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September 2018 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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Sheesh! The heat has like ZERO problem bouncing back this summer. Current H-Index standing at 89F with a DP at 72! And it's not even the hot part of the day. Our "cool-down" was about 1.5 days, with one high in the 70's surrounded by an 80 and an 82. Not exactly a cold-wave for the ages, lol.

 

Now, again I've got my grid showing 80% risk for T-storms today. Let's see if this finds a way to FAIL like the 29th?

Here at my house I have gotten 0.46" of rain so far today at this time it is very dark here and the temperature here is just 72° with some light rain falling. 

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Here at my house I have gotten 0.46" of rain so far today at this time it is very dark here and the temperature here is just 72° with some light rain falling. 

 

Lucky you. 

 

Can't make this stuff up. Marshall = splitsville. Not a drop yet.

 

20180901 225 pm Radar snipit.PNG

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The final numbers are now in for August 2018. The mean temperature was 73.5 (+2.7°) Total rain fall was 6.61 this will go down as the 11th warmest August of recorded history here at Grand Rapids.

For the meteorological summer, the mean temperature was 72.6° the average is 70.6° so this summer was +2.0°

 

Any idea where that ranks?

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The euro is trying to shift the best rain over the next week westward a bit.  It's trying to develop a mid/surface trough feature in NE/KS, which parks and dumps over there.

 

ecmwf_acc_precip_mw_240.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Nice outflow boundary draped across mby on current satellite image. Hoping for some t-storm action later!

 

The HRRR is insisting on northern Iowa being the place for tonight's action.  The euro agrees.  I don't doubt.  I'll probably go the entire weekend with only an inch of rain.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Lucky you. 

 

Can't make this stuff up. Marshall = splitsville. Not a drop yet.

 

attachicon.gif20180901 225 pm Radar snipit.PNG

 

:lol: Complete and total whiff. I'm back to June's pattern when nothing and I mean nothing would touch the Marshall Dome, lol

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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:lol: Complete and total whiff. I'm back to June's pattern when nothing and I mean nothing would touch the Marshall Dome, lol

 

LOL @ my just posted. THIS has randomly popped in just the past 10 min's and seems to have eyes on mby! 

 

20180901 537 pm Radar snipit.PNG

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Skies are lowering and legit thunder rumbles incoming. Let's see if it can hold together. My lawn and gardens could use a drink from Ma Nature. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Skies are lowering and legit thunder rumbles incoming. Let's see if it can hold together. My lawn and gardens could use a drink from Ma Nature. 

 

If this misses me, I'll cry UNCLE! 

 

20180901 555 pm Radar snipit.PNG

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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@ Niko

 

Looks like Macomb scored earlier on the first wave of T-storms that managed to whiff me over here. How'd you make out?

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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RN, Wind, Thunder! Woohoo!  :)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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RN, Wind, Thunder! Woohoo!  :)

 

Kudos to Ma Nature for filling in the gap left from the earlier wave with this rogue cell. Guesstimating 0.4-0.5" of rainfall. Just a nice little drink for my lawn-n-garden. 

 

Pencil me a happy camper after all. Wasn't looking too good earlier, lol   :lol:

 

Speaking of camping. LDW is hugely popular in The Mitt for one last summer camp out. Anybody on here doing any of that??

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Nice. Even dropped our temp into the 70's. Perhaps for the balance of the evening..

 

20180901 615 pm KRMY obs.PNG

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Some thunderstorms have formed across South Central Iowa now. These storms are heading NE. I am hoping to see at least some daytime storms during this active pattern.

 

Sun came out here for about 3 hours this afternoon. Temps have warmed to 84 and dewpoint here is 76.

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Had a brief Tor Warning about 1/2 county south of me. Not sure if anything came of it tho? Still have some tame cells parading along 94 this evening.

 

20180901 836 pm Radar snipit.PNG

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Severe thunderstorm watch issued for here. Husker kickoff is at 7. Not looking good, we may see a delay.

 

They are delayed due to the strong storm passing just southeast.  Unfortunately, more strong storms approaching from the sw may delay this game for a long time.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I've had a lot of time to analyze data and study the pattern this morning. I'm increasingly encouraged with the idea that this coming cold season will feature "The North American Vortex". September is usually a big indicator of how the new pattern sets up, esp across the north. Not surprisingly, practically ALL the models are illustrating a real fast start to winter up north and the early establishment of the Vortex across N Canada. Folks, I'm stoked about what is evolving and to see the various influencing factors lining up all together is phenomenal. There are numerous key patterns starting to show up that lead me to believe this Autumn will be filled with excitement. In any case, I'll dive into what I believe will be some of the key drivers.

 

Firstly, check out the latest SST run for Sept via the CFSv2...can you ask for anything better??? Big time warm pool tucked right into the NE PAC, cold pocket of waters NW of Hawaii, very warm SST's along the East Coast, and finally, a warmer ENSO 4 & 3.4 regions via ENSO 1.2.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/glbSSTMonInd1.gif

 

 

I just saw the Euro temp forecast across the CONUS for the month of Sept and it's really chilly across the central CONUS. @LNKwx, are the Euro weeklies still showing the mid month cold shot???

 

How does this map line up with the one below??? Weird.

 

Dl4fjLHV4AAKvfZ.jpg

I asked for a flip. I got more than I bargained for I guess. :lol:

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Severe thunderstorm watch issued for here. Husker kickoff is at 7. Not looking good, we may see a delay.

Thank the lord I didn’t come back yesterday lol I was so close to coming to back to see it— people wonder why I’m a weather nerd, I literally just saved myself from an 8 hour drive and a drunken disappointment.

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Radar is really lighting up across Eastern Iowa now. Lots of heavy rain in these storms. Getting closer to my area. Under a severe thunderstorm watch until 2:00AM. 

 

Should be a pretty active night around here.

 

So far, it's working out about as well as last night.  A couple cells are passing nw of CR, and the big stuff is turning east and backbuilding well south/southwest of CR.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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So far, it's working out about as well as last night.  A couple cells are passing nw of CR, and the big stuff is turning east and backbuilding well south/southwest of CR.

Any reason to think this will change? There is just so much heavy rain on radar. Maybe that stuff around DSM can make it here.

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We had the brunt of the severe winds in my part of Lincoln. Somehow my power only flickered but in most other areas of SE Lincoln the power is completely knocked out. Down to moderate rain and constant thunder now.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Any reason to think this will change? There is just so much heavy rain on radar. Maybe that stuff around DSM can make it here.

 

The stuff in central Iowa is trying to lift northeast.  The disturbance in southeast Nebraska is also moving northeast.  The HRRR has been insisting all day that the Nebraska MCS will shoot northeastward across Iowa and pull the I-80 line quickly north across the area.  I'd be nice if some actual storms could move in and train for a bit.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The stuff in central Iowa is trying to lift northeast.  The disturbance in southeast Nebraska is also moving northeast.  The HRRR has been insisting all day that the Nebraska MCS will shoot northeastward across Iowa and pull the I-80 line quickly north across the area.  I'd be nice if some actual storms could move in and train for a bit.

I'm not sure I would trust the HRRR now. Today, it had heavy rain north of highway 20, that is obviously not happening now. 

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We had the brunt of the severe winds in my part of Lincoln. Somehow my power only flickered but in most other areas of SE Lincoln the power is completely knocked out. Down to moderate rain and constant thunder now.

 

Holy ** balls you guys got rinsed. 80 mph winds reported by spotters?!? Give me the deets man!!!

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The Iowa State game in Ames has also been canceled.

 

This is so frustrating.  Right now it's a carbon copy of last night.  Cedar Rapids is one to two counties downstream of nearly stationary, backbuilding storms, so we're stuck right in the heart of the subsidence.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Sheesh.... worst-case for CR two straight nights.  The storms to the sw are not moving an inch, the subsidence is crushing any rain in the CR area, then as you go northeast away from the subsidence the rain and storms strengthen again.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Sheesh.... worst-case for CR two straight nights.  The storms to the sw are not moving an inch, the subsidence is crushing any rain in the CR area, then as you go northeast away from the subsidence the rain and storms strengthen again.

Are you ready to say this event will be a bust? There is still lots of rain in Central Iowa that is developing. 

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