September 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[El_Nina]

Yeah... there was a 6-week dry period.    Nothing too unusual since then.     

 

And the moisture level down there is just slightly drier than normal for this point in the year per the graph above that.

 

That 6 week period was very impressive, and yeah unless you get a huge rainstorm over summer when you have months that average a half inch of rain or less, it's hard to have anything unusual. SLE set a record for longest dry streak, and PDX had its 2nd hottest summer on record. The fuel moisture is a reflection of what's happening on the immediate surface so a tiny but of rain will shoot the graph up, which looks like what's happened.

[TT-SEA]

“It was the second hottest summer on record”

 

If we had the second wettest summer on record, you would consider that unusual, I think.

 

 

Yes... the consistent warmth was notable this summer.   I have said that many times.

 

I was not talking about temperatures in the post above... that was about precip.

[MossMan]

4000 miles of road and 2 weeks and by far the worst road section i have ever seen is from Ellensburg to auburn. 1 trip and your car will need an alignment.

It’s awful. I travel through there every week and I really don’t know how the front end of my work van (2014 Mercedes Sprinter 2500) is still in one piece. I try to avoid the center lane through the worse of it, or will straddle the huge chunks of missing road.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

One of the most intellectually dishonest things I have ever seen Tim post. Absolutely absurd. 

 

The fire danger is much less extreme than it was this time last year, and for that matter a few weeks ago. The obvious reason for this is the light rain that fell almost two weeks ago now followed by relatively average weather. 

 

Last year we were seeing near record heat the first week of September, but it is completely irrelevant to the persistent drought conditions. Tim knows this.

 

Salem will hit 90 consecutive dry days tomorrow. Their previous record was 79. They have a climate record which goes back 126 years. Western Oregon has not seen a regional soaking rain since April 15th. To downplay that in any way is either ignorant or intellectually dishonest.  

[TT-SEA]

It’s awful. I travel through there every week and I really don’t know how the front end of my work van (2014 Mercedes Sprinter 2500) is still in one piece. I try to avoid the center lane through the worse of it, or will straddle the huge chunks of missing road.

I was taking a pic of the clouds a couple weeks ago but also got one of those evil bridge decks along I-90 in there (between North Bend and Issaquah). That brighter white cement in the foreground is part of the work they are doing in preparation for re-paving.

 

Every night this summer after 10 p.m. most of that stretch goes down to one lane.

 

[TT-SEA]

One of the most intellectually dishonest things I have ever seen Tim post. Absolutely absurd. 

 

The fire danger is much less extreme than it was this time last year, and for that matter a few weeks ago. The obvious reason for this is the light rain that fell almost two weeks ago now followed by relatively average weather. 

 

Last year we were seeing near record heat the first week of September, but it is completely irrelevant to the persistent drought conditions. Tim knows this.

 

Salem will hit 90 consecutive dry days tomorrow. Their previous record was 79. They have a climate record which goes back 126 years. Western Oregon has not seen a regional soaking rain since April 15th. To downplay that in any way is either ignorant or intellectually dishonest.  

 

 

Which part?   I was quoting Mark Nelsen.    I never said anything about temperatures.

 

There was an unusual stretch of dry weather in late and May... but since that time Mark said "we were dry, but nothing too unusual".       He also said "right now we’re running just slightly drier than average for early September". 

 

Direct quotes.

 

Take up your complaints up with Mark!    

[Geos]

High of 68 here with a little clearing late in the afternoon.

 

18z GFS was like a nightmare situation for NC and VA with Florence lingering and wandering around the outer banks as a major hurricane. 

[TT-SEA]

Oh... he also said that summer ended abruptly on August 22nd. That is an early end to summer!

[BLI snowman]

The most recent post on there by Mark is interesting... running just slightly drier than normal for early September down there.  

 

 

A “1000 hour fuel” refers to large fuels (8″ diameter or larger).  First look at an “average” year…the gray line.  In the north Cascades of Oregon fuels in a “typical year” are driest just after mid-August and then gradually moisten up through September and October.  The red line is the driest the fuel has ever been (on any one date) through the period of record.The yellow line is last year; see how that dry east wind period around Labor Day kept fire danger extremely high until the 16th of September?  The Eagle Creek Fire blew up during this time and there were other huge fires burning across the Willamette/Umpqua National Forests.  You can see the season-ending rain event the following week as many inches of rain fell in the forest; a somewhat miraculous event for this time of year.  Also note the record minimum fuel moisture was set a few times last year, including much of early September.  This year we seem to have “bottomed-out” around the 20th of August, setting a few new “record dry” days just ahead of that time.  Showers and cool weather moistened things up the last week of August and earlier this week so right now we’re running just slightly drier than average for early September.  Hopefully it all makes sense, of course you can click on the image for a larger view.

 

 

8 of the last 10 months have been drier than average here. The fact that we're not "way behind" for September a week into the month isn't really saying anything.

[TT-SEA]

And he said there are drought conditions now.

[BLI snowman]

00z GFS is pretty hilarious with Florence.

[El_Nina]

Oh... he also said that summer ended abruptly on August 22nd. That is an early end to summer!

He said "ended" in a way that's conveying the perceived feeling of summer being over because of more clouds and a little rain. He wasn't saying summer was over, it just felt like it. We were used to 90 degrees and sun being summer so of course a nose dive down to average would make it feel as if it's over, when it's really not.

[BLI snowman]

And he said there are drought conditions now.

 

No sh*t.

[seattleweatherguy]

Does it look that bad Monday thru wed tgis week as app says? 70 percent chance of rain each day and possible thunderstorms on tuesday?

[TT-SEA]

8 of the last 10 months have been drier than average here. The fact that we're not "way behind" for September a week into the month isn't really saying anything.

I imagine even down there soil moisture was wetter than normal in mid-April going into the warm season. What happened before that is not really relevant to the current drought situation.

[TT-SEA]

Does it look that bad Monday thru wed tgis week as app says? 70 percent chance of rain each day and possible thunderstorms on tuesday?

It will be pretty wet at times. That is not necessarily "bad" though.

[Geos]

Oh... he also said that summer ended abruptly on August 22nd. That is an early end to summer!

 

I think we turned the corner now.

 

---

 

It sits there from late Thursday through early Monday morning!

 

[BLI snowman]

I imagine even down there it was wetter than normal in mid-April going into the warm season. What happened before that is not really relevant to the current drought situation.

 

Nah, January was basically only average here and February/March were very dry. Only April was legitimately wet, thanks entirely to the first half of the month. This all following an extremely dry December. You have to go back to last fall to find an appreciable stretch of wet conditions.

 

Much of Oregon was listed as 'abnormally dry' even for stretches of last winter, before the full blown drought developed in the spring.

[James Jones]

Oh... he also said that summer ended abruptly on August 22nd. That is an early end to summer!

 

He noted in the sentence right after that summer didn't actually end, just that the heat broke. PDX has averaged a 79.4 degree high from 8/23 on, which is a totally normal stretch of summer weather.

 

Also please tell me you're just playing dumb with the fuel moisture thing and the dry season not being that unusual. The fuels and surface get very dry almost every year in the summer, it's soil moisture that's so unusual and what people are talking about. And yes, this summer by itself wasn't all that unusual in terms of precip, but when you combine it with the dry season starting abruptly on April 17 (about 2 full months earlier than usual) it makes for a historic drought.

[Geos]

Next 7 days.

 

[seattleweatherguy]

Next 7 days.

 

Wow but does it dry out on that following Monday we are deciding on when to vacation this monday to wed or next

[TT-SEA]

Next 7 days.

 

 

 

No more smoke from BC this year!   

[El_Nina]

You reap what you sew

[seattleweatherguy]

It will be pretty wet at times. That is not necessarily "bad" though.

We need rain yes, agree

[TT-SEA]

Wow but does it dry out on that following Monday we are deciding on when to vacation this monday to wed or next

 

 

No guarantees for next Monday - Wednesday being around 10 days out... but its probably better to wait until next week.

 

Its going to rain at times this Monday - Wednesday.   

[TT-SEA]

For the record... I did not downplay the extended dry season down there and did not say anything about temperature anomalies.

 

But Mark was definitely not so dire in his assessment as a few people on here.  It was interesting to get another perspective.

[El_Nina]

For the record... I did not downplay the extended dry season down there and did not say anything about temperature anomalies.

 

But Mark was definitely not so dire in his assessment as a few people on here.  It was interesting to get another perspective.

Except you did downplay it.

[TT-SEA]

Except you did downplay it.

 

No... I did not.   I quoted Mark.

 

Dry for 6 weeks before June 1st and "nothing too unusual since".

[Deweydog]

Don't **** with my drought drama, Mark!

[ShawniganLake]

A lot of cedar trees are in big trouble around here. Not too much noticeable happening to the fir trees though.

 

“The Land Conservancy of B.C. is also keeping a concerned eye on the W estern red cedars.

Karen Iwachow, a Conservation Programs Coordinator with TLC, has been working the Highlands and Shawnigan Lake areas.

"The Western red cedars are dying off fairly quickly, there’s a lot of dead trees,” she said.

It isn’t just this hot, dry summer causing it. Iwachow said it has been at least three years that the trees have been dealing with drought-like conditions.

She said a lower water table is exacerbating the problem.

“When they are not getting that rain they need, they would grab the water from the water table but that’s getting lower too, so they are starting to get stressed out for sure."

She emphasized that points to the importance of water conservation.”

[BLI snowman]

No... I did not.   I quoted Mark.

 

Dry for 6 weeks before June 1st and "nothing too unusual since".

 

90 consecutive dry days at SLE is pretty normal.

[Esquimalt]

The good news is that the last few GFS runs have been featuring a couple of major systems moving off the pacific around hour 360, so at least there’s something in the foreseeable future. The bad news is that probably by the end of this troughing the south island won’t even have an inch of rain.

[Jesse]

Don't **** with my drought drama, Mark!

Have you been living in some sort of alternate universe lately, or did Tim straight up hire you?

 

There is nothing in Mark’s recent blog posts that negates what anyone here has said in terms of “drought drama”. Within the last few weeks he even made a comment about how this long dry stretch has really stressed out native vegetation. Drama queen!

[BLI snowman]

Don't **** with my drought drama, Mark!

 

Pointing out the state of the recent weather is high melodrama because it's been so unremarkable. There really is no drought. Haha!

[Jesse]

Mark also recently pointed out that there has never been a stretch of summers this hot and dry in recorded history, in this area. Someone needs to join the drama club.

[TT-SEA]

Nah, January was basically only average here and February/March were very dry. Only April was legitimately wet, thanks entirely to the first half of the month. This all following an extremely dry December. You have to go back to last fall to find an appreciable stretch of wet conditions.

 

Much of Oregon was listed as 'abnormally dry' even for stretches of last winter, before the full blown drought developed in the spring.

 

I am sure soil moisture was better than normal on April 15th even down there... thanks to the very wet first half of April.   So all was good going into the warm season.      What happened in January is not relevant.    The cup was filled before the warm season started.  

 

The next 6 weeks after that is the real problem this year.  

[ShawniganLake]

The good news is that the last few GFS runs have been featuring a couple of major systems moving off the pacific around hour 360, so at least there’s something in the foreseeable future. The bad news is that probably by the end of this troughing the south island won’t even have an inch of rain.

Tomorrow looks pretty wet here. The 0.07” the past 2 days was pretty underwhelming

[Jesse]

I am sure soil moisture was better than normal on April 15th even down there... thanks to the very wet first half of April. So all was good going into the warm season. What happened in January is not relevant. The cup was filled before the warm season started.

 

The next 6 weeks after that is the real problem.

You clearly are a trained hydrologist.

[BLI snowman]

Have you been living in some sort of alternate universe lately, or did Tim straight up hire you?

 

There is nothing in Mark’s recent blog posts that negates what anyone here has said in terms of “drought drama”. Within the last few weeks he even made a comment about how this long dry stretch has really stressed out native vegetation. Drama queen!

 

Matt has, in fact, been contracted to ghost write Tim's autobiography. 

[BLI snowman]

I am sure soil moisture was better than normal on April 15th even down there... thanks to the very wet first half of April.   So all was good going into the warm season.      What happened in January is not relevant.    The cup was filled before the warm season started.  

 

The next 6 weeks after that is the real problem this year.  

 

It's all relevant. Had we actually had a wet winter with really significant mountain snowpack, we'd have been in better shape once the faucet shut off. NW OR and SW WA was having a fairly average water year up to mid April, not "wet" as you're trying to argue but not a noteworthy dry one either.