September 2018 Observations and Discussion

[jaster220]

The Weather Channel should put out a public apology over this disgraceful "reporting". These reporters are a bunch of actors and bad ones too. Shame on them!

 

What a Joke! OMG! Stupidest thing I've seen in ages. How embarrassing to be that guy.

[jaster220]

Honestly though, Florence has claimed 6 lives and up to 30" of rain has already fallen. So its definitely a horrible situation over there.

Anyone's untimely demise is tragic, but how many died in the evacuation? I know a lot did fleeing Rita in TX. Heck, wouldn't be surprised if more people died on I-94 every month in MI.

[CentralNebWeather]

Now forecasts keep upper 80’s to 90 into Thursday. What a long summer this has been. Still enough humidity to make it uncomfortable but not brutal. Think cold fronts.

[St Paul Storm]

Still darn near 90F at 8pm in mid September. Make it stop.

[Tom]

I feel for ya guys still dealing with the heat/humidity. Thankfully, we had a lake breeze turn up and temps have cooled to a comfy 72F. I don’t think I could take another 90F+ day.

[Minny_Weather]

God today was horrible. Third straight year a tropical system has thrown a wrench into hopes for a cool September. Make it stop. 80.2°F.

[james1976]

Yup.....had low 90s here today too. I stayed inside most of the day. Gonna hit 90 again tomorrow. Im seeing upper 60s by next Friday. I sure hope so.

[westMJim]

It is clear and 64° here at my house.  So far this September's mean is 69.4°(+3.6°) at Grand Rapids, At Muskegon the mean so far is 68.9° (+3.9°) in the center of the state at Lansing the mean so far is 68.6° (+3.7°) on the east side of of the state Detroit the mean is 72.1°(+4.8°) Detroit has had 4 days of 90+ this month. At Flint the mean is 68.6° (+4.6°) At Saginaw the mean is also 68.6° (+4.5°) Up north at Alpena the mean is 65.2° (+4.8°) at Traverse City the mean is 66.6° and that is good for a +3.7° In the UP Sault Ste Marie their mean is 65.6° (+5.8°)  at Marquette the mean is 62.9° (+4.1°) and at Houghton the mean is 63.9° and that is good for a departure of +5.4°. The first half of September has been much warmer than average across all of Michigan. 

[westMJim]

The Weather Channel should put out a public apology over this disgraceful "reporting". These reporters are a bunch of actors and bad ones too. Shame on them!

 

That has been going on for some time. I think the "reporters" are told to make it look much worse that it is. But I don't think the (reporters) would be out if the conditions were real bad.

[Niko]

Beautiful morning out there as I have my sprinklers watering my lawn. Nothing like having Greek coffee and enjoying the scenery.

[westMJim]

Here are some pictures from the Wilmington Star newspaper.

http://www.starnewsonline.com/photogallery/NC/20180916/NEWS/916009999/PH/1?start=2

It looks like a lot of trees are down and of course some flooding but no real indication of widespread wind damages to homes or other buildings.

Wilmington now has recorded 19.14” of rain from Hurricane Florence.  For the month they are now at 19.15” the record for September at Wilmington is 23.41” is 1999 and in 2^nd place is 22.72 in 2010 and 3^rd place is 20.10” in 1877. This year could top all of them. As for the year 2018 had been a wet year before the storm and as of this morning Wilmington has had 81.69” of rain 2018 will be the wettest year on record at Wilmington as the record for a whole year is 83.65” set way back in 1877 with 73.49” in 2015 in 2^nd place. For comparison the wettest September in Grand Rapids, Michigan is 11.85” in 1986 and the wettest year is 48.80” in 2008.

[jaster220]

I realize it’s very early, but so far all I’m seeIng on the midrange forecasts is a repeat of last year’s GFS. The real pushes of Canadian air are always 10 days away. The GFS tries to bring it down, then backs off. Rinse, repeat. Could be one long cold season tease for those of us in the S/W part of the sub.

 

The GooFuS has a well-known program flaw. Particularly seen in the first half of the cold season. It's always over-aggressive with cold dropping down. Nonetheless, if Tom's LR posts have any merit with an early build-up of snow cover across Canada, at some point the other shoe will have to drop and the GFS will look like gold with it's over-amped solutions. Iirc, it was 11-12 when the PV hung out on the opposite side of the planet and the real-deal cold waves never did materialize for the Lower 48. 

[Niko]

The GooFuS has a well-known program flaw. Particularly seen in the first half of the cold season. It's always over-aggressive with cold dropping down. Nonetheless, if Tom's LR posts have any merit with an early build-up of snow cover across Canada, at some point the other shoe will have to drop and the GFS will look like gold with it's over-amped solutions. Iirc, it was 11-12 when the PV hung out on the opposite side of the planet and the real-deal cold waves never did materialize for the Lower 48. 

Man, what a frustrating Winter that was. The majority of the storms that Winter were Rainfall. UGH!

[Niko]

Currently, dews are at 70F and the HI is 90F. WOW! Mid Summa all ova again!

[Tom]

Torching this afternoon 88F/66F...#summmercontinues

[Hoosier]

I feel for ya guys still dealing with the heat/humidity. Thankfully, we had a lake breeze turn up and temps have cooled to a comfy 72F. I don’t think I could take another 90F+ day.

You might want to stay indoors on Thursday lol

 

At least there will be some wind.

[Hawkeye]

Ten days ago, the grass was as lush and dense as it typically is in May.  It is now quickly browning in sunny areas.

[Andrew NE]

Ten days ago, the grass was as lush and dense as it typically is in May. It is now quickly browning in sunny areas.

I know I can’t believe how fast things have dried out since we received so much rain. I was scratching my head after mowing today of how my yard looks stressed already. Might have to start running the sprinklers again this week.

[Tom]

You might want to stay indoors on Thursday lol

 

At least there will be some wind.

May top 90F yet again today!  The summer of the "90's" continues...

[Tom]

Good Monday all!  Summer wx continues to hold on this week, but changes are coming which will feature more active weather this week into the weekend.  I have a wedding to attend to this weekend, and if the Euro is right, might be a rainy weekend.  While much of the sub forum remains warm this week, the majority of the "cooler" wx will be confined across the northern sub, likely influenced by the strong PAC NW trough which will mitigate the strength of the cool off later in the week/weekend.  Will this last???  There is a storm on the horizon which I am watching that could be crucial to the overall pattern as we close out Sept.

 

Taking a look out in East Asia, all the models are suggesting a strong storm traversing north of Japan and taking a track into the Bearing Sea Day 5-7.  This would suggest a strong system to take a northerly "cutter" route out of the Rockies around the 9/26-9/28 period.  IMO, taking into consideration all the other factors I'm looking at, this system is the one that snaps the pattern into Autumn.  Interestingly, this storm fits the idea of where the 30mb cooling is transpiring which has dictated in the past where to expect a trough to develop (2-3 weeks later).  Smack dab into the Bearing Sea, right when the new LRC pattern begins to develop.  

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.gif

 

 

Teaser Alert: Utilizing the BSR, I see what may be one of the first storm systems in the new LRC pattern during the Oct 7th-11th period.  First stab at predicting a potential storm track, I'm seeing a SE ridge, potentially major phasing trough across the central CONUS.  Fun times as we see the last gasp of the "old" pattern and a fascinating evolution of an entirely new one.

 

[Niko]

Sunny w a few fair weather high clouds this morning and temps in the 60s. Very delightful.

[Niko]

Looks like the remnants of Florence will bypass SEMI and aim for the EC. That would have been a nice, needed soaker here.

[Hawkeye]

Last night's 00z euro has the season's first North Dakota blizzard at the end of the run.  It likely won't pan out that way, but it's a definite sign of change.

[james1976]

Last night's 00z euro has the season's first North Dakota blizzard at the end of the run. It likely won't pan out that way, but it's a definite sign of change.

What!? Wow

[jaster220]

Ten days ago, the grass was as lush and dense as it typically is in May.  It is now quickly browning in sunny areas.

 

That's truly amazing with all the rain hits you were taking. Is your soil out there that porous? A solid 2 wks since any decent rain fell around my place and there's only the slightest bit of browning. Most of my lawn continues green, lush, and requires mowing twice a week. 

[jaster220]

What!? Wow

 

Yeah, we're getting lulled to sleep by this non-ending summer regime. Gonna make the inevitable slide into autumn more of a crash I'm afraid. The past 2 years we've seen a lot of harsh seasonal transitions if you ask me. 

[Niko]

That's truly amazing with all the rain hits you were taking. Is your soil out there that porous? A solid 2 wks since any decent rain fell around my place and there's only the slightest bit of browning. Most of my lawn continues green, lush, and requires mowing twice a week. 

I cant even keep up w my grass. I need to mow it quite frequently too. Green as can be though.

[Niko]

Getting some high cloudiness now hiding the sunshine. Not sure if they are from the remnants of whats left from Florence. Temps continue to remain mild.

 

http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/RadarLoop/cad_None_anim.gif

 

It does cool off by months end. My highs are generally in the 50s and lows in the 40s. Ouch!!!

[St Paul Storm]

58F and pouring rain. Take that, heatwave.

[james1976]

Gusty NW wind here. Temp has dropped 10° in the last hour. Leaves are flying everywhere.

[Minny_Weather]

Still a heat wave here. It sucks. 93.7*F. No cooldown till Friday.

[Tom]

After Thursday’s heat, I see a lot of 70’s into next week around here. We will likely see a brief spike in temps prior to the big autumn storm around the 26th, but then the bottom drops out as we close out Sept and open Octob’rrrr!

[Tom]

Still a heat wave here. It sucks. 93.7*F. No cooldown till Friday.

What do the Euro weeklies look like?

[CentralNebWeather]

2 more days of 90 degree heat then hopefully that is the end of summer around here. 60’s for highs on Friday. Nice.

[Minny_Weather]

What do the Euro weeklies look like?

Warmer than the last run, but still not bad. Look for arctic blasts at the end of this month and around week 2 in October. Troughs still dominate, although we may be stuck in a SW flow for a bit here.

[Tom]

Tack on another 90F+ (25th) stat for the season!  Shooting for maybe one more later in the week (Thu)....then, I'm ready for Autumn and say good bye to the heat till next year.

 

 

[Tom]

@ St Paul, looks like your area has been getting drenched from training storms.  South side got hit the most?  Your in a prime spot for action through Thursday.  I think its safe to say, summer is over for your area.

[westMJim]

Here at my house it now has been 12 days without any rain (11 days at GRR) With the lower sun angle and the rain we had late August and early September the grass is still very green here.  GRR had another 90° day yesterday. That gives GRR 19 for 2018.  And Grand Rapids is now has a mean of 70.1° (+4.6°) Still on track for one of the warmest Septembers on record.

[St Paul Storm]

@ St Paul, looks like your area has been getting drenched from training storms. South side got hit the most? Your in a prime spot for action through Thursday. I think its safe to say, summer is over for your area.

I picked up about 1.5” of rain yesterday and overnight. I went to bed at 10:30pm and there was lightning. Woke up at 2am and 4am and was still lightning. Almost nonstop action. Looks like another 4+” possible from this morning through Thursday with temps this week not getting above 70F. It appears we’re done with the heat based on what the models are showing. Time to mulch some leaves and start up a bonfire. Best time of the year, other than getting whacked by a good snowstorm.

[St Paul Storm]

What in the freaking hell is this?? The new and ‘improved’ GFS says saddle up.