September 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[MikeInEverett]

Basically poured down rain today nonstop after 4:00 until just a few hours ago. Hopefully I can be in the middle of a CZ like that come winter!

[jcmcgaffey]

About a 1/2” of rain here in north seattle. SEA did it again and avoided the rain most of king county saw today.

[Phil]

On a side note, please for the love of god, get out of the left lane. If someone doing 70 comes up behind you, don’t just chill out at 61 while keeping pace with the semi to your right. It’s not your job to be a speedo justice warrior. You have no idea of the person behind you is seeing a sick family member or trying to make it to work on time.

 

Also blinkers. Use them.

^^ This. Literally me every time I drive.

 

We call them left lane campers. A good portion of the rush hour traffic can be attributed to those bozos.

[WeatherArchive]

Had a bout of steady drizzle in Everett.

 

On a side note, please for the love of god, get out of the left lane. If someone doing 70 comes up behind you, don’t just chill out at 61 while keeping pace with the semi to your right. It’s not your job to be a speedo justice warrior. You have no idea of the person behind you is seeing a sick family member or trying to make it to work on time.

 

I swear to god everyone in Western Oregon and Western Washington was tought road etiquette by a hippy grandma who believes that going faster than 55 is a crime.

 

Also blinkers. Use them.

Our old  Ford Windstar which served us for 15 years from 2000 you could do that very easy and use only a very little bit of gas to do so not wearing your engine out.

 

You barely have the pedal downn and you could keep up with that kind of traffic or pass them WITHOUT the engine having to rev and rev for several seconds: You count to 3 and your already there passing and it scared us the first few times not use to such power and this is no race car. We have NEVER had to floor it: Only once just to see what it was actually like and it felt like a nitrus boosts from hell.

 

Our current car the next closest match after a lot of car hunting no car does it right anymore: Even putting the pedal to the floor you count to 5 minimum hearing the engine whine trying to get up to snuff and this their best car as a mini van.  All the cars no matter the size though have the same kind of crappy engine and the small ones are worse: We tested a used blue Subaru that was the closest to the Windstar but you still had to push the pedal to the floor and the engine would rev and rev for a total of 8 seconds before you catch up to traffic and that particular one it had some kind of steering issue where it would keep going to the left, Doing online research it's common that after 5 years those kinds of cars have steering problems and brake issues usually follow or transmission issues crop up.  Jeeeeeez no thanks! Otherwise it's a very nice car itself.  We REAAAAAALY liked the design and features of it but it had a lot of hidden issues and no warranty, The cost of fixing the said issues would wind up costing almost as much as a new car.

 

The Windstar has 310 horse power and this is from the year 2000 when a lot of cars were still like trucks in gas mileage: It had the transmission finally give out a few years ago but it went thru the comment from hell and went all over the place on a lot of dirt roads too. 

 

Obama ended that as ALL the manufacturers at the time confirmed to the (eco) friendly Obama cars which in Salem I've seen a few and we wonder where the heck you buy them as no manufacturer sells them. though they all have slightly bigger versions that look more like a revive of Volkswagons but these tinier cars you would literally be bumping elbows with your passenger the whole way and a tall person couldn't fit in much over 6 foot  I'd rather even have the modern day Volkswagon style cars then that tiny piece of crap. 

 

Obama and his type of people tried (but thankfully failed) to make it the ONLY kind of car your allowed to drive or the manufacturers would go to prison which is why he did the cash for clunkers crap to push us that direction but many people cried foul and called out. The car people who make them would be at most trouble under this law so anticipatingthis they all confirmed to the little cars and they all look dorky. 

 

 The pickup trucks sadly are EXTREME gas hogs and are more truck like in feel and design not really efficient at all. The other thing he was going to do was tax you based on how far you drive to work where you pay more at the pump then the bloke next to you whom lives just down the road,around the corner a few blocks from work.  This bloke only uses his tiny car on extreme occasions so it's no problem for him! He just uses an e scooter to work most  days and can't figure out why so many people are upset at being taxed more.  Poor him for his ignorance. He doesn't get he is so lucky to be less then a mile or two from work. 

 

They actually have sensors on the roads installed to measure your car's blackbox to determine how much you will be taxed but the sensors are not activated as the bill was killed, Just last year they tried to revive it sort of quietly but people found out and belched loudly about it. Even many of the state people realized how retarded the bill was and part of that bill was to make some of I-5 a toll road which the majority of the money would go to some foreign nation that owns a lot of toll booths here in the USA. I can't remember which one.  

 

 

The predecessor to the Windstar the (Arowstar) was more of a truck design and had crap gas milage to follow suite.  The Windstar got 21mpg in city traffic and 24 on freeway and we went long periods without needing to fill up and this is without letting the tanks go much below halfway.  The Freestar was the last one but it had some kind of recall issues.

[MossMan]

Had a bout of steady drizzle in Everett.

 

On a side note, please for the love of god, get out of the left lane. If someone doing 70 comes up behind you, don’t just chill out at 61 while keeping pace with the semi to your right. It’s not your job to be a speedo justice warrior. You have no idea of the person behind you is seeing a sick family member or trying to make it to work on time.

 

I swear to god everyone in Western Oregon and Western Washington was tought road etiquette by a hippy grandma who believes that going faster than 55 is a crime.

 

Also blinkers. Use them.

We have the worst drivers in the country...hands down. You have to head up to Canada to find even worse drivers.

[Jesse]

We have the worst drivers in the country...hands down.

Everybody thinks that about where they live.

[Farmboy]

Has anyone been following the FV3-GFS? It is more aggessive with colder air in the PNW, and it doesn't undercut it like the old GFS does. Not that I really care about the weather at this point, but I do wonder if everyone is following the wrong GFS. Not too long from now it will replace the GFS. And it was correct in weakening Florence.

 

I just looked at the 6z run of that model and ones thing's for sure, it does a good job of sliding the cold air well east of the PNW..

 

Edit: can't speak to the other runs, haven't had time to look.

[TT-SEA]

Woke up to drizzle and dark skies... making it the 15th day with rain in the last 17 days.     That is impressive for September even for my location.

 

Now the sun is coming out and the clouds are breaking up.   

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Woke up to drizzle and dark skies... making it the 15th day with rain in the last 17 days. That is impressive for September even for my location.

 

Now the sun is coming out and the clouds are breaking up.

Tim, I hope one day your career and/or life can bring you to the Willamette Valley, where it doesn't rain most days out of the year.

[TT-SEA]

Tim, I hope one day your career and/or life can bring you to the Willamette Valley, where it doesn't rain most days out of the year.

 

Well... we average measureable precip on just 26% of the days in September.

 

Since September 6th... we have had rain on 88% of the days.    And for the entire month we are now at 65% of the days.     Its been much more persistently wet than usual this month.

 

For July and August combined... we had rain on 9 days which is 14% of the days.    That was actually close to normal but the total amounts for each month were below normal.

[Phil]

Everybody thinks that about where they live.

WA drivers are definitely slower than MD drivers.

[Jesse]

WA drivers are definitely slower than MD drivers.

I was just talking the other day with one of the grad students I am working with (from Pennsylvania) and they were going off about how terrible east coast divers are and how much better it is out here.

 

The whole topic seems pretty subjective, with predictable opinions based on location. Truth is there are bad drivers everywhere. It’s human nature to think that whatever traffic-based irritations you deal with on a day to day basis are incomparably bad compared to anywhere else. And of course public enemy number one will always be whoever is from x neighboring state or country.

[Phil]

[Phil]

FWIW, I felt the same way while driving in Connecticut a few years ago, so it’s not an east coast/west coast thing.

[Jesse]

12z ensembles looking crashier than Phil speeding through the Queen Anne Hill neighborhood at 74mph.

 

[Phil]

Or it could be the fact I’m a fairly aggressive, impatient driver myself. My preferred highway speed is ~ 80, which is the typical speed of left lane drivers on my normal route.

 

I get seriously pissed off when someone boxes me in turtling at 60-65. I’m already on the road for several hours a day, and would rather not add another hour to that.

[Jesse]

Worth noting that the current 850mb temps represent our coolest airmass of the season to date. I think they are 2-3C down here this morning.

 

I was noticing that as the models went cooler with the current trough they also tended to do better with the retrogression later this week. Probably has something to do with the ULL cutting off far enough west to allow this trough to dig a bit, which also puts it in a good spot to allow energy to drop down from the north in the mid-range.

[Phil]

Worth noting that the current 850mb temps represent our coolest airmass of the season to date. I think they are 2-3C down here this morning.

 

I was noticing that as the models went cooler with the current trough they also tended to do better with the retrogression later this week. Probably has something to do with the ULL cutting off far enough west to allow this trough to dig a bit, which puts it in a good spot to allow energy to drop down from the north in the mid-range.

This month has definitely turned out cooler than I thought it would be. That retrogression has not happened in the manner I predicted it would, either.

 

This might be result of the strong monsoonal component to the tropical forcing overwhelming any axisymmetric/ENSO structure. I’m not sure what it means yet, since forcing will undoubtably become more axisymmetric as insolation continues to drop.

 

But the idea of a cold late autumn and early winter across western North America still seems like a good bet. The month of November continues with the strong cold signal in the aggregate of QBO/tropical forcing analogs.

[Jesse]

Or it could be the fact I’m a fairly aggressive, impatient driver myself. My preferred highway speed is ~ 80, which is the typical speed of left lane drivers on my normal route.

 

I get seriously pissed off when someone boxes me in turtling at 60-65. I’m already on the road for several hours a day, and would rather not add another hour to that.

From everything I can tell, impatient, aggressive drivers who speed ridiculously, tailgate and weave through traffic are a much bigger problem than those who go the speed limit+5-10mph.

 

 

(speaking of Mallow nostalgia, he posted this video on his Facebook several months ago)

[Phil]

From everything I can tell, impatient, aggressive drivers who speed ridiculously, tailgate and weave through traffic are a much bigger problem than those who go the speed limit+5-10mph.

 

 

(speaking of Mallow nostalgia, he posted this video on his Facebook several months ago)

That’s definitely a problem, but it’s my theory that the speed differential itself is the root cause of volume delays. If you’ve noticed, vehicles tend to cluster in packs on most major highways, as faster drivers inevitably bank up against slower drivers, and try to circumvent them.

 

If one driver is going slowly, the drivers behind him/her must also drive more slowly And when it takes people longer to reach their destinations, there will obviously be more people on the roads at any given time, which exacerbates volume.

 

I’ve avoided accidents (to date) by making sure I don’t end up getting stuck in one of those “packs” of vehicles. It’s easy to become the victim of the worst driver in the pack if you’re not careful.

[Blizzard777]

I was just talking the other day with one of the grad students I am working with (from Pennsylvania) and they were going off about how terrible east coast divers are and how much better it is out here.

The whole topic seems pretty subjective, with predictable opinions based on location. Truth is there are bad drivers everywhere. It’s human nature to think that whatever traffic-based irritations you deal with on a day to day basis are incomparably bad compared to anywhere else. And of course public enemy number one will always be whoever is from x neighboring state or country.

I agree for 10 points

[Phil]

I think it would help things if the left lane had an elevated “minimum” speed limit of 70mph or something. If you want to drive 60mph, just don’t use the left lane. Or pay a large fine.

 

They’ve experimented with this on I-270N and it actually alleviated much of the volume delays. Then they turned it into an HOV lane, which defeated the entire purpose since the land was/is seldom used now.

[Jesse]

I think it would help things if the left lane had an elevated “minimum” speed limit of 70mph or something. If you want to drive 60mph, just don’t use the left lane. Or pay a large fine.

 

They’ve experimented with this on I-270N and it actually alleviated much of the volume delays. Then they turned it into an HOV lane, which defeated the entire purpose since the land was/is seldom used now.

 

I've toyed with the idea of there being "maximum" speed limits as well. I figure if you want to drive 90mph, most major cities have race tracks that host amateur days. If you go unreasonably far over it, even though you may or may not be the most important person on the road, you would pay a large fine. It could work, in theory.

 

Not sure if this crazy concept will ever take off in reality, though. Something tells me if maximum speed limits ever actually became a thing people would just complain about those who stayed within 10mph of them and target them as the root of all traffic problems anyway. Your thoughts?

[Front Ranger]

Like the October stuff, it’s merely a product of cognitive dissonance. We find reasons to believe what we want, even if we have to make them up.

 

It doesn’t matter how many times these ideas are quantitatively refuted. People still cling to them.

 

You have talked about your own October correlations. Stop being so dismissive.

[Front Ranger]

There is actually a pretty noticeable correlation between warm and dry falls and crappy winters. 2008 had some great periods of -PNA in late August/early September and again in October. October was a chilly, blocky month on the whole. That fall overall was far from a torch (mostly just the last half of November which historically correlates well to good things later).

 

Of course, 1991 was an unbroken blowtorch through all of September and October right up until the last few days of the month. Then went right back to torching shortly thereafter.

 

Yep. This.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF shows a mostly dry and pleasant weekend next week... most of the rain stays offshore.

[Phil]

There’s actually been research done on congestion and its mechanical source(s). Just a few slow drivers can exacerbate traffic 10-fold. It’s the “accordion effect”, as some call it.

 

https://www.nature.com/articles/srep01001

 

The exponential decay of VOC indicates that for both road networks traffic flows on 98% of the road segments are well below their designed road capacities, whereas a few road segments suffer from congestion, having a VOC > 1. We find that the major traffic flows in congested roads are created by very few driver sources, which can be addressed by our finding that the major usage of most road segments can be linked to their own surprisingly few driver sources.

[Phil]

Wavebreaking/blocking in the atmosphere makes for a pretty good metaphor, ironically.

 

When a wave breaks, it has a ripple-effect on waves behind it as phase speeds slow. The waves behind it also slow and break. It’s one of the primary drivers of the retrograding blocks responsible for PNW Arctic blasts.

[Front Ranger]

About a 1/2” of rain here in north seattle. SEA did it again and avoided the rain most of king county saw today.

 

SEA saw .05". Seattle WFO saw .02".

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF also shows some heavy from southern BC to northern CA next Monday and Tuesday.

[Jesse]

SEA saw .05". Seattle WFO saw .02".

It’s almost as if people that live in convergence zone hotspots don’t realize that they are the outliers, not the other way around.

[Phil]

You have talked about your own October correlations. Stop being so dismissive.

Correlations with a quantitative, physically-derived foundation for their existence? Sure. But (IMO) the October = destiny stuff is just voodoo. In most cases you’re just picking up ENSO/low-freq wave stations under changing seasonality.

 

In cases where low-freq/ENSO forcing is running the show without destructive intraseasonal interference or an anomalous (belated) seasonality of the monsoonal forcing, the October pattern may very well be indicative of the winter pattern.

 

However, in years with impotent low frequency forcings and/or belated/anomalous monsoonal seasonalities, the October pattern is completely meaningless.

 

Last year is a perfect example of this. And this year will probably be like last year in that regard, since the intraseasonal forcing/anomalous MMC is running the show.

[Phil]

Recall the MJO/wave-1 correlations, and how they change with the seasons. A phase-8 MJO will typically feature a western trough/SE-ridge in October, but the exact opposite response tends to occur in January.

 

And obviously, phase-8 (WHEM/Niño-like) convective forcing represents a completely different circulatory regime compared to phase-4 (EHEM/Niña-like). It’s all about the wavenumber, the meridional ITCZ structure, and the state of higher frequency interference (whether its constructive or destructive).

 

Right now, we’re observing a regime of destructive interference. IE: The wrong one to extrapolate from.

[TT-SEA]

It’s almost as if people that live in convergence zone hotspots don’t realize that they are the outliers, not the other way around.

SEA averages about 38 inches a year. Many of us around SEA are well over 5 inches this month. Some over 7 inches. SEA is around 1 inch.

 

So based on that being normal... then most places around SEA average 200-300 inches per year??

 

Dumb Jesse.

[Front Ranger]

SEA averages about 38 inches a year. Many of us around SEA are well over 5 inches this month. Some over 7 inches. SEA is around 1 inch.

 

So based on that being normal... then most places around SEA average 200-300 inches per year??

 

Dumb Jesse.

 

Most places in the Puget Sound region have not seen 7" this month. Not even close. Look at official stations.

 

You are the exception, not the rule. 95% of the time SEA is much more reflective of the region than you.

[TT-SEA]

Most places in the Puget Sound region have not seen 7" this month. Not even close. Look at official stations.

 

You are the exception, not the rule. 95% of the time SEA is much more reflective of the region than you.

So places like Arlington and North Bend average around 300 inches of rain per year?

 

Dumb Jared.

[Front Ranger]

Only 200-300 inches?  Based on your accounts, I would have thought you must average at least 700-800 inches a year.

 

He has lived through the wettest period ever in the wettest location on planet earth. Impressive.

[Front Ranger]

So places like Arlington and North Bend average around 300 inches of rain per year?

 

Dumb Jared.

 

Places like Arlington and North Bend have been the exception. That's all. 

 

Acting like SEA is the exception is dumb.

[BLI snowman]

SEA averages about 38 inches a year. Many of us around SEA are well over 5 inches this month. Some over 7 inches. SEA is around 1 inch.

 

So based on that being normal... then most places around SEA average 200-300 inches per year??

 

Dumb Jesse.

 

You live 30 miles from SEA. You're hardly representative of that area.

 

The wettest airport station in Western WA thus far has been Arlington at 4.31" this month. Everyone else is somewhere between 0.5" and 2.5". Not much evidence to suggest that many populated valley locations are over 5".

 

SEA has been on the dry side, but is still a lot more representative of the urban corridor than your spot. Tacoma Narrows is actually the driest spot at 0.63". Even rain forest Shelton is only at 2.63".

[Front Ranger]

SEA, Seattle WFO, OLM and BLI are all around 2" or lower for this month. So weird.