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Winter 2013-14 Highlights


BLI snowman

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Just a thread to commemorate some highlights from the winter.

 

NCDC just released the national data, and for the country as a whole it was the 34th coldest winter on record (since 1895). 2013-14 ended up being the 4th coldest winter since 1984-85 for the lower 48. The national temperature anomaly for DJF was -0.96 degrees Fahrenheit.

 

Here are the statewide winter temperature ranks

 

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/national/Statewidetrank/201312-201402.gif

 

  • In the PNW, the winter anomalies were less impressive. WA posted a 0.0 anomaly, OR posted a +1.8 anomaly, ID posted a +1.4 anomaly, while MT posted a -1.0 anomaly
  • However, the departures were fairly impressive for western OR. The Willamette Valley had a -0.6 departure and posted a DJF average of 38.8, which makes it the valley's coldest winter since 1992-93, which had an average of 37.1.
  • Western WA was also fairly cold, the Puget Sound Lowlands had a -0.5 departure and a DJF average of 38.9. This made it western WA's coldest winter since 2008-09 and 2nd coldest winter since 1992-93.
  • CA had its warmest winter on record, with a +4.4 departure, almost a degree warmer than 2nd place (1980-81).
  • CA also had its 3rd driest winter on record, this coming after a record dry year in 2013.
  • The PNW had its 4th driest NDJ on record, behind 2000-01, 1976-77, and 1943-44. February's above average precipitation helped vault the winter away from historic drought territory. It was the wettest February since 1999 for the region.

 

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A pretty good winter for the nation as a whole especially for the modern era (past 40 years). Let's hope the next winter to be this cold in the lower 48 is more West-centric.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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A pretty good winter for the nation as a whole especially for the modern era (past 40 years). Let's hope the next winter to be this cold in the lower 48 is more West-centric.

We just have so many things that work against us compared the rest of the country.

 

Who knows, maybe a first year El Nino can deliver for us now.  We know the potential is there based off of past observations in history, so a brutal winter is possible in the west.

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We just have so many things that work against us compared the rest of the country.

 

Who knows, maybe a first year El Nino can deliver for us now.  We know the potential is there based off of past observations in history, so a brutal winter is possible in the west.

Not true at all. Every part of the country is just as likely as anywhere to have an anomalously cold winter. If you'll notice there have been 39 winters that were colder than this one in the past 119 years.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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It has been a very boring winter for Socal and the Desert Southwest with warm dry weather repeating like a broken record, and even Norcal has been well below normal in terms of rain and snow. This drought has been going on for about 3 years now and started after the very wet and snowy 2010-11 season.

 

If I were to rate this winter season with a letter grade, it would receive a solid F. If it weren't for the storm at the end of February, then it would be a solid F-.

 

If a strong Nino develops this summer, then I believe CA will have a much wetter season next year with some serious drought-busting rains and snows. I don't feel that this excessive dryness can go on much longer, unless we have another ENSO neutral or very weak ENSO year.

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It has been a very boring winter for Socal and the Desert Southwest with warm dry weather repeating like a broken record, and even Norcal has been well below normal in terms of rain and snow. This drought has been going on for about 3 years now and started after the very wet and snowy 2010-11 season.

 

If I were to rate this winter season with a letter grade, it would receive a solid F. If it weren't for the storm at the end of February, then it would be a solid F-.

 

For here I give it a B- for cold and a D for snow.  Places north and south of here were more like a B- and in some cases a B for snow.

 

On the impressive side of things there were two cold snaps that froze a 33 gallon garbage can full of water IMBY nearly solid.  In fact I think it was solid in the December cold wave.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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We just have so many things that work against us compared the rest of the country.

 

Who knows, maybe a first year El Nino can deliver for us now.  We know the potential is there based off of past observations in history, so a brutal winter is possible in the west.

 

I think we have had more things than usual working against us during the last couple of years than we normally do.

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Who knows, maybe a first year El Nino can deliver for us now.  We know the potential is there based off of past observations in history, so a brutal winter is possible in the west.

 

No question it has happened before.

 

December 1884, Nov and Mar 1896-97, January 1930, Dec and Jan 1968-69, and Dec 1972 were all top tier cold events with significant El Ninos.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Not true at all. Every part of the country is just as likely as anywhere to have an anomalously cold winter. If you'll notice there have been 39 winters that were colder than this one in the past 119 years.

We will always be in the less likely chance no matter what, and even you cannot deny that.  This winter was really not impressive over all here, save for the December cold snap.

Our potential is high, but way less than the rest of the country east of the Rockies.

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We will always be in the less likely chance no matter what, and even you cannot deny that.  This winter was really not impressive over all here, save for the December cold snap.

Our potential is high, but way less than the rest of the country east of the Rockies.

 

Look up the word anomalous.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I feel like I need to elaborate on this a little bit. 

 

This past winter Wisconsin had it's 5th coldest winter on record.  It is totally improper to say it is more likely for a top 5 cold winter east of the Rockies to happen than a top 5 cold winter west of the Rockies.  Anomalous cold and observed temps are totally different things and the West is just as likely to have an anomalously cold winter as the East is in any given year.  Obviously things like ENSO stack the deck one way or another in each winter, but I hope you get the point.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I feel like I need to elaborate on this a little bit. 

 

This past winter Wisconsin had it's 5th coldest winter on record.  It is totally improper to say it is more likely for a top 5 cold winter east of the Rockies to happen than a top 5 cold winter west of the Rockies.  Anomalous cold and observed temps are totally different things and the West is just as likely to have an anomalously cold winter as the East is in any given year.  Obviously things like ENSO stack the deck one way or another in each winter, but I hope you get the point.

It will always be more likely that places east of the rockies have a better chance at record cold than here.   I am not saying we cannot see that, I am saying we obviously stand less of a chance region wide.

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Some of the regional highlights:

 

December

 

  • December 4-11 arctic outbreak:

 

Top tier airmass for early December, regionally it was the 2nd most impressive on record in the December 4-9 period behind 1972 and ahead of events like 1880, 1909, 1956, and 2009.

 

NWS Pendleton tabulated 24 daily record lows tied or broken between December 4-9, highlights include monthly record of -27 at Meacham (keep in mind they have gaps in data set). Seneca fell to at least -28.

 

EUG's 2nd coldest 5 day period on record, with -10 on December 8 being their 2nd coldest temperature on record and the coldest temperature west of the Cascades since December 8, 1972. Their 7 consecutive highs below freezing tied 1978-79 for the 2nd longest stretch in Eugene since 1892.

 

Corvallis fell to 2 in the city and 0 at the airport. Their coldest since 1972's low of -7.

 

Portland's 5 consecutive highs below freezing was the longest stretch of subfreezing highs since December 1990.

 

January

 

  • January 15-25 ridging

Several locations shattered records and approached monthly records. Locations with their 2nd highest January temps on record included Medford at 70, North Bend, OR at 73, Government Camp, OR at 63, and Paradise, WA at 62. Yakima set a daily record with 61 on 1/17.

 

February

 

  • February 5-10 arctic outbreak

Greatest post February 4 airmass since 1936 for many spots in the region, including most of northern OR, southern WA, northern ID, and western MT.

 

Astoria's high of 29 on 2/6 was their coldest on record for so late in the season, back to 1892.

 

Portland's 4 consecutive highs below freezing from February 5 to February 8 is the latest such an occurrence has happened there since 1936. Since 1871, only February 1936 had a 4 day consecutive freeze stretch start at a later date in Portland.

 

Historic snowstorm in western OR and WA between February 6 and February 9, with snow depths reaching 6" or more from northern Cowlitz County, WA to southern Lane County, OR on February 8. Snow depths peaked around 14" on February 8 in the Corvallis/Albany area, making it the greatest snowstorm since January 1969 for that particular area.

 

  • February 22-25 near miss

A remarkable late season continued with a near miss at the end of February for the region.

 

NW WA and SW BC had their most significant snowstorm since December 2008 and in some cases November 2006. Most places totaled over 10", making it the most significant individual February snowstorm since February 1937 for this particular part of the region.

 

Historic snows in the NW interior. Missoula, MT had their snowiest modern February on record (since 1948) with 40.2", shattering their modern record by 20" and coming very close to February 1936's 43".

 

March

 

  • March 1-3 near miss

Another huge airmass that clipped the region, delivering historic cold to the interior NW.

 

Spokane's high of 19 on March 2 was only the 4th occurrence on record of Spokane having a

 

Further to the east, western MT got absolutely clobbered for the 3rd time in less than  a month. The high of 5 at Missoula on March 1 set a new monthly record for the coldest daily max temp, breaking the March 1906 record of 7.

 

Overall Notes

 

The Willamette Valley had its coldest winter since 1992-93, with south and central parts of the valley also having their snowiest winter since 1992-93.

 

Eugene's 10 subfreezing highs was the most since 1978-79's 11 at that location.

 

Portland's 9 subfreezing highs was the most since 1985-86's 10.

 

Portland had two separate events with 4 or more consecutive subfreezing highs. The first time that has happened there since 1968-69.

 

The winter was marked by relatively frequent arctic intrusions, ridging, drought, and by very sharp temperature and snowfall gradients across the greater PNW region. There was a distinct lack of onshore flow for the vast majority of the winter.

 

The high temperature gradients across OR in early February and across ID and WA in early March were among the most extreme in recent memory. Similarly, the three major I-5 corridor snow events this winter were all aimed at different parts of the region and all failed to deliver a single widespread, regional snow with an arctic cold front or overrunning warm front.

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It will always be more likely that places east of the rockies have a better chance at record cold than here.   I am not saying we cannot see that, I am saying we obviously stand less of a chance region wide.

I don't understand why you don't understand the difference between anomalous temps and actual temps. Any place on the face of the Earth is just as likely to break a record low on any given day than anywhere else. It's a totally different matter when you are looking at actual temps. Obviously Seattle is never going to get as cold as the record low for Fargo on any day during a winter, but Seattle is just a likely to break a record low on January 15, 2018 for example as it is Fargo will break a record on that day.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Share on other sites

Some of the regional highlights:

 

December

  • December 4-11 arctic outbreak:
Top tier airmass for early December, regionally it was the 2nd most impressive on record in the December 4-9 period behind 1972 and ahead of events like 1880, 1909, 1956, and 2009.

 

NWS Pendleton tabulated 24 daily record lows tied or broken between December 4-9, highlights include monthly record of -27 at Meacham (keep in mind they have gaps in data set). Seneca fell to at least -28.

 

EUG's 2nd coldest 5 day period on record, with -10 on December 8 being their 2nd coldest temperature on record and the coldest temperature west of the Cascades since December 8, 1972. Their 7 consecutive highs below freezing tied 1978-79 for the 2nd longest stretch in Eugene since 1892.

 

Corvallis fell to 2 in the city and 0 at the airport. Their coldest since 1972's low of -7.

 

Portland's 5 consecutive highs below freezing was the longest stretch of subfreezing highs since December 1990.

 

January

  • January 15-25 ridging
Several locations shattered records and approached monthly records. Locations with their 2nd highest January temps on record included Medford at 70, North Bend, OR at 73, Government Camp, OR at 63, and Paradise, WA at 62. Yakima set a daily record with 61 on 1/17.

 

February

  • February 5-10 arctic outbreak
Greatest post February 4 airmass since 1936 for many spots in the region, including most of northern OR, southern WA, northern ID, and western MT.

 

Astoria's high of 29 on 2/6 was their coldest on record for so late in the season, back to 1892.

 

Portland's 4 consecutive highs below freezing from February 5 to February 8 is the latest such an occurrence has happened there since 1936. Since 1871, only February 1936 had a 4 day consecutive freeze stretch start at a later date in Portland.

 

Historic snowstorm in western OR and WA between February 6 and February 9, with snow depths reaching 6" or more from northern Cowlitz County, WA to southern Lane County, OR on February 8. Snow depths peaked around 14" on February 8 in the Corvallis/Albany area, making it the greatest snowstorm since January 1969 for that particular area.

  • February 22-25 near miss
A remarkable late season continued with a near miss at the end of February for the region.

 

NW WA and SW BC had their most significant snowstorm since December 2008 and in some cases November 2006. Most places totaled over 10", making it the most significant individual February snowstorm since February 1937 for this particular part of the region.

 

Historic snows in the NW interior. Missoula, MT had their snowiest modern February on record (since 1948) with 40.2", shattering their modern record by 20" and coming very close to February 1936's 43".

 

March

  • March 1-3 near miss
Another huge airmass that clipped the region, delivering historic cold to the interior NW.

 

Spokane's high of 19 on March 2 was only the 4th occurrence on record of Spokane having a <20 high in the month of March.

 

Further to the east, western MT got absolutely clobbered for the 3rd time in less than  a month. The high of 5 at Missoula on March 1 set a new monthly record for the coldest daily max temp, breaking the March 1906 record of 7.

 

Overall Notes

 

The Willamette Valley had its coldest winter since 1992-93, with south and central parts of the valley also having their snowiest winter since 1992-93.

 

Eugene's 10 subfreezing highs was the most since 1978-79's 11 at that location.

 

Portland's 9 subfreezing highs was the most since 1985-86's 10.

 

Portland had two separate events with 4 or more consecutive subfreezing highs. The first time that has happened there since 1968-69.

 

The winter was marked by relatively frequent arctic intrusions, ridging, drought, and by very sharp temperature and snowfall gradients across the greater PNW region. There was a distinct lack of onshore flow for the vast majority of the winter.

 

The high temperature gradients across OR in early February and across ID and WA in early March were among the most extreme in recent memory. Similarly, the three major I-5 corridor snow events this winter were all aimed at different parts of the region and all failed to deliver a single widespread, regional snow with an arctic cold front or overrunning warm front.

 

Very impressive list of accomplishments for sure!

 

It really stung to be left out of the snow fun though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I know for me the 2nd half of winter has mostly been trash, but the first half was good. A well above normal of larger snowfalls coupled with strong inversions led to continuous snow on the ground for 1.5 months, with patchy snow lasting 60-70 days after it first fell. Freezing rain in December was fun as well. December was way below average and had long stretches of sub freezing weather on more than one occasion.

 

The only highlight of the second half was a pretty good thunder/hail storm in early February.

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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It will always be more likely that places east of the rockies have a better chance at record cold than here. I am not saying we cannot see that, I am saying we obviously stand less of a chance region wide.

This doesn't make sense.

 

Records are all based on climatology. No one area is any more likely to break cold records than another area. Remember, we aren't talking about absolute temperatures, we are talking about records which are reflective of any given region's overall climate.

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Very impressive cold since January 1st:

 

http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/maps/current/index.php?action=update_daterange&daterange=Year.gif

 

To think this was accomplished with a +NAM base..

I thought it was strange this was accomplished with a -PNA +NAO also. Makes you wonder what combo it will take for the West to score big in this new regime.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Very impressive cold since January 1st:

 

http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/maps/current/index.php?action=update_daterange&daterange=Year.gif

 

To think this was accomplished with a +NAM base..

 

I am not getting anywhere with that link, as no matter what I choose, the product / map or whatever is not available.

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IMBY, I give this winter a "B" for cold and a "C" for snowfall... a "C+" overall.

 

February was definitely an impressive month for both temperature and snowfall, but January continues its recent trend of unimpressive performance. I managed a -1.1C negative departure in December, but the main cold of that event was focused more south. There was not a major Fraser outflow event with any of the air masses this winter. The cold seemed to invade more from the east than the north. Overall snowfall for the winter came in at 15" officially (19" at my house), which is just below average of 22".

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I am not getting anywhere with that link, as no matter what I choose, the product / map or whatever is not available.

Input a time-range first: http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/maps/current/index.php?action=update_daterange&daterange=Year

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I thought it was strange this was accomplished with a -PNA +NAO also. Makes you wonder what combo it will take for the West to score big in this new regime.

Yep it was very 1994-ish, with the main PV sitting over the Hudson Bay. If that PV were 1000-1500 miles west, you'd have a foot of snow on the ground right now. That would've required forcing for an easterly -NAO/-EPO, rather than the +NAO.

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For my place I'll give this winter a B for cold and a D+ for snow.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Yep it was very 1994-ish, with the main PV sitting over the Hudson Bay. If that PV were 1000-1500 miles west, you'd have a foot of snow on the ground right now. That would've required forcing for an easterly -NAO/-EPO, rather than the +NAO.

I'm just afraid we squandered the best chance we are going to have for a while. Tremendously frustrating.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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We squandered one of the greatest opportunities EVER here in January 2005... It didn’t take TOO long for 2006-2007 to come around... Then 2008-2009. We’ll recover  ;)

I was talking about squandering an opportunity for a huge winter. East of the Rockies this was an anomalously huge winter even though the indices were in our court. Not sure how long it will take to have that kind of opportunity again. We haven't had a REALLY big winter here since 1968-69 when it comes right down to it. 2008-09 didn't even make top 10% status for the period of record since 1900. I did a post about top 10% winters on Western a while back.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Ugh, long range GEFS.. If this continues through Spring I'm gonna pop my lid

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_03_2014/post-455-0-02281600-1395010283.gif

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this is beowed ridiculous now.leave it to this winter phil to pick the prime time for snow to stick in mid late march at night lol.

Winter just refuses to give up..we're almost at the solstice..lol..

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/9djSja/800.jpg

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I'm just afraid we squandered the best chance we are going to have for a while. Tremendously frustrating.

Next winter should surprise everyone, coast to coast. I'll elaborate later..but it looks like things are gonna get exciting over the next 5 years..

 

Still doing my research though..just a disclaimer.

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Ugh, long range GEFS.. If this continues through Spring I'm gonna pop my lid

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_03_2014/post-455-0-02281600-1395010283.gif

I hope this doesn't continue. I want to see a full latitude trough in the West with some staying power for once this winter! I am getting just as fed up with the unseasonable dryness and warmth out here as you are of the cold and snowy weather in your region.

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