Deweydog Posted September 21, 2018 Report Share Posted September 21, 2018 Air bag deployment on the 18z!!! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted September 21, 2018 Report Share Posted September 21, 2018 Air bag deployment on the 18z!!! Wickedly cold airmass for late September/early October. It'll totally verify. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 21, 2018 Report Share Posted September 21, 2018 Air bag deployment on the 18z!!!This is a typical scenario where there 18Z makes a jump and every other run follows. I think it was the 18Z run that blazed the trail last February. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 21, 2018 Report Share Posted September 21, 2018 Looks like its raining pretty good in Bellingham now. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 21, 2018 Report Share Posted September 21, 2018 Been a long time since we've had snow on the ground here in September. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted September 21, 2018 Report Share Posted September 21, 2018 Pretty subtropical out there today. Scenes of coming warm attractions this winter? I talked to a Christmas tree supplier today, he said he won't be ordering the traditional Nobles, Grands, and Douglas firs. Because of the El Nino he'll be stocking palms at his lots. Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted September 21, 2018 Author Report Share Posted September 21, 2018 This is a typical scenario where there 18Z makes a jump and every other run follows. I think it was the 18Z run that blazed the trail last February.Are we still calling it the Druncle? Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted September 21, 2018 Author Report Share Posted September 21, 2018 Been a long time since we've had snow on the ground here in September.Year without a summer maybe? Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Jones Posted September 21, 2018 Report Share Posted September 21, 2018 Decent support from the 18z ensembles. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted September 21, 2018 Report Share Posted September 21, 2018 That is some cold air in Montana next weekend on the 12Z ECMWF... these are high temps. That could kick on serious instability in portions of the country. Be curious to see what kind of Big Thunderstorms can be stirred up along some of those boundaries. OUCH! Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 21, 2018 Report Share Posted September 21, 2018 Year without a summer maybe?After today, yes. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 22, 2018 Report Share Posted September 22, 2018 I think 2014/15 might be a better analog than either of those, however. Especially 2009/10, which I really don’t like as an analog this year. The only thing 2009-10 has going for it is low solar. I don't really like either year for overall analogs. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 22, 2018 Report Share Posted September 22, 2018 Pretty subtropical out there today. Scenes of coming warm attractions this winter? I talked to a Christmas tree supplier today, he said he won't be ordering the traditional Nobles, Grands, and Douglas firs. Because of the El Nino he'll be stocking palms at his lots. Did you tell him there is no El Nino? Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted September 22, 2018 Report Share Posted September 22, 2018 Pretty subtropical out there today. Scenes of coming warm attractions this winter? I talked to a Christmas tree supplier today, he said he won't be ordering the traditional Nobles, Grands, and Douglas firs. Because of the El Nino he'll be stocking palms at his lots. all the trees at local farms here are dead because of this heavenly summer we just had. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 22, 2018 Report Share Posted September 22, 2018 There would be some insane one day temp falls if the 18z materialized. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted September 22, 2018 Report Share Posted September 22, 2018 Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 22, 2018 Report Share Posted September 22, 2018 Picked some apples and grapes today... still more to go. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherArchive Posted September 22, 2018 Report Share Posted September 22, 2018 Barring the government people not being a--holes about it doing things they shouldn't....even a warmer world could have it's own weather excitements and apostrophes that don't involve cold and snow so it's not exactly the "end of the forum" even if we go most years with just a trace of snow. Ifred obviously has forgotten the 2008 thru 2012 era which had many interesting moments or he wasn't around yet on the forums not sure which. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted September 22, 2018 Author Report Share Posted September 22, 2018 After today, yes.You gotta wonder how many times it snowed in the PNW lowlands that year and winter? Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted September 22, 2018 Report Share Posted September 22, 2018 This is a typical scenario where there 18Z makes a jump and every other run follows. I think it was the 18Z run that blazed the trail last February.Yeah, I think I remember that as well. FWIW, the 18z FV3-GFS looks even more incredible all the way out to day 16. It shows negative 850 mb temps west of the Cascades next Saturday. Then after that the block up near Alaska pretty much stays in place and we get reloads of cool/cold air down here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted September 22, 2018 Author Report Share Posted September 22, 2018 2 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted September 22, 2018 Report Share Posted September 22, 2018 No rain here yet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted September 22, 2018 Report Share Posted September 22, 2018 Had some sprinkles but not enough to wet the groundNever get tired of these sunsets 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted September 22, 2018 Report Share Posted September 22, 2018 Also had this interesting cloud. Looks like it’s twisting 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 22, 2018 Report Share Posted September 22, 2018 The only thing 2009-10 has going for it is low solar. I don't really like either year for overall analogs.Yeah, the only coherent signals this year has going for it are the +PMM/-AMO/warm dateline SSTs. The solar wind hasn’t been weak long enough yet, and verything else is a chaotic mess. But years like 2014/15, 1985/86, 1977/78, or possibly even 2017/18 (to some extent) appear to feature some degree of low frequency homogeneity to 2018/19’s potential background state. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 22, 2018 Report Share Posted September 22, 2018 Yeah, the only coherent signals this year has going for it are the +PMM/-AMO/warm dateline SSTs. The solar wind hasn’t been weak long enough yet, and verything else is a chaotic mess. But years like 2014/15, 1985/86, 1977/78, or possibly even 2017/18 (to some extent) appear to feature some degree of low frequency homogeneity to 2018/19’s potential background state.So some stuff is going to happen... maybe incredible stuff or maybe boring stuff or maybe some stuff in between. But stuff will happen! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 22, 2018 Report Share Posted September 22, 2018 So some stuff is going to happen... maybe incredible stuff or maybe boring stuff or maybe some stuff in between. But stuff will happen!Won’t know for sure until the monsoon-to-Siberian High seasonal transition completes! Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted September 22, 2018 Report Share Posted September 22, 2018 Wow! Heavy rain and gusty winds all of a sudden. Rain gauge is getting broken in tonight! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 22, 2018 Report Share Posted September 22, 2018 There would be some insane one day temp falls if the 18z materialized. gfs_T850a_nwus_29.pngI don't think insane would be appropriate descriptive terminology. "Insane" implies a complete lack of rationality and defies cognitive reasoning. "Extremely impressive and/or noteworthy" would be more in line with the reality of the situation. -Flatiron 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 22, 2018 Report Share Posted September 22, 2018 Pretty impressive change on the 18z GFS vs previous runs. Some ensemble support for a sharp drop later next week also. Would love to see it verify. In other news I already saw some light frost on the neighbors roof tops earlier this week when it dropped to 40. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 22, 2018 Report Share Posted September 22, 2018 That's exactly what it is here, how do you do it?Meh, I b*tch, whine, complain, drink, and sweat my way through it. This time of year is celebratory for me...light at the end of the tunnel after half a year of hell. The average high drops ~ 15*F over next 5 weeks. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted September 22, 2018 Report Share Posted September 22, 2018 So some stuff is going to happen... maybe incredible stuff or maybe boring stuff or maybe some stuff in between. But stuff will happen! My money is on #BSF Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 22, 2018 Report Share Posted September 22, 2018 Given model trends, it can't be a coincidence that The Day After Tomorrow is on right now. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted September 22, 2018 Report Share Posted September 22, 2018 Given model trends, it can't be a coincidence that The Day After Tomorrow is on right now.That doesn’t sound possible Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 22, 2018 Report Share Posted September 22, 2018 ICON on board. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 22, 2018 Report Share Posted September 22, 2018 ICON on board. You can already tell the 00Z GFS is going totally that way as well. I called it... certain times the 18Z run sniffs out a major change and it usually happens with a highly amplified pattern and retrogression. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 22, 2018 Report Share Posted September 22, 2018 Tim called it. Hour 120 of the 12z Euro was much less crashy and the rest was history. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 22, 2018 Report Share Posted September 22, 2018 Tim called it. Hour 120 of the 12z Euro was much less crashy and the rest was history.I did not say "much" less crashy. And it was less crashy. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 22, 2018 Report Share Posted September 22, 2018 I did not say "much" less crashy. And it was less crashy.I heard the EPS was too! Tim called it! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 22, 2018 Report Share Posted September 22, 2018 This is a typical scenario where there 18Z makes a jump and every other run follows. I think it was the 18Z run that blazed the trail last February. I specifically said this. And the 12Z EPS did show anything like what the 18Z and 00Z GFS show. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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