September 2018 Observations and Discussion

[jaster220]

Just received a strong t'shower. Looks like it will dry up now. Later this evening, maybe some t'stm activity b4 it calms down for the remaining of the evening.

 

I feel a complete whiff in progress with this system 

 

Hope I'm wrong like 3 wks ago, lol. Yeah, it's been a while since we got rain in Marshall. This morning's line formed 1/2 a county north. Currently have the WF draped right on top of me and I think that's going to shunt this latest developing line JUST another 1/2 county to my south. This summer's been one extreme or the other in the moisture dept. Will be glad to see it go and none too soon! 

[Stormgeek]

Mesoscale discussion indicates a tornado watch likely issued in a bit.

This feels like a winter system! It would appear I will be not more than 20 miles north of the action, or at least where the SPC has it drawn.

[BrianJK]

Low to mid 90s w/ DP’s in the low 70s. It is HOT

[Minny_Weather]

As much as I hate heat, I'm going outside and basking in it right now cuz I know in a couple hours it'll be gone forever. 96.3*F.

[jaster220]

That would have been much more welcomed than 93 with 100 HI. Enjoy it!

 

Over-topped my grid-cast by 4 deg's @ 89F (I know, shocker for this summer, right?). Briefly hit a 95F HI but tbh, it didn't feel bad. I was in my shorts and flip-flops lol. Guess I'm pretty used to it by now. The cold coming will be the real shocker no doubt

[Tom]

Low to mid 90s w/ DP’s in the low 70s. It is HOT

No doubt! Bonafide heat for realz. I’m actually enjoying it with a cut off and flip flops. Last day I’ll prob use them for the summer and year out here.

[St Paul Storm]

Monsoon #2 today. Approaching 2.5” on the day and heavy stuff still approaching from the west.

[jaster220]

@ SPS

 

Lucky you, while mby is in the screw zone. Morning line is upper red line, lower is current storms. Here I am, stuck like a monkey in the middle..

 

[Tom]

ORD officially tied the record high of 92F (2017)!

[westMJim]

Grand Rapids current temperature is 83 with a DP of 74. At Holland the temp is 86 with a DP of 75 and down at South Haven the temp is 88 with a DP of 72. South Haven reached 90 for a high today.
 

[BrianJK]

ORD officially tied the record high of 92F (2017)!

Think we may have actually broke it at 93.

[Tom]

Think we may have actually broke it at 93.

Looks like that must have happened after I posted that. Indeed we did!

[St Paul Storm]

Just under 4” of rain and now a new thunderstorm warning for up to 70mph winds incoming. Another 1-3” expected with the next line. Basement and garage are flooded. I’m ready for some lame a** snow. I’m done with rain. Gonna be a long night.

[james1976]

Just under 4” of rain and now a new thunderstorm warning for up to 70mph winds incoming. Another 1-3” expected with the next line. Basement and garage are flooded. I’m ready for some lame a** snow. I’m done with rain. Gonna be a long night.

Wow!! Yeah its fun until stuff like that happens. My basement is wet now too. The 4" from the past couple days was just too much. The ground didnt dry out enough from the heavy rain a couple weeks ago. Been a few years since my basement was wet.

[Iowawx]

We fell one degree short of tying the record high here today in Cedar Rapids. Got up to 92, record high is 93 set back in 1931. Last night, a cell moved over my area and I got 0.09" last night. That brings my September rainfall total so far to 8.02". 

 

Breezy and very warm here now. Strong storms look to move in here within the next couple of hours. 

[Minny_Weather]

The cold front to end it all is passing now. The temperature was 92 when the boundary hit at roughly 6:30. Now it is 82.0*F and dropping slowly but steadily.

[St Paul Storm]

Wow!! Yeah its fun until stuff like that happens. My basement is wet now too. The 4" from the past couple days was just too much. The ground didnt dry out enough from the heavy rain a couple weeks ago. Been a few years since my basement was wet.

It was fun for the first 15 min. Just got blasted by the last line. 65 mph winds, pea size hail, some tree branches down, major street flooding. . My rain gauge overflowed so I have no idea how much i have now. At least 5” and still raining. Storms appear to be holding their own as they move into WI. Numerous counties now under a tornado warning.

[Hoosier]

Think we may have actually broke it at 93.

And 95 at MDW. Hot one.

 

FWIW, I believe this is the first time that Chicago tied/broke a record high on the same day in back to back years since it happened on September 8, 1959 and September 8, 1960. It is really hard to do that at a place that now has almost 150 years of data.

[Hawkeye]

Water in the basement sucks.  Fortunately, it takes a LOT of rain to make that happen here.  The 5 inches over several days a couple weeks ago and the 3.5 inches the last couple days wasn't nearly enough to do it.  It would probably take another 5 quick inches.

[jaster220]

@ SPS

 

Yeah, flooded basements takes the fun right out of it. Leaking roofs might be worse. Had both in the past year so I feel ya out there. Gotta take my "lucky you" post back. Hope you have a better means to get stuff dry again. 

[jaster220]

Nice cell about to smack Lincoln, NE     I know somebody posts from there, right? Looks like OAX is not totally done either. 

[St Paul Storm]

@ SPS

 

Yeah, flooded basements takes the fun right out of it. Leaking roofs might be worse. Had both in the past year so I feel ya out there. Gotta take my "lucky you" post back. Hope you have a better means to get stuff dry again.

 

Sorry you’ve had the joy of water in your house. First time I’ve ever had water in the basement. Fortunately it wasn’t much, and it happened in the unfinished part basement in the utility room. The garage, however, took on a lot of water. I’ll be running the wet/dry vac in the morning.

 

If that was indeed the end of severe season, that was one hell of an ending. Saved the best storm of the season for last.

[Tom]

Just went out to take out the garbage and it literally feels and smells like mid summer out there. It’s still a muggy, breezy, 89F this evening. What a night to be out downtown in the city soaking up the last summery evening of the year.

[BrianJK]

Just went out to take out the garbage and it literally feels and smells like mid summer out there. It’s still a muggy, breezy, 89F this evening. What a night to be out downtown in the city soaking up the last summery evening of the year.

Haha must have been taking out the trash/recycling at the same time and I had the same feeling. It is toasty out there. I’m finally throwing in the towel on summer weather. Next weekend will feel downright cold.

[Tom]

Haha must have been taking out the trash/recycling at the same time and I had the same feeling. It is toasty out there. I’m finally throwing in the towel on summer weather. Next weekend will feel downright cold.

Ya, no joke...it’ll be a polar opposite (pun intended) from today’s weather. Might have to bring out a heavier blanket this weekend. The following weekend looks even colder from all indications. I think the furnaces will be kicking on around these parts.

[Tom]

It's still a balmy (82F) and quite breezy morning with the CF approaching in from the west. Reminds me of the tropical mornings we have had this summer. Temps will be dropping all day long as the seasons first legit CF makes its way through the region. The cooler can't arrive soon enough!

[Tom]

Patchy Frost this weekend across parts of the region Sat am???  Some places may dip pretty close to Freezing underneath HP and calm winds.  The wet grounds may inhibit that from happening though.  Last year, I remember how dry the grounds were and temps actually dipped lower than forecasted.

 

 

 

 

 

Looking ahead into later next week, a highly amplified pattern forms across N.A. and the seasons first Clipper tracks across the N GL's???  Yup, it's really interesting seeing the progression of this pattern and this system around the 27th/28th ushers in some real cold early season chill next weekend.  I wouldn't discount the seasons first flakes for parts of the northern sub to close out the month.  Around this period, we will likely be transitioning into the new LRC pattern with more weight on the "new" LRC.  This clipper may just in fact be another feature that will be part of the cyclical nature of the '18/'19 LRC.  I'm finding some intriguing patterns setting up as we move towards October, as well as, the new LRC's first "cutter" of the season???

 

Taking a look into the longer range pattern, adding more confidence towards a system that I believe would be impacting our sub around October 7th-11th is showing up on another long range forecasting tool.  Utilizing the East Asian Theory, a re-curving Typhoon is set to impact Japan in the extended.  I commented on the BSR a few days ago that provided a clue to this idea of a storm system effecting our sub, alongside a signal that a SE may be present.  Well, if you take a look at last nights 00z EPS it is advertising a SW/NE track of a re-curving Typhoon.  IMO, this is the system that snaps into the new cyclical pattern which will be impacting our sub.  Here we go!

[Bryan1117]

Fall has finally arrived here in Eastern Nebraska, 59 degrees this morning after a scorching few days in the 90’s. Looking forward to highs in the 60’s today and cool lows in the 40’s tonight... love it!

 

Picked up .80 of rain yesterday evening and last night from the showers and thunderstorms that accompanied the cold front.

[james1976]

Breezy and 57 this morning with low stratus. Hello fall!

Dumped out 0.75" from overnight. Week total of 4.75"

[Niko]

Another muggy, warm day today w sunshine currently and temps at near 78F. CF moving through today will plummet my temps into the 40s tanite and possibly some mid to upper 30s tomorrow nite. First real taste of Autumn on the way. Hopefully, today my area experiences some severe weather. Idk, but, being in the slight risk can sometimes mean while weather. Its happened b4.

[CentralNebWeather]

Went to school this morning at 7 AM to a temp. of 51 degrees.  Heavenly air.  Lows tonight drop to 43.  Opening the windows will amazing.  Been a long time since we could do that.  Even when we had some cooler air in August and September the dews really never dropped below the low 60's.

[Hawkeye]

As the models predicted, the line of storms was in full crap-out mode as they moved through eastern Iowa last night.  I received a couple very brief downpours, followed by some light rain.  My total was 0.17".  My September total is up to 8.46".

[Niko]

@ Jaster

 

Picked up yesterday nearly 1.50" of rainfall in such a short amount of time. I am thinking my area received more rainfall as those heavier amounts were just east of you.

[Niko]

Winds are starting to get quite gusty as the CF approaches. I am getting gusts to as high as 40mph. Hold on to your hats ya'll.

[jaster220]

@ Jaster

 

Picked up yesterday nearly 1.50" of rainfall in such a short amount of time. I am thinking my area received more rainfall as those heavier amounts were just east of you.

 

This entire event sucked goose egg zeroes for mby. RN in every compass direction and ZERO for Marshall. Maybe I'll catch a mist off Lake Michigan via LehRN?? 

 

Nice little wind event tho. Here's to seeing more of this as we move forward:

 

 

As for the cool-down, around here we already had low 70s and upper 60s for five days earlier this month. Lows remained warm tho. 

 

 

First blues (SN) showing up tomorrow morning north of Superior! 

 

[Niko]

This entire event sucked goose egg zeroes for mby. RN in every compass direction and ZERO for Marshall. Maybe I'll catch a mist off Lake Michigan via LehRN?? 

 

Nice little wind event tho. Here's to seeing more of this as we move forward:

 

20180921 11am mb lines map.gif

 

As for the cool-down, around here we already had low 70s and upper 60s for five days earlier this month. Lows remained warm tho. 

 

20180921 Prelim F6 for BC.PNG

 

First blues (SN) showing up tomorrow morning north of Superior! 

 

20180921 8am ICast map for Sat the 22nd.gif

Ya neva know.......

[Niko]

This entire event sucked goose egg zeroes for mby. RN in every compass direction and ZERO for Marshall. Maybe I'll catch a mist off Lake Michigan via LehRN?? 

 

Nice little wind event tho. Here's to seeing more of this as we move forward:

 

20180921 11am mb lines map.gif

 

As for the cool-down, around here we already had low 70s and upper 60s for five days earlier this month. Lows remained warm tho. 

 

20180921 Prelim F6 for BC.PNG

 

First blues (SN) showing up tomorrow morning north of Superior! 

 

20180921 8am ICast map for Sat the 22nd.gif

Man, that low down south, near Dallas, TX is a great spot to track up NE towards our area and dump a ton of snow during the Winter months.

[Stormgeek]

Today is the first day this season where it has the fall/winter feel. I don't know how to describe it, but there is a certain smell here when we start going into the cold season and I can smell it today. Low tonight is 41 and if it weren't for all this rain we might have hit the 30's tonight.

[OKwx2k4]

Man, that low down south, near Dallas, TX is a great spot to track up NE towards our area and dump a ton of snow during the Winter months.

This is the best fall pattern I have ever observed in my life.

[Niko]

This is the best fall pattern I have ever observed in my life.

Its looking good. Kinda like the old-fashion Autumn weather there once used to be.