September 2018 Observations and Discussion

[Hawkeye]

Are you ready to say this event will be a bust? There is still lots of rain in Central Iowa that is developing. 

 

Well, the stuff to the south isn't making any progress toward us.  The central Iowa storms are headed north.  I'm not optimistic we'll see anything but light to moderate rain.

[Tom]

Had a brief Tor Warning about 1/2 county south of me. Not sure if anything came of it tho? Still have some tame cells parading along 94 this evening.

 

20180901 836 pm Radar snipit.PNG

I saw this image on Twitter from someone who captured the Tornado you were speaking of near the Kalamazoo Speedway...

 

[Minny_Weather]

The sun's trying to come out again. Shouldn't last long, though, as today looks to be a repeat of yesterday. Only this time, the ground is saturated here. 68.0*F.

[jaster220]

I saw this image on Twitter from someone who captured the Tornado you were speaking of near the Kalamazoo Speedway...

 

 

Guess I was not in touch with this. I left the building (literally) to take my car that's normally in my driveway down to the concrete parking garage when I heard severe wx sirens going off (there's one at the end of my street 2 doors down so you can't miss it, lol) and saw the warning issued for 60 mph winds and likely hail damage to vehicles. But that warning was for Marshall and SE. Then my daughter said a short while later that there was also a Tor Warning and I presumed it was for that same portion of the cell SOUTH of Marshall that had prompted the TStorm Warning. Apparently it wasn't. It was for this scary lowering rotation to my west in Kzoo county:

 

 

Poring thru GRR's storm reports, there's zero reports of damage from this or even any funnel sightings, so I don't think an actual tornado formed, but it was a massive rotating shelf cloud (a lot like our May of 2011 funnel blow-down event) and could've been really bad had it indeed become a fully formed twister. 

[Hawkeye]

I only picked up a lousy 0.12" of rain last night.  We're 0 for 2 this weekend.  Tonight is chance #3.

 

The sun's trying to come out again. Shouldn't last long, though, as today looks to be a repeat of yesterday. Only this time, the ground is saturated here. 68.0*F.

 

How much rain did you get?  Radar shows you got another nice batch overnight.

[jaster220]

 

 

Several Tornado Warnings were issued Saturday across Southwest Michigan by the National Weather Service in Grand Rapids. It began in northern Kalamazoo and southwestern Barry Counties as tornado alerts were issued for some dangerous storms that popped up in the late afternoon. Shortly later, a Tornado Warning was issued for southern Calhoun County which remained in effect until 8:15. After that, all counties in the southwest Michigan area had been cleared of any severe weather warnings. Farther north, Mecosta County also was under a Tornado Warning this evening around the same time.

 

The bolded is the warning I was aware of. If there indeed was an earlier warning for the other counties, I did not see that when I checked the CWA headlines for the closer hail warned storm. Looks like little or no damage was reported from that scary massive rotation near the race track. A shed tipped and tree damage. Story said NWS will be surveying for whether there was an actual tornado or not? Meanwhile, that cell that popped up over Marshall and headed east brought 3+ inches of rain to Jackson in a short period causing some major flooding in a low spot of I-94 and forced closure of the westbound side there. Also, I see thousands without power in and around Grand Rapids this morning, so we may not hear from WMJim for a bit. 

 

Warmest summer on record (since 1888) for Sault Saint Marie in the UP. Top 10 warmest in all other major cities across NMI, and it finished with a bang as they had (6) damaging tornados on Tuesday evening and lots of damaging winds and knocked out power lines in the forested areas. (2 tor's were in the GRR coverage region).

 

[Niko]

@ Niko

 

Looks like Macomb scored earlier on the first wave of T-storms that managed to whiff me over here. How'd you make out?

To be honest, I had no idea t'stms were coming towards my area, as I was attending a wedding at the time. Suddenly, looking out the church windows, all branches on the trees were blowing sideways and torrential rain falling. No thunder. Just wind and very heavy rain. Then, it eventually stopped. Afterwards at the reception, went outside to get some fresh air w a buddy of mine and it was pouring again w strong breezes. So, to sum it up, I'd say, Ma Nature provided some needed water. Yayyy...no sprinklers today.

[Niko]

If this misses me, I'll cry UNCLE! 

 

20180901 555 pm Radar snipit.PNG

[Minny_Weather]

I only picked up a lousy 0.12" of rain last night.  We're 0 for 2 this weekend.  Tonight is chance #3.

 

 

How much rain did you get?  Radar shows you got another nice batch overnight.

About 2.5" on my side of Lincoln. The airport got less.

 

Looks like the training band of storms may set up just South of Lincoln tonight. That's good if you're concerned about flooding here.

[Niko]

Its a sunny to mostly sunny day out there. Hot is the key word w temps getting into the 90s. Same goes for tomorrow.

[james1976]

My totals so far since this pattern started:
Thu nite: 0.33"
Fri nite: 0.58"
Sat nite: 0.48"

[Cfweather]

My totals so far since this pattern started:

Thu nite: 0.33"

Fri nite: 0.58"

Sat nite: 0.48"

It depends so much on where you are. I’m not far from you and we had 3 1/2 from Friday night alone. Not as much last night I don’t think.

[Iowawx]

I only picked up a lousy 0.12" of rain last night. We're 0 for 2 this weekend. Tonight is chance #3.

 

 

How much rain did you get? Radar shows you got another nice batch overnight.

How are trends looking for CR so far today? I picked up 0.37 inches of rain last night. A thin band of heavy rain moves through my area around 10:00pm last night.

[Hawkeye]

How are trends looking for CR so far today? I picked up 0.37 inches of rain last night. A thin band of heavy rain moves through my area around 10:00pm last night.

 

There's a boundary from sw to ne Iowa.  The ne and sw ends are firing good storms, but so far there's not much in between.  Models suggest this boundary will push through the area and stall to the southeast.  The question is will the line fill in before passing by.

[OKwx2k4]

Guess I was not in touch with this. I left the building (literally) to take my car that's normally in my driveway down to the concrete parking garage when I heard severe wx sirens going off (there's one at the end of my street 2 doors down so you can't miss it, lol) and saw the warning issued for 60 mph winds and likely hail damage to vehicles. But that warning was for Marshall and SE. Then my daughter said a short while later that there was also a Tor Warning and I presumed it was for that same portion of the cell SOUTH of Marshall that had prompted the TStorm Warning. Apparently it wasn't. It was for this scary lowering rotation to my west in Kzoo county:

 

 

Poring thru GRR's storm reports, there's zero reports of damage from this or even any funnel sightings, so I don't think an actual tornado formed, but it was a massive rotating shelf cloud (a lot like our May of 2011 funnel blow-down event) and could've been really bad had it indeed become a fully formed twister.

That is a pure beauty of a storm though. Beautiful.

[james1976]

Just dumped out another 0.50" from the mid day round.
1.89" total so far with this frontal boundary since Thursday night.

[OKwx2k4]

Please come true. This will make it Autumn for real.

 

[Iowawx]

There's a boundary from sw to ne Iowa.  The ne and sw ends are firing good storms, but so far there's not much in between.  Models suggest this boundary will push through the area and stall to the southeast.  The question is will the line fill in before passing by.

 

Radar looks good for our area, don't you think?

[Hawkeye]

Radar looks good for our area, don't you think?

 

Well, there's a decent line to the west.  However, it's not really pushing east.  It may be a scenario where the outflow pushes through and little cells bubble up behind the boundary.  Some spots may get a nice downpour, while others miss out.

[Iowawx]

Got about 0.72 inches of rain from the storms that moved through in the past hour. May add a bit more to that with an area of light to moderate rain moving in. 

 

HRRR suggests that we may get a lull in the storms later this evening and into the early morning hours. Then, storms really get going along highway 30 by daybreak tomorrow. 

[Hawkeye]

Got about 0.72 inches of rain from the storms that moved through in the past hour. May add a bit more to that with an area of light to moderate rain moving in. 

 

HRRR suggests that we may get a lull in the storms later this evening and into the early morning hours. Then, storms really get going along highway 30 by daybreak tomorrow. 

 

I was on the southern edge and received 0.52".  A half mile to my nw received 0.77" and a half mile to my se received about 0.15".  Yes, the HRRR has been consistent in showing a boundary in our area lighting up again late tonight as the Kansas disturbance moves into the area.

[Tom]

Happy Labor Day all!  As we celebrate the un-official ending to Summer, I hope everyone has an opportunity to take advantage of this holiday and relax with fam and friends.  I was planning for a beach day with my nephews today, but that's going to be scratched off the list.  Might end up trying to fire up the grill again today and cook some burgers and polish sausages instead. 

 

I was awaken yet again from overnight storms that tracked just to my north.  Kinda getting used to this pattern with day-to-day boomers.  It'll still feel like summer around here over the next couple of days, but are changes transpiring???  Last week, models were gun-ho on a torchy pattern but have since reversed the trends and now it is looking very likely that many of us will enjoy a pull back in temps starting mid week into the following weekend.  Another weekend washout near the MW/GL's??? Lot's going on...

[Hawkeye]

It has been a noisy late-night/morning.  I've picked up 1.40 inches, pushing my weekend total to almost 3 inches.  We got off to a slow/unlucky start to this wet period, but we're catching up a bit now.

 

After a bit more this morning, all the action should push north and west of the area until the front comes back south Wednesday.  I really hope Tropical Storm Gordon's remnants can get up to Iowa before veering off to the east.

[St Paul Storm]

2.5” to 4.5” of rain currently forecasted here through tomorrow night. Models seem to be bouncing the heaviest band north and south with each run. Looks like some areas close by could easily top 6”.

 

On another note, I noticed the leaves are starting to turn this weekend. Shades of lighter green and a few yellows starting to show up in the yard. Can’t wait for Fall.

[Niko]

Beauty of a day today...sunshine , but quite humid and hot w temps into the 90s.

[Hawkeye]

On another note, I noticed the leaves are starting to turn this weekend. Shades of lighter green and a few yellows starting to show up in the yard. Can’t wait for Fall.

 

My neighbor's big maple tree is showing bits of red.

[james1976]

Happy Labor Day all!  As we celebrate the un-official ending to Summer, I hope everyone has an opportunity to take advantage of this holiday and relax with fam and friends.  I was planning for a beach day with my nephews today, but that's going to be scratched off the list.  Might end up trying to fire up the grill again today and cook some burgers and polish sausages instead. 

 

I was awaken yet again from overnight storms that tracked just to my north.  Kinda getting used to this pattern with day-to-day boomers.  It'll still feel like summer around here over the next couple of days, but are changes transpiring???  Last week, models were gun-ho on a torchy pattern but have since reversed the trends and now it is looking very likely that many of us will enjoy a pull back in temps starting mid week into the following weekend.  Another weekend washout near the MW/GL's??? Lot's going on...

DMX is saying mid 60s to mid 70s for late week into the weekend. Definite pull back.

[Niko]

TS Gordon is eyeing parts of South FL and the northern Gulf Coast area. I am sure TWC crew will be going there to give reports on conditions soon.

[Iowawx]

In the past 24 hours, I have gotten 2.42 inches of rain. I also got 1.15 inches on Saturday morning, and 0.37 inches Saturday night. That means my total so far since Saturday is 3.94 inches. HRRR suggests some storms may still move through CR this afternoon.

 

Next weekend looks interesting, the track of Gordon brings the remnant low to near KC, and that will allow the moisture to get pulled up here. GFS has widespread heavy rain Friday-Saturday night. 

[Hawkeye]

My overnight/morning total is 1.86".  Since Saturday, my total is 3.39".  Of course, as always, the station only a half mile to my nw received 0.90" more than me this morning.  Other stations close to that one are similar.  I've only beat that station one time all summer.  

[Tom]

Here's a neat animation of how an outflow boundary heading west from the storm complex that tracked near Chicago intensified nice complex of storms about to hit my place.

[Tom]

Gordon's remnants tracking through the MW into the lower GL's later in the week, may look like that land 'cane we had earlier in the year.  Some of the models showing a strong, wrapped up defo band within this storm system.  I hope it tracks nearby so I can experience the tropical downpours.

 

Meantime, the sun came out during the morning and the atmosphere destabilized.  As a result, storms are firing up to the south and moving into the area.

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/LOT/N0Q/LOT.N0Q.20180903.1856.gif

 

 

 

Boy, talk about a flip in the modeling.  None of them saw this coming but the idea was there for cooling.  The last 5 runs per the 12z GEFS show the trends for this week's cool down.  I wouldn't buy the big ridge the GEFS keep firing up in Week 2.  The pattern doesn't fit that going forward.  Blocking looks to be blossoming and there are reasons why this may last.

 

For instance, notice the warming at both 10mb/30mb exploding quite early this season...

 

 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp10anim.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.gif

 

 

The next system on the radar has always been in and around 9/11. IF, and a big IF, we could somehow get Gordon to phase into a deeper trough with the system tracking along the U.S./Canadian bordersnap into Autumn pretty darn quickly.  Like I said, that's still a big question and by no means is it a lock, but with blocking in the high lat's and a developing +PNA pattern with ridging into NW NAMER, something may snap.

[OKwx2k4]

Hurricane alert...

 

https://twitter.com/i/status/1036666736890793984

 

Not yet, but it looks like a slam dunk for a Louisiana special.

[jaster220]

That is a pure beauty of a storm though. Beautiful.

 

Yeah, it's what a massive twister would look like here in Michigan if we got 'em like they do out in the Plains. Had I been driving along a road like that and saw what that person saw, I'd have been shocked tbh because we don't get that kind of organized structure around here, especially this year. With the tree line obscuring like that, I'd have presumed Tornado Emergency conditions were ongoing, lol

[jaster220]

Hurricane alert...

 

https://twitter.com/i/status/1036666736890793984

 

Not yet, but it looks like a slam dunk for a Louisiana special.

 

WOW, no kidding! Fortunately my fam in LA are far enough inland (Baton Rouge) to not really be a major concern for them. Flooding tho is a big concern and they've just rebuilt from those massive rains 2 summers ago, so hopefully we're not looking at another Harvey-style system with this. 

[jaster220]

Happy Labor Day all!  As we celebrate the un-official ending to Summer, I hope everyone has an opportunity to take advantage of this holiday and relax with fam and friends.  I was planning for a beach day with my nephews today, but that's going to be scratched off the list.  Might end up trying to fire up the grill again today and cook some burgers and polish sausages instead. 

 

I was awaken yet again from overnight storms that tracked just to my north.  Kinda getting used to this pattern with day-to-day boomers.  It'll still feel like summer around here over the next couple of days, but are changes transpiring???  Last week, models were gun-ho on a torchy pattern but have since reversed the trends and now it is looking very likely that many of us will enjoy a pull back in temps starting mid week into the following weekend.  Another weekend washout near the MW/GL's??? Lot's going on...

 

Uggh, my summer weekend up north had to be pushed back post-Labor Day to next week and now you're touting my fear that the warm summer we've had will crash hard before then. 

 

Well, ya can't control it so we'll make the best of it ofc. 

 

I wanna say, it's been so active in this sub lately! Man, I hope it's like this come winter. So many peeps posting and scoring all kinds of activity. It's been a fantastic stretch really. 

[OKwx2k4]

Yeah, it's what a massive twister would look like here in Michigan if we got 'em like they do out in the Plains. Had I been driving along a road like that and saw what that person saw, I'd have been shocked tbh because we don't get that kind of organized structure around here, especially this year. With the tree line obscuring like that, I'd have presumed Tornado Emergency conditions were ongoing, lol

Lol. I'd assume.

 

Round these parts, it's time to call a friend or family member outside to watch with you when you see that coming. Lol.

[jaster220]

Uggh, my summer weekend up north had to be pushed back post-Labor Day to next week and now you're touting my fear that the warm summer we've had will crash hard before then. 

 

Well, ya can't control it so we'll make the best of it ofc. 

 

I wanna say, it's been so active in this sub lately! Man, I hope it's like this come winter. So many peeps posting and scoring all kinds of activity. It's been a fantastic stretch really. 

 

It's not looking that bad after all. Not serious beach wx but I can deal with this, lol:

 

[Tom]

Jaster, looks like storms are knocking on your doorstep. Storms have been firing and training over here. Exciting day so far. Not a good day for outdoor plans though, but a good day to watch the Cubbies!

[jaster220]

Jaster, looks like storms are knocking on your doorstep. Storms have been firing and training over here. Exciting day so far. Not a good day for outdoor plans though, but a good day to watch the Cubbies!

 

You JUST beat me with a post on the headlines to my west. Radar motion looks more N but GRR wording says E.  Gonna be watching it closely tho..thanks for the concern. I was already at the beach in South Haven earlier and got in the water during a break in the action so I'm glad it held off for my outdoor holiday fun. Others at parks, etc for an evening BBQ, well lady luck's not smiling on them is all I can say.