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September 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest


TigerWoodsLibido

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Air bag deployment on the 18z!!!

 

Wickedly cold airmass for late September/early October. It'll totally verify.

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Air bag deployment on the 18z!!!

This is a typical scenario where there 18Z makes a jump and every other run follows. I think it was the 18Z run that blazed the trail last February.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Pretty subtropical out there today.  Scenes of coming warm attractions this winter?  I talked to a Christmas tree supplier today, he said he won't be ordering the traditional Nobles, Grands, and Douglas firs.  Because of the El Nino he'll be stocking palms at his lots. 

"Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness."

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This is a typical scenario where there 18Z makes a jump and every other run follows. I think it was the 18Z run that blazed the trail last February.

Are we still calling it the Druncle?

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Been a long time since we've had snow on the ground here in September.

Year without a summer maybe?

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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That is some cold air in Montana next weekend on the 12Z ECMWF... these are high temps.

 

ecmwf_t2max_nw_39_1.png

That could kick on serious instability in portions of the country. Be curious to see what kind of Big Thunderstorms can be stirred up along some of those boundaries. OUCH!

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Pretty subtropical out there today.  Scenes of coming warm attractions this winter?  I talked to a Christmas tree supplier today, he said he won't be ordering the traditional Nobles, Grands, and Douglas firs.  Because of the El Nino he'll be stocking palms at his lots. 

 

Did you tell him there is no El Nino?

A forum for the end of the world.

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Pretty subtropical out there today. Scenes of coming warm attractions this winter? I talked to a Christmas tree supplier today, he said he won't be ordering the traditional Nobles, Grands, and Douglas firs. Because of the El Nino he'll be stocking palms at his lots.

all the trees at local farms here are dead because of this heavenly summer we just had.
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Barring the government people not being a--holes about it doing things they shouldn't....even a warmer world could have it's own weather excitements and apostrophes that don't involve cold and snow so it's not exactly the "end of the forum" even if we go most years with just a trace of snow.  Ifred obviously has forgotten the 2008 thru 2012 era which had many interesting moments or he wasn't around yet on the forums not sure which.

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After today, yes.

You gotta wonder how many times it snowed in the PNW lowlands that year and winter?

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

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This is a typical scenario where there 18Z makes a jump and every other run follows. I think it was the 18Z run that blazed the trail last February.

Yeah, I think I remember that as well.

 

FWIW, the 18z FV3-GFS looks even more incredible all the way out to day 16. It shows negative 850 mb temps west of the Cascades next Saturday. Then after that the block up near Alaska pretty much stays in place and we get reloads of cool/cold air down here.

 

fv3p_T850_us_33.png

fv3p_z500a_namer_33.png

fv3p_z500a_namer_51.png

fv3p_z500a_namer_65.png

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

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The only thing 2009-10 has going for it is low solar. I don't really like either year for overall analogs.

Yeah, the only coherent signals this year has going for it are the +PMM/-AMO/warm dateline SSTs. The solar wind hasn’t been weak long enough yet, and verything else is a chaotic mess.

 

But years like 2014/15, 1985/86, 1977/78, or possibly even 2017/18 (to some extent) appear to feature some degree of low frequency homogeneity to 2018/19’s potential background state.

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Yeah, the only coherent signals this year has going for it are the +PMM/-AMO/warm dateline SSTs. The solar wind hasn’t been weak long enough yet, and verything else is a chaotic mess.

 

But years like 2014/15, 1985/86, 1977/78, or possibly even 2017/18 (to some extent) appear to feature some degree of low frequency homogeneity to 2018/19’s potential background state.

So some stuff is going to happen... maybe incredible stuff or maybe boring stuff or maybe some stuff in between.

 

But stuff will happen!

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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So some stuff is going to happen... maybe incredible stuff or maybe boring stuff or maybe some stuff in between.

 

But stuff will happen!

Won’t know for sure until the monsoon-to-Siberian High seasonal transition completes!

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There would be some insane one day temp falls if the 18z materialized.

 

gfs_T850a_nwus_29.png

I don't think insane would be appropriate descriptive terminology. "Insane" implies a complete lack of rationality and defies cognitive reasoning. "Extremely impressive and/or noteworthy" would be more in line with the reality of the situation.

 

-Flatiron

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Pretty impressive change on the 18z GFS vs previous runs.  Some ensemble support for a sharp drop later next week also.  Would love to see it verify.

 

In other news I already saw some light frost on the neighbors roof tops earlier this week when it dropped to 40.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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That's exactly what it is here, how do you do it?

Meh, I b*tch, whine, complain, drink, and sweat my way through it.

 

This time of year is celebratory for me...light at the end of the tunnel after half a year of hell. The average high drops ~ 15*F over next 5 weeks. ☃️

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ICON on board.

 

 

You can already tell the 00Z GFS is going totally that way as well.

 

I called it... certain times the 18Z run sniffs out a major change and it usually happens with a highly amplified pattern and retrogression.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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This is a typical scenario where there 18Z makes a jump and every other run follows. I think it was the 18Z run that blazed the trail last February.

 

 

I specifically said this.

 

And the 12Z EPS did show anything like what the 18Z and 00Z GFS show.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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