour ago, Hawkeye said: Why are you saying models are caving to the NAM? 24 hours ago the NAM had a bunch of snow from central to northern Iowa. The NAM was terrible until last night. It seems what the NAM does- the others follow bot not right away, usually 2 runs later. This latest NAM now is doing NAM things-- .5" to 3.3" from one run to the next. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 8, 2023 Report Share Posted February 8, 2023 Anyone have any thoughts why models are REALLY struggling with this system? It can't be because it wasn't properly sampled, its been over land in the observation network for a long time now. I wonder if the the TS element taking place is/may rob moisture??? Who knows. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 8, 2023 Report Share Posted February 8, 2023 12z GFS, back nw a bit from 06z 4 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 8, 2023 Report Share Posted February 8, 2023 Pretty fascinating system. I have a hard time believe the higher end totals given all the rain and borderline temps. But I hope at least it comes down hard for awhile during daylight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 8, 2023 Report Share Posted February 8, 2023 CAMS have no clue either. Old Rap (9Z) New RAP 15Z 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted February 8, 2023 Report Share Posted February 8, 2023 I'm not sure what to think with this system. I didn't anticipate getting anything really. The recent NW tick might keep me in some good snows. I think anyone west of 35 and north of Hwy 3 can throw this one out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 8, 2023 Report Share Posted February 8, 2023 I'm liking the trend so far this morning. The southeast fade seems to have abated and even come back nw and more solid with the defo zone precip. 12z GDPS HRDPS 4 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted February 8, 2023 Report Share Posted February 8, 2023 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 8, 2023 Report Share Posted February 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, BMT said: 2º colder throughout the column, this is probably what would actually fall and accumulate, considering 1+" precip. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 8, 2023 Report Share Posted February 8, 2023 UK with a very narrow band. And a sharp cutoff on QPF on the NW side. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 8, 2023 Report Share Posted February 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, bud2380 said: UK with a very narrow band. And a sharp cutoff on QPF on the NW side. It's a decent jump nw and snowier than the 00z run, but still on the se edge of the model range. Hopefully, the Euro will be farther nw again. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 8, 2023 Report Share Posted February 8, 2023 Just my .02-- and I'am probably off kilter , but anyhew-- I think guidance is struggling because as of basically right now there is no storm- at least pressure wise. Lowest I can find is 1013 MB - 29.93. It's forecast to lose 20MB in the next 16 hours. That's impressive compared to RI tropical systems-- Previous nomenclature and definitions The United States National Hurricane Center previously defined rapid deepening of a tropical cyclone, when the minimum central pressure decreased by 42 millibars (1.240 inHg) over a 24-hour period.[6] Currently it is defined as an increase in the maximum sustained winds of a tropical cyclone of at least 30 knots (35 mph; 55 km/h) in a 24-hour period.[1] However, recent research suggests that mean sea level pressure is a better predictor of damage from hurricanes making landfall in the continental United States.[7] 5 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 8, 2023 Report Share Posted February 8, 2023 Seems COD satellite data is down. ADDS still on and this thing looks like a beast with Gulf moisture. https://aviationweather.gov/satellite/plot?region=us&type=vis&date= 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 8, 2023 Report Share Posted February 8, 2023 Euro 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 8, 2023 Report Share Posted February 8, 2023 4 minutes ago, bud2380 said: Euro NIce to see the Euro coming back nw this run. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted February 8, 2023 Report Share Posted February 8, 2023 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OttumwaSnomow Posted February 8, 2023 Report Share Posted February 8, 2023 This system has seemingly had me in its sights all week. Run after run.. At this point im concerned this could be the biggest event in two winters. Once again a weekday early am event. Looking at these models in fairly decent agreement im quite surprised theres no alerts for my county. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 8, 2023 Report Share Posted February 8, 2023 18z HRRR 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 8, 2023 Report Share Posted February 8, 2023 This is the latest into an event I can recall a winter storm watch. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted February 8, 2023 Report Share Posted February 8, 2023 Looks like 18z NAM is taking a slight step back SE. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 8, 2023 Report Share Posted February 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, BMT said: Looks like 18z NAM is taking a slight step back SE. Better consistency from some of these models sure would be nice. nw, se, nw, se, stronger, weaker, stronger weaker....... 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted February 8, 2023 Report Share Posted February 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: Better consistency from some of these models sure would be nice. nw, se, nw, se, stronger, weaker, stronger weaker....... Would also be nice if the defo zone wasn't 2 counties wide. Always gotta be threading the needle in every way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 8, 2023 Report Share Posted February 8, 2023 How the heck does a model (3kNAM in this case) change this much in six hours, less than 24 hours before an event? 1 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 8, 2023 Report Share Posted February 8, 2023 6 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: How the heck does a model (3kNAM in this case) change this much in six hours, less than 24 hours before an event? I have to really think about the last time I saw something like this. It makes no sense. It's such a huge difference at so close to the event. Only thing I can think of is TS storms robbing energy - thoughts? Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 8, 2023 Report Share Posted February 8, 2023 This event is either going to be a Huge bust or a big time event for those in E.IA. Here in C.IA - throwing in the towel. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 8, 2023 Report Share Posted February 8, 2023 21 hours ago, Bryan1117 said: Don’t complain too much my friend (things could be much worse like here in East Central NE)… you currently stand a good chance to get some decent precipitation. I would take 33 and rain all day long right now. I'm not. Things could always be worse, but it is kind of a pet peeve. Though now the snow band is so narrow that you're riding the edge regardless. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 8, 2023 Report Share Posted February 8, 2023 DMX has dropped the watch and issued a winter weather advisory from east of Des Moines up to Waterloo. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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